New Security Challenges: Policy Issues and Analytic Approaches

Pardee RAND Graduate School - Washington Defense Security Course

Dates:	October 19-23, 2009
Location:	RAND Corporation Washington Office 1200 South Hayes Street Arlington, VA 22202-5050
Time:	Monday - Thursday, October 19-22, 2009: 9:00 A.M.–5:00 P.M. Friday, October 23, 2009: 9:00 A.M. to 1:00 P.M.
Fee:	$2,500. All materials are provided. Graduate students can take the course (space available) for one credit at a cost of $1,100 with proof of full-time graduate student status. Payment is due at the time of registration. The application can be found here (PDF).
Brochure:	2009 Defense Seminar Brochure

The Program

September 11th drove home just how dramatically the security challenges that confront all nations have changed since the end of the Cold War. Today's threats include not only the conventional forces of potentially hostile nation states but also the threats of insurgency and of terrorist acts by non-state organizations. Hanging over this strategic landscape is the increasing proliferation of weapons of mass destruction that can be delivered by a variety of means. The transformed strategic situation challenges defense planners to take a dynamic approach in the development of security policy for their nations.

Since its inception in 2000, "New Security Challenges," an intensive weeklong program offered by the Pardee RAND Graduate School, has equipped participants with both an understanding of the most critical current policy challenges and the most up-to-date analytical techniques for addressing them. The program aims to give participants both knowledge and tools they can employ upon their return to their organizations. Past participants have been from a variety of countries and backgrounds, from defense to other national security agencies, and from private industry to academia.

Through the program, participants will:

Be exposed to the latest analytic approaches to key defense challenges
Gain a better understanding of select security topics of importance to the United States and other nations
Develop a better understanding of many of the most pressing issues that confront security planners in the United States and other nations
Participate in a hands–on exercise in strategic planning, examining the demands on U.S. military capabilities in a new strategic landscape.

This year's program will be held in RAND's Washington office, located near the Pentagon City metro station in Arlington, Virginia. Each session will be led by a prominent RAND researcher who has personally made a significant contribution to the topic at hand.

Lincoln Memorial Topics covered will include the following:

The evolution of alliance and coalition partnerships
The major issues and challenges in East Asia
Applicable lessons from past stability operations
How military forces transform
Theater-level campaign planning in today's environment
The evolving relationship between air and ground forces
High-resolution tactical models
Gaming techniques for strategists and planners
Missile defense technology and policy
Transforming intelligence agencies to be better prepared to deal with today's threats
Revolutions in military affairs since the early 20th century
Current challenges in Iraq—countering the IED threat

Curriculum

How the Pentagon Runs. This course segment provides an understanding of how the Pentagon’s budgeting and programming process works. It will include discussion of acquisition (OSD AT&L, services acquisition leader, program executive offices, and program managers), development of requirements (Joint Requirements Oversight Council, Joint Staff, Service chiefs, Service requirements officials), and the planning, programming, budgeting, and execution (PPBE) system (OSD Comptroller, OSD Program Analysis & Evaluation, Service comptrollers, Service chiefs, Service programmers).

America’s Role in Nation-Building: From World War II to Iraq. Past U.S. roles in nationbuilding missions, from the post–World War II occupations of Germany and Japan through the more recent operations in Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, and Kosovo, suggest lessons applicable to current efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq. James Dobbins will trace and discuss the difficulties encountered in both these current operations, including problems in planning, strategy, and execution, and will suggest ways to improve U.S. performance of such missions in the future.

Budget Challenges and Implications. During any normal budget formulation period, there are always important issues that have to be considered as the Secretary of Defense and the President put finishing touches on the budgetary proposals they have received from the defense components. This year, the challenges are extraordinary because of the convergence of a series of exogenous events. The international security situation, the growing economic burdens that face the nation, the desire to change force structure without a well-understood change in doctrine, and the extraordinary congressional interest in how these changes are expressed and implemented will require the most delicate application of Secretary Gates’ and Admiral Mullen’s skills. Charles Nemfakos’s lecture will informally explore all the avenues these converging issues create.

