Whether successful or not, an ICBM test by North Korea would be very much against U.S. interests and President-elect Trump should act to counter it as early as possible. A turn to the basics of deterrence would be the path most likely to succeed.
Jan 6, 2017 USA Today
China has been a major proponent of regional security for Northeast Asia but appears disinterested in Republic of Korea (ROK) security against North Korean missile and nuclear weapon threats.
Sep 23, 2016 The Korea Times
North Korea's fifth and biggest nuclear test could have implications for U.S. policy toward the North, China's role in the region, and the stability of the Kim regime.
Sep 9, 2016 BBC
By insisting on a peace treaty with America, North Korea is probably seeking war. Its leaders likely hope a treaty would lead to a withdrawal of U.S. forces from South Korea, setting the stage for an invasion by the North.
May 18, 2016 The National Interest
It is hard to determine how China or Russia will respond to THAAD deployment in South Korea. THAAD deployment could change the dynamic and terms of the debate, leading to greater Chinese pressure on North Korea to curb its nuclear and missile threats.
Apr 5, 2016 The Cipher Brief
Kim Jong-un is probably seeking clear successes before his important Seventh Party Congress in May, when he wants to appear to be the all-powerful leader of North Korea.
Feb 8, 2016 BBC
Kim Jong Un has claimed that North Korea has an H-bomb. Whether this claim is accurate, or an exaggeration, remains to be seen. But it does highlight how the country's leadership culture requires Kim to periodically demonstrate his power.
Dec 16, 2015 CNN
While the latest confrontation between North and South Korea appears to be ending peacefully, it provides insight into future North Korean provocations. Words as weapons can work when they are aimed at North Korea's internal politics and backed up by a strong South Korean response supported by the U.S.
Aug 28, 2015 U.S. News & World Report
What might it mean if the U.S. deploys the terminal high-altitude air defense missile system known as THAAD in South Korea? Chinese pressure on South Korea to not allow THAAD deployment has become a major regional security issue.
Apr 3, 2015 The RAND Blog
Is North Korea really sincere about wanting to negotiate improved relations with South Korea and the United States? Or is it seeking to undermine the strength and sovereignty of its neighbor, just as Germany did before World War II?
Feb 3, 2015 The Korea Herald
Evidence points to North Korean involvement in the Sony hack. But it's impossible to know if top regime leaders sanctioned the attack or if it was carried out by another part of the government without their knowledge and consent. An unauthorized hack would only add to Kim Jong-un's worry over his regime's instability.
Dec 23, 2014 Newsweek
North Korea has tried pressuring Sony Pictures, the White House, and the UN to halt the release of a film that depicts Kim Jong-un in terms Kim would not want the world and especially his elites to see. After failing to stop the film diplomatically, North Korea may have been motivated to escalate its efforts.
Dec 11, 2014 Newsweek
The failure of the United States and South Korea to prevent North Korea from gaining significant quantities of weapons of mass destruction saddles those governments with serious military responsibilities, should North Korea go to war or should its government collapse.
Nov 19, 2014 The Korea Herald
Currently, three U.S. citizens are being detained in North Korea. It is likely that North Korea wants someone like a former U.S. president to come to North Korea instead of U.S. Ambassador Bob King, whose visits were cancelled.
Sep 18, 2014 The RAND Blog
With its collective self-defense policy, Japan assumes its responsibilities to support the defense of South Korea and regional security in general, an appropriate action given the economic and other independencies of the regional countries.
Jul 7, 2014 The Wall Street Journal
Whatever form of chest thumping comes next from Kim, it is clear that his goal is to put forward the appearance of strength and power, when in reality he faces instability at home and scorn from the international community.
Apr 8, 2014 The RAND Blog
The United States, South Korea and their allies would be well advised to factor in the possibility that North Korea could collapse in a fit of revolt and economic decay at any time, just as East Germany did, writes Bruce Bennett.
Jun 3, 2013 The Korea Herald
The U.S.-South Korean Extended Deterrence Policy Committee was setup to deter North Korean threats. The upcoming summit should ratify the progress of this effort, reassuring both the Korean and U.S. people that these threats are being managed.
May 7, 2013 The Korea Herald
The ROK and the United States should take actions to deter subsequent North Korean provocations while punishing the country for its nuclear weapon test. Such actions could convince it that the ROK/U.S. are serious and able to impose high costs, writes Bruce Bennett.
Feb 15, 2013 The RAND Blog
Kim Jong-Un's regime has placed outsized import on its missile launches—despite the risk of alienating the international community—to offset the lack of success across a wide range of topics, writes Bruce Bennett.
