Paul K. Davis

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Media Resources

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Senior Principal Researcher; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Santa Monica Office

Education

Ph.D. in chemical physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; B.S., University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

Overview

Biography

Paul K. Davis is a senior principal researcher at the RAND Corporation and a professor of policy analysis in the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His research interests include strategic planning and methods for improving it, decisionmaking theory, counterterrorism, and advanced methods of analysis and modeling (notably exploratory analysis and multiresolution modeling). He has authored or coauthored widely read books on defense planning, capabilities-based planning, portfolio analysis, and deterrence and influence theory, as well as an integrative review on social science for counterterrorism. Before joining RAND, Davis was a senior executive in the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). He has served on numerous national panels for DoD, the national academy, and the Intelligence Community; he also is a regular reviewer on several professional journals. Davis received his Ph.D. in chemical physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Previous Positions

Senior Executive, Office of the Secretary of Defense

Recent Projects

  • Looming discontinuities in defense planning
  • Social science for counterterrorism, irregular warfare, and stability operations
  • Methods and tools for high-level decision support, especially portfolio management in acquisition and capabilities planning
  • Portfolio analysis methods and tools for strategic planning
  • Public support for insurgency and terrorism

Selected Publications

Paul K. Davis and Brian Michael Jenkins, Dilemmas of Intervention: Social Science for Stabilization and Reconstruction, RAND Corporation (MG-1119-OSD), 2011

Paul K. Davis and Paul Dreyer, RAND's Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT): Theory, Methods, and Reference Manual, RAND Corporation (TR-756), 2009

Paul K. Davis and Paul Dreyer, Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together, RAND Corporation (MG-849), 2009

Paul K. Davis, "Specifying the Content of Humble Social Science Models," Proceedings of the Summer Computer Simulation Conference, 2009, 2009

Paul K. Davis, et al., Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options, RAND Corporation (MG-662), 2008

Paul K. Davis et al., Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-Support Systems, RAND Corporation (MG-360), 2005

Paul K. Davis, Analytic Architecture for Capabilities-Based Planning Mission-System Analysis and Transformation, RAND Corporation (MR-1513), 2002

Paul K. Davis and Brian Michael Jenkins, Deterrence and Influence in Counterterrorism, RAND Corporation (MR-1619), 2002

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: PBS

Publications