The Impact of Technology on the Future of U.S. and Allied Forces. Rapid advances in technology, especially information technology, are having a profound influence on the way the United States and its allies plan and execute military operations. This session will examine how the character of high-intensity operations has already changed irreversibly. It will then review how DoD and NATO are looking to couple emerging technologies with new operational concepts, thus enhancing their capabilities in stabilization operations and irregular warfare.

Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan. Following the initial success of U.S. and Afghan forces in overthrowing the Taliban regime in 2001, an increasingly violent insurgency began to develop. U.S. and coalition efforts in Afghanistan offer a useful opportunity to assess what works—and what does not—in counterinsurgency warfare. Rebecca Zimmerman will examine the insurgency in Afghanistan and ask three major questions: What is the nature of the insurgency in Afghanistan? How have the United States and NATO interpreted counterinsurgency? What does this mean for today’s efforts?

High-Resolution Modeling and Simulation for Joint Warfare Analysis. John Matsumura will discuss the evolution of high-resolution modeling and simulation to meet the demands of joint warfare analysis and planning. In particular, he will describe the RAND Joint Warfare Simulation and Analysis (JWSA) suite of models, modeling of network-centric forces, exploring advanced technologies (e.g., robotics), and understanding the effect of complex terrain. Exemplary analysis using these modeling tools will also be presented.

An Exercise-Based Look at Future Crisis Situations. A key feature of the course will be a table-top strategic planning exercise, led by Roger Molander and Peter Wilson, that will explore how the United States may have to response to a future domestic crisis. The exercise aims to identify what new and demanding capabilities will be needed—using a scenario in the relatively near future—and to elicit a menu of promising concepts from participants to meet those needs. Applying the RAND “Day After . . .” exercise methodology, groups will go though fast-moving steps in parallel with the same tasking and will compare the results of their deliberations in plenary sessions.

Unmanned Undersea Vehicles: Modeling and Concepts. Which military missions for unmanned undersea vehicles (UUVs) appear most promising to pursue in terms of military need, operational and technical risks, alternatives, and cost? To answer this question, RAND analysts assessed risks associated with using UUVs for advocated missions, identified non-UUV alternatives that may be more appropriate for such missions, and analyzed potential costs associated with UUV development and use. This course will explore the UUV missions that the analysts consider most promising.

Withdrawing from Iraq: Alternative Schedules, Associated Risks, and Mitigating Strategies. Congress provided resources in the fiscal year 2009 Defense Appropriations Act for an independent study to examine alternatives for the drawdown of U.S. forces from Iraq and for the transition of security responsibilities to the Iraqi forces. OSD turned to RAND to perform the study. This class will examine drawdown plans developed by RAND researchers that correspond to three schedules: drawdowns that remove the combat units within 12 months, within 18 months, and within the December 2011 deadline specified by the U.S.-Iraq Security Agreement.

Advances in Defense Modeling. The defense decision environment has grown more complex as a small number of planning scenarios, with some lesser included cases, has been replaced by an array of potential conflicts, each with unique demands. Exploratory modeling harnesses the capabilities of advanced computer hardware and software to illustrate possible outcomes across a broad range of hundreds or thousands of alternative cases. Ron Trees will discuss the state of the art in military modeling and present examples of the application of exploratory modeling to illustrate the utility of the technique.

Transformation and the Intelligence Community. As the military transforms, intelligence operations also face the challenge of transforming to meet new enemies and make use of new technologies. Surveillance technologies designed for the Cold War have been impressively adapted to support warfighters. But 9/11 demonstrated that ways of collecting and analyzing information that worked against the Soviet Union set the United States up to fail against a nonhierarchical, nonstate, networked set of adversaries. Greg Treverton will explore the challenges of transforming the intelligence community to face the threats of today and tomorrow.

Spatial Risk Analysis. In recent years, geographic information systems have gained widespread popularity among federal, state, and local organizations responsible for mitigating risks to U.S. national security. Beginning with the use of spatial analysis to identify the source of a cholera outbreak in 1854 and ending with current applications in managing the risk posed by insurgent’s use of IEDs in Iraq and Afghanistan, this discussion will address the various spatial analysis tools and methods that can be used to support national security efforts.

