Paul K. Davis

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Senior Principal Researcher; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Santa Monica Office

Education

Ph.D. in chemical physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; B.S., University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

Overview

Biography

Paul K. Davis is a senior principal researcher at the RAND Corporation and a professor of policy analysis in the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His research interests include strategic planning and methods for improving it, decisionmaking theory, counterterrorism, and advanced methods of analysis and modeling (notably exploratory analysis and multiresolution modeling). He has authored or coauthored widely read books on defense planning, capabilities-based planning, portfolio analysis, and deterrence and influence theory, as well as an integrative review on social science for counterterrorism. Before joining RAND, Davis was a senior executive in the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). He has served on numerous national panels for DoD, the national academy, and the Intelligence Community; he also is a regular reviewer on several professional journals. Davis received his Ph.D. in chemical physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Research Focus

Previous Positions

Senior Executive, Office of the Secretary of Defense

Recent Projects

  • Looming discontinuities in defense planning
  • Social science for counterterrorism, irregular warfare, and stability operations
  • Methods and tools for high-level decision support, especially portfolio management in acquisition and capabilities planning
  • Portfolio analysis methods and tools for strategic planning
  • Public support for insurgency and terrorism

Selected Publications

Paul K. Davis and Brian Michael Jenkins, Dilemmas of Intervention: Social Science for Stabilization and Reconstruction, RAND Corporation (MG-1119-OSD), 2011

Paul K. Davis and Paul Dreyer, RAND's Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT): Theory, Methods, and Reference Manual, RAND Corporation (TR-756), 2009

Paul K. Davis and Paul Dreyer, Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together, RAND Corporation (MG-849), 2009

Paul K. Davis, "Specifying the Content of Humble Social Science Models," Proceedings of the Summer Computer Simulation Conference, 2009, 2009

Paul K. Davis, et al., Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options, RAND Corporation (MG-662), 2008

Paul K. Davis et al., Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-Support Systems, RAND Corporation (MG-360), 2005

Paul K. Davis, Analytic Architecture for Capabilities-Based Planning Mission-System Analysis and Transformation, RAND Corporation (MR-1513), 2002

Paul K. Davis and Brian Michael Jenkins, Deterrence and Influence in Counterterrorism, RAND Corporation (MR-1619), 2002

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: PBS

Publications

Influencing Violent Extremist Organizations and Their Supporters without Adverse Side Effects - 2012

Dilemmas of Intervention: Social Science for Stabilization and Reconstruction - 2011

Looming Discontinuities in U.S. Military Strategy and Defense Planning: Colliding RMAs Necessitate a New Strategy - 2011

Structuring Analysis to Support Future Decisions about Nuclear Forces and Postures - 2011

Measuring the Effectiveness of Border Security Between Ports-of-Entry - 2010

Military Transformation? Which Transformation, and What Lies Ahead? - 2010

Paradigm-Level Issues in M&S: Historical Lessons and Current Challenges - 2010

Reflecting Warfighter Needs in Air Force Programs: Prototype Analysis - 2010

Simple Models to Explore Deterrence and More General Influence in the War with al-Qaeda - 2010

RAND's Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT): Theory, Methods, and Reference Manual - 2009

Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together - 2009

Specifying the Content of Humble Social-Science Models - 2009

Analysis of Strategy and Strategies of Analysis - 2008

Developing Resource-Informed Strategic Assessments and Recommendations - 2008

Finding Candidate Options for Investment: From Building Blocks to Composite Options and Preliminary Screening - 2008

Improving Strategic Planning at the Department of Defense - 2008

Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options - 2008

Setting Global Defense Strategy in the Face of Uncertainty - 2008

Analysis, Analysis Practices, and Implications for Modeling and Simulation - 2007

Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation: Theory and Experiments - 2007

Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking - 2007

A Portfolio-Analysis Tool for Missile Defense (PAT-MD): Methodology and User’s Manual - 2005

Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-Support Systems - 2005

Introduction to Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling (MRMPM) and Exploratory Analysis - 2005

Challenges in Virtual Collaboration: Videoconferencing, Audioconferencing, and Computer-Mediated Communications - 2004

Improving the Composability of Department of Defense Models and Simulations - 2004

Modern Decision Support Science Suggests New Methods and Tools to Support Military Decisionmaking - 2004

Assessing the Validity of Uncertain Models - 2003

Implications for Model Validation of Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling (MRMPM) and Exploratory Analysis - 2003

Metrics for the Quadrennial Defense Review’s Operational Goals - 2003

Military Applications of Simulation: A Selected Review - 2003

Modeling Adversaries and Related Cognitive Biases - 2003

Motivated Metamodels: Synthesis of Cause-Effect Reasoning and Statistical Metamodeling - 2003

New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking - 2003

RAND Review: Vol. 27, No. 1, Spring 2003 - 2003

Analytic Architecture for Capabilities-Based Planning, Mission-System Analysis, and Transformation - 2002

Deterrence and Influence in Counterterrorism: A Component in the War on al Qaeda - 2002

Integrating Transformation Programs - 2002

Measuring Interdiction Capabilities in the Presence of Anti-Access Strategies: Exploratory Analysis to Inform Adaptive Strategy for the Persian Gulf - 2002

Effects-Based Operations (EBO): A Grand Challenge for the Analytical Community - 2001

