Paul K. Davis

Senior Principal Researcher, RAND; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Santa Monica Office

Education

Ph.D. in chemical physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; B.S., University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

Media Resources

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Overview

Paul K. Davis is a senior principal researcher at the RAND Corporation and a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His research interests include strategic planning and methods for improving it, decisionmaking theory, counterterrorism, advanced methods of analysis and modeling (notably exploratory analysis and multiresolution modeling), and heterogeneous information fusion. He has authored or coauthored widely read books on defense planning, capabilities-based planning, portfolio analysis, and deterrence and influence theory, as well as an integrative review on social science for counterterrorism. Before joining RAND, Davis was a senior executive in the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). He has served on numerous national panels for DoD, the National Academy, and the Intelligence Community; he is also a regular reviewer of several professional journals. Davis received his Ph.D. in theoretical chemical physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Pardee RAND Graduate School Courses

Previous Positions

Senior Executive, Office of the Secretary of Defense

Recent Projects

  • DoD's Capabilities for Joint Analysis
  • Deterrence and Stability on the Korean Peninsula
  • Heterogeneous Fusion
  • Social Science for Counterterrorism (and follow-ons)

Selected Publications

Paul K. Davis, Walter L. Perry, John S. Hollywood, David Manheim, Uncertainty-Sensitive Heterogeneous Information Fusion: Assessing Threat with Soft, Uncertain, and Conflicting Evidence, RAND Corporation (RR-1200-Navy), 2016

Paul K. Davis, Analysis to Inform Defense Planning Despite Austerity, RAND Corporation (RR-482-OSD), 2014

Paul K. Davis and Angela O'Mahony, A Computational Model of Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism: a Prototoype for More-General Social-Scince Modelkng, RAND Corporation (TR-1220-OSD), 2013

Paul K. Davis and Peter Wilson, "The Looming Crisis in Defense Planning," Joint Forces Quarterly, 63, 2011

Paul K. Davis and Kim Cragin, Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together, RAND Corporation (MG-849), 2009

Paul K. Davis, Russell D. Shaver, and Justin Beck, Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options, RAND Corporation (MG-662-OSD), 2008

Paul K. Davis and Brian Michael Jenkins, Deterrence and Influence in Counterterrorism, RAND Corporation (MR-1619), 2002

Paul K. Davis (ed. and author), New Challenges for Defense Planning: Rethinking How Much Is Enough, RAND Corporation (MR-400-RC), 1994

Publications