Insurgency and Counterinsurgency. The U.S. military has been heavily engaged in counterinsurgency operations in recent years. RAND has recently produced a series of studies on insurgency and counterinsurgency that have contributed to the understanding of the challenges experienced in Iraq and Afghanistan. John Gordon will review some of the key findings of these studies and offer insights on how the United States can better prepare for future counterinsurgency operations.

Understanding China’s International Behavior. China is a global actor of significant and growing importance. Its international behavior is altering the dynamics of the current international system, but it is not transforming its structure. China is now active in regions and on issues that were once only peripheral to its interests, and its continually changing global activism raises questions about its current and future intentions and the implications for global stability and prosperity. Evan Medieros’s lecture will examine how China views its security environment, how it defines its international objectives, how it is pursuing these objectives, and the consequences for U.S. economic and security interests.

Faculty

The faculty is selected from the RAND professional staff. They draw on their own cutting-edge research and a wealth of practical experience in presenting their courses.

Brien Alkire specializes in developing mathematical methods and analytical tools with a broad spectrum of applications, ranging from estimating the performance of military sensor and communication systems to analyzing performance implications of multiple force structure compositions and size. Prior to joining RAND, he worked as a senior systems engineer at Northrop Grumman, where he was involved in the development of sonar systems for the Virginia-class submarine.

Irv Blickstein joined RAND in April 2001 after retiring from the Navy Department. He leads research on acquisition, metrics, planning, programming, and budgeting in the Acquisition and Technology Policy Center. His expertise in PPBE led to a review of Army program and budget presentations and aviation and ship maintenance practices in organizations external to the U.S. Navy. He is currently serving as a member of the Chief of Naval Operations’s Executive Panel.

Robert Button is a senior researcher at RAND, where his research has primarily supported the Department of the Navy and the Office of the Secretary of Defense. He has worked extensively on naval operational issues, primarily in support of N-81, the Assessment Branch of the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, and has coauthored two studies on sea basing.

James Dobbins directs RAND’s International Security and Defense Policy Center. He has held State Department and White House posts including Assistant Secretary of State for Europe, Special Assistant to the President for the Western Hemisphere, Special Adviser to the President and Secretary of State for the Balkans, and Ambassador to the European Community. He is lead author of the three-volume The RAND History of Nation-Building and Occupying Iraq: A History of the Coalition Provisional Authority.

John Gordon joined RAND in 1997 following a 20-year U.S. Army career. He has participated in and led numerous studies for the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the Departments of the Army and Navy and has authored or coauthored numerous RAND reports. He has led or participated in RAND research projects for the governments of the United Kingdom, Sweden, Italy, and Germany. Additionally, he has authored over 20 articles on defense topics in professional journals.

Eric Heginbotham is a senior political scientist at RAND. He specializes in East Asian international relations, Chinese and Japanese foreign and security policy, and civil–military relations. He has published extensively in academic and policy journals and has co–authored RAND studies for the U.S. Air Force and various parts of the intelligence community.

Stuart Johnson is a senior research analyst at RAND, where he directs projects on military force transformation and force planning and programming. He has been the Chair for Force Transformation Studies at the National Defense University, Senior Scientist at the Naval War College, and Director of Systems Analysis at NATO Headquarters. His publications have focused on the impact of information on dominating the battlespace.

John Matsumura is a senior engineer at RAND who has worked on a wide range of defense-related research, with particular emphasis on understanding how advanced concepts and technologies can improve military capability. During his more than 15 years at RAND, his research has ranged from providing detailed assessments of system performance to shaping acquisition decisions and defense policy.

Roger Molander is a senior research scientist at RAND. His current focus is terrorism and the use of exercises to enable more effective decisionmaking on homeland security and counterterrorism strategy, policy, and operational issues. He has also recently worked on the challenges presented to critical U.S. infrastructures by major hurricanes and the challenges to the U.S. intelligence community presented by a possible influenza pandemic. A major component of his work is leading the application of RAND’s “Day After...” exercise methodology to these issues.

Charles Nemfakos is a senior fellow at RAND. He provides research, strategically oriented analyses, support, and advice to a broad variety of RAND clients. Previously, he was an executive with Lockheed Martin Corporation, Naval Electronics and Surveillance Systems. During his federal service, he served as a budget analyst and as a planner in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the Department of the Navy. He has been the recipient of multiple Distinguished Service Medals and has been recognized by three U.S. presidents with four presidential rank awards.