Exploratory Analysis and a Case History of Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling - 2001

EXHALT: Interdiction Model for Exploring Halt Capabilities in a Large Scenario Space - 2000

Effects of Terrain, Maneuver Tactics, and C4ISR on the Effectiveness of Long-Range Precision Fires: A Stochastic Multiresolution Model (PEM) Calibrated to High-Resolution Simulation - 2000

Ground Forces for a Rapidly Employable Joint Task Force: First-Week Capabilities for Short-Warning Conflicts - 2000

Analytical Methods for Studies and Experiments on "Transforming the Force" - 1999

Experiments In Multiresolution Modeling (MRM) - 1998

Resource Allocation for the New Defense Strategy: The DynaRank Decision-Support System - 1998

Transforming the Force: Suggestions for DoD Strategy - 1998

Exploratory Analysis of ''The Halt Problem": A Briefing on Methods and Initial Insights - 1997

Protecting weak and medium-strength states : issues of deterrence, stability, and decision making - 1997

Strategic Issues and Options for the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) - 1997

A Composite Approach to Air Force Planning - 1996

Adaptiveness in National Defense: The Basis of a New Framework - 1996

Aggregation, Disaggregation, and the 3:1 Rules in Ground Combat - 1995

Modeling Decisionmaking of Potential Proliferators as Part of Developing Counterproliferation Strategies - 1994

New Challenges for Defense Planning: Rethinking How Much Is Enough - 1994

An Introduction to Variable-Resolution Modeling and Cross-Resolution Model Connection - 1993

Defense Planning for the Post-Cold War Era: Giving Meaning to Flexibility, Adaptiveness, and Robustness of Capability - 1993

Proceedings of Conference on Variable-Resolution Modeling, Washington DC, 5-6 May 1992 - 1993

Stopping the North Korean Nuclear Program - 1993

Toward a Comprehensive Environment for Computer Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis - 1993

Extended Deterrence, Compellence and the ''Old World Order'' - 1992

Generalizing Concepts and Methods of Verification, Validation, and Accreditation (VV&A) for Military Simulations - 1992

Variable-Resolution Combat Modeling: Motivations, Issues, and Principles - 1992

Deterring or Coercing Opponents in Crisis: Lessons from the War with Saddam Hussein - 1991

Possible Postwar Force Requirements for the Persian Gulf: How Little Is Enough? - 1991

The Base of Sand Problem: A White Paper on the State of Military Combat Modeling - 1991

Thinking About Opponent Behavior in Crisis and Conflict: A Generic Model for Analysis and Group Discussion - 1991

An Analyst's Primer for the RAND/ABEL Programming Language - 1990

Planning for Long-Term Security in Central Europe: Implications of the New Strategic Environment - 1990

Representing Operational Strategies and Command-Control in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS) - 1990

A Conceptual Framework for Operational Arms Control in Central Europe - 1989

Central Region Stability in a Deep-Cuts Regime - 1989

Modeling of Soft Factors in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS) - 1989

National Security Planning in an Era of Uncertainty - 1989

Simulated Central Region Conflicts at Nominal Parity and Low Force Levels - 1989

Some Lessons Learned from Building Red Agents in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS) - 1989

Studying First-Strike Stability with Knowledge-Based Models of Human Decisionmaking - 1989

Variables Affecting Central-Region Stability: The 'Operational Minimum' and Other Issues at Low Force Levels - 1989

Applying Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Strategic-Level Gaming and Simulation - 1988

Explanation Mechanisms for Knowledge-Based Models in the RAND Strategy Assessment System - 1988

Game-Structured Analysis as a Framework for Defense Planning - 1988

Main Theater Warfare Modeling in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (3.0) - 1988

Overview of System Software in the RAND Strategy Assessment System - 1988

The Role of Uncertainty in Assessing the NATO/Pact Central Region Balance - 1988

Toward a Conceptual Framework for Operational Arms Control in Europe's Central Region - 1988

Analytic War Gaming with the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS) - 1987

Formalization of Tradeoff Rules and Other Techniques for Comprehending Complex Rule-Based Models - 1987

Modeling Wartime Decisionmaking at the National Command Level - 1987

A New Analytic Technique for the Study of Deterrence, Escalation Control, and War Termination - 1986

A New Methodology for Modeling National Command Level Decisionmaking in War Games and Simulations - 1986

Applying Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Strategic-Level Gaming and Simulation - 1985

Characterizing the Temperaments of Red and Blue Agents: Models of Soviet and U.S. Decisionmakers - 1985

Game-Structured Analysis as a Framework for Defense Planning - 1985

Search for a Red Agent to be Used in War Games and Simulations - 1985

Concepts and Models of Escalation - 1984

RAND's Experience in Applying Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Strategic-Level Military-Political War Gaming - 1984

The Role of Automated War Gaming in Strategic Analysis - 1984

Automated War Gaming as a Technique for Exploring Strategic Command and Control Issues - 1983

The RAND Strategy Assessment Center: An Overview and Interim Conclusions about Utility and Development Options - 1983

Treatment of Escalation in the RAND Strategy Assessment Center - 1983

Concepts for improving the military content of automated war games - 1982

Improving the Military Content of Strategy Analysis Using Automated War Games: A Technical Approach and an Agenda for Research - 1982

Observations on the Rapid Deployment Joint Task Force: Origins, Direction, and Mission - 1982