Dec 20, 2012 The RAND Blog
While many observers of North Korea have been surprised by the apparently peaceful ascension of Kim Jong-Un, there are reasons to believe that the situation in the North is not so stable, writes Bruce Bennett.
Dec 12, 2012 U.S. News & World Report
Every possible effort toward peaceful resolution and proliferation avoidance, even to the extent of offering safe passage and immunity to reprehensible characters in order to buy the safe transfer and control of such materials, is worth consideration, write James T. Quinlivan and Bruce W. Bennett.
Jul 26, 2012 RAND.org and GlobalSecurity.org
It is notable that North Korea's Politburo made the Ri announcement, suggesting a rise in power of the party relative to the military. The choice of Ri's successor is also curious, writes Bruce Bennett.
Jul 17, 2012 RAND.org and GlobalSecurity.org
War games are especially important as countries prepare to counter adversaries who use asymmetric strategies or weapons, forcing military planners to deal with unfamiliar threats, writes Bruce Bennett.
Jun 12, 2012 World Policy Blog
With his father's support over the last year, Kim Jong-Un has tried to rapidly reshape the North Korean leadership structure, giving him many new subordinates who are untried and lacking experience. Some will clearly make mistakes, writes Bruce Bennett.
Dec 21, 2011 RAND.org
Clearly, it's time for a new strategy, one that North Korea has been loathe to discuss: hasten Korean unification under South Korea's leadership, writes Bruce Bennett.
Nov 23, 2010 The Korea Herald
North Korea's apparent sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan marks a new low in the North's provocative behavior. While some would prefer to respond with carrots rather than sticks, it is time to take action that imposes political costs on Kim Jong-il, writes Bruce Bennett.
Jun 30, 2010 Global Asia, A Journal of the East Asia Foundation
In recent years, U.S. commanders of the ROK/U.S. Combined Forces Command have been unanimous in stating that CFC could defeat a North Korean invasion. Nevertheless, they have also expressed concern about the catastrophic damage that North Korea could do to the ROK before losing, writes Bruce Bennett.
Jan 21, 2010 The Korea Herald
For months, North Korea has been trying to upstage the summit between South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and U.S. President Barack Obama that is scheduled for June 16. Almost all Americans I know have heard of these North Korean provocations. But few have heard anything about the U.S.-ROK summit, writes Bruce Bennett.
Jun 15, 2009 The Korea Herald
North Korea's latest misbehavior highlights an uncomfortable truth: the failure of the United States and the international community to deter North Korean actions. In this case, it is pretty easy to see why North Korea has not been deterred, writes Bruce Bennett.
Jun 2, 2009 Chicago Tribune
North Korea spent weeks preparing to launch a ballistic missile that could reach the United States. It argued that the launch was intended to put a satellite into orbit. But a space launch vehicle is a ballistic missile used for a modestly different purpose, writes Bruce W. Bennett.
Apr 9, 2009 The Korea Herald
The new Korean government should fully recognize the North Korean military threats and respond by fielding military counters against dangerous North Korean military capabilities, writes Bruce Bennett.
Mar 13, 2008 The Korea Herald
Published commentary by RAND staff: Changes From Command Transfer, in Korea Times.
Dec 6, 2006 Korea Times
Published commentary by RAND staff: N Korea Policy Options, in United Press International.
Nov 28, 2006 United Press International
Published commentary by RAND staff: What's to Stop Kim Now?, in International Herald Tribune.
Oct 17, 2006 International Herald Tribune
Published commentary by RAND staff: On the Edge, in the Washington Times.
Oct 15, 2006 Washington Times
Is it time for Operation Korean Freedom? The regime change in Iraq has prompted some to urge regime change in the other two members of the President George W. Bush's "axis of evil," North Korea and Iran.
Jan 31, 2004 International Herald Tribune
While the mop-up of the war in Iraq dominates the news today, North Korea remains an unresolved crisis that could mean nuclear war for the United States.
Apr 13, 2003 Orange County Register
Published commentary by RAND staff.
Mar 7, 2003 United Press International
Every option the United States faces in resolving our nuclear dispute with North Korea is a horrible choice -- but some are more horrible than others, writes Bruce Bennett in an commentary.
Jan 14, 2003 San Diego Union-Tribune
While the level of mistrust between the U.S. and North Korea is too high for very close cooperation now, North Korea has apparently offered to provide terrorist-related information to Washington. The U.S. should pursue such discussions.
Dec 2, 2001 Los Angeles Times