Walter Perry is a retired U.S. Army officer who has been with RAND since 1984. He has conducted extensive work on developing metrics for assessing military information systems. He recently co-led an Army-sponsored Iraq study that resulted in a multivolume, fully documented account of the conflict. He has published extensively at RAND and in several scholarly journals.

Jessie Riposo joined RAND in 2003 and has worked on a variety of research projects for the U.S. Navy, the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and the UK Ministry of Defence. The focus of her research has been industrial policy and defense acquisition. She is currently an operations research analyst at RAND.

Thomas Sullivan is a senior information scientist at RAND, where he conducts research on postconflict reconstruction, strategic planning, measures of effectiveness, spatial risk analysis, and statistical computing. In two tours of duty in Iraq, he has been responsible for the Coalition Provisional Authority’s reconstruction metrics program and conducted analysis in support of the Multi-National Corps–Iraq’s counter-IED campaign. Recently, he developed an approach for characterizing insurgent use of conventional and improvised weapons as well as a framework for identifying indicators of acquisition of weapons of mass destruction by terrorist groups.

Ron Trees is a senior operations research analyst at RAND who specializes in military analysis and gaming. His recent work includes applying combat models to a variety of analytical problems that examine potential conflicts in Korea and the Persian Gulf in order to assess the impacts of alternative threats, concepts of operation, and force developments.

Greg Treverton is director of the RAND Center for Global Risk and Security. His recent work has examined terrorism, intelligence, and law enforcement, with a special interest in new forms of public-private partnership. He has served in government for the first Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, handling Europe for the National Security Council and as vice chair of the National Intelligence Council. His latest books are Reshaping National Intelligence for an Age of Information (Cambridge University Press, 2001) and New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking (editor, RAND, 2003).

Peter Wilson is a senior political scientist who specializes in defense policy and planning research. He has conducted numerous studies for the Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force, the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and various foreign clients. He has also coauthored a variety of RAND studies and has published articles on a broad range of national security issues.

Rebecca Zimmerman specializes in terrorism and insurgency in Asia. Her current research focuses on counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan, where she recently served a five-month tour supporting RAND’s counter-IED work. Prior to her arrival at RAND, she conducted field research on the Moro Islamic Liberation Front in the southern Philippines and on popular attitudes toward radical Islam in Indonesia. She is proficient in Bahasa Indonesian and several other languages.

Pardee RAND Graduate School

The The Pardee RAND Graduate School, established in 1970, has evolved into a model for graduate programs in policy analysis. Students and faculty examine a wide range of issues, including national security studies. Graduates typically go on to careers in government or private industry, applying their research and strategic planning skills to such areas as defense, health, and education. Through courses and workshops, the school and its parent organization, the RAND Corporation, are at the forefront of defense-related policy analysis. The Pardee RAND Graduate School is a founding member of the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.

About the Program

The course is offered at RAND’s Washington office at Pentagon City, Arlington, VA. Sessions will be held from 9:00 to 5:00 with an hour lunch break on Monday through Thursday, October 19–22, and from 9:00 to 1:00 on Friday, October 23, 2009. RAND faculty will be available for informal discussion one-half hour before and after each session. Light refreshments will be provided. Social hours are planned for Monday and Wednesday evenings.

The fee for this course is $2,500. All materials are provided. Graduate students can take the course (space available) for one credit at a cost of $1,100 with proof of full-time graduate student status. Payment is due at the time of registration.

For more information, you can contact:

Jennifer Miller
RAND Corporation
1200 South Hayes Street
Arlington, VA 22202
Phone: 703/413-1100 x5409
Fax: 703/413-8111
Email: jmiller@rand.org

A PDF of the 2009 brochure is available online. The 2009 Application can be found here.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world.

What earlier participants had to say about the seminar:

“Excellent course. I look forward to attending future courses at RAND.”

“The exercises were engaging and provided substantive discussions of a high caliber.”

“Instructors were experts on their topics and it was wonderful learning directly from them.”

“Presentations were challenging and stimulated debate and discussion.”

“Well balanced mix of personnel and perspectives in the class.”

“Overall, a wonderful impression. The course was well worth the time.”

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