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     <title>RAND: Paul K. Davis</title>
     <link rel="self" href="http://www.rand.org/about/people/d/davis_paul.xml"/>
     <updated>2013-05-20T11:00:03Z</updated>
     <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" hreflang="en" href="http://www.rand.org/about/people/d/davis_paul.html" />
     <rights>Copyright (c) 2013, The RAND Corporation</rights>
     <author>
       <name>RAND Corporation</name>
     </author>
     <id>http://www.rand.org/about/people/d/davis_paul.html</id>
	 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Specifying the Content of Humble Social-Science Models</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/reprints/RP1408-1.html</id>
   <published>2009-01-01T00:00:00Z</published>
   <updated>2009-01-01T00:00:00Z</updated>
   <summary type="html">Describes ways to specify important static content of social-science models for counterterrorism without dependence on a particular computer language or environment.</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/reprints/RP1408-1.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Specifying the Content of Humble Social-Science Models</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/reprints/RP1408.html</id>
   <published>2009-01-01T00:00:00Z</published>
   <updated>2009-01-01T00:00:00Z</updated>
   <summary type="html">Describes ways to specify important static content of social-science models for counterterrorism without dependence on a particular computer language or environment.
 </summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/reprints/RP1408.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Military Transformation? Which Transformation, and What Lies Ahead?</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/reprints/RP1413.html</id>
   <published>2010-06-04T10:38:00Z</published>
   <updated>2010-06-04T10:38:00Z</updated>
   <summary type="html">Discusses military transformation across the eight years of the George W. Bush administration, particularly those in which Donald Rumsfeld was secretary of defense.</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/reprints/RP1413.html" />
   
   <link rel="related" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Order the book from Potomac Books" href="http://www.potomacbooksinc.com/Books/BookDetail.aspx?productID=216183" />
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Military Applications of Simulation</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP20031005.html</id>
   <published>2003-01-01T00:00:00Z</published>
   <updated>2003-01-01T00:00:00Z</updated>
   <summary type="html">This chapter provides a selective overview of simulation activities taking place within the U.S. defense community.</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/external_publications/EP20031005.html" />
   
   <link rel="related" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.springer.com/math/applications/book/978-1-4020-7603-9" />
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Influencing Violent Extremist Organizations and Their Supporters without Adverse Side Effects</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WR909.html</id>
   <published>2012-03-09T16:00:00Z</published>
   <updated>2012-03-09T16:00:00Z</updated>
   <summary type="html">Discusses approaches, strategies, and an application to understanding and influencing public support of insurgency and terrorism.</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WR909.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Structuring Analysis to Support Future Decisions about Nuclear Forces and Postures</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WR878.html</id>
   <published>2011-12-22T11:30:00Z</published>
   <updated>2011-12-22T11:30:00Z</updated>
   <summary type="html">Explores how to evaluate future nuclear forces and postures and makes recommendations.</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WR878.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Reflecting Warfighter Needs in Air Force Programs: Prototype Analysis</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR754.html</id>
   <published>2010-07-23T15:18:00Z</published>
   <updated>2010-07-23T15:18:00Z</updated>
   <summary type="html">Documents the first phase of a study aimed at finding ways to ensure that warfighter needs are adequately represented as the Air Force manages its programs and budget.</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR754.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Introduction to Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling (MRMPM) and Exploratory Analysis</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WR224.html</id>
   <published>2005-03-22T09:34:00Z</published>
   <updated>2005-03-22T09:34:00Z</updated>
   <summary type="html"></summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WR224.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">RAND&apos;s Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT): Theory, Methods, and Reference Manual</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR756.html</id>
   <published>2009-10-20T16:30:00Z</published>
   <updated>2009-10-20T16:30:00Z</updated>
   <summary type="html">An evolved version of RAND&apos;s Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT) will assist high-level decisionmakers in thinking about balance, constructing good multifaceted options for consideration, and making subsequent choices.</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR756.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation: Theory and Experiments</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR392.html</id>
   <published>2007-04-16T10:07:00Z</published>
   <updated>2007-04-16T10:07:00Z</updated>
   <summary type="html">Man-machine exploration of the &apos;&apos;possibility space&apos;&apos; in strategic planning using massive scenario.</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR392.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">A Portfolio-Analysis Tool for Missile Defense (PAT-MD): Methodology and User&amp;rsquo;s Manual</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR262.html</id>
   <published>2005-10-18T15:47:00Z</published>
   <updated>2005-10-18T15:47:00Z</updated>
   <summary type="html">A tool to facilitate high-level discussion of program tradeoffs and adjustments in the Missile Defense Agency (MDA).</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR262.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Finding Candidate Options for Investment: From Building Blocks to Composite Options and Preliminary Screening</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR501.html</id>
   <published>2008-03-24T22:26:00Z</published>
   <updated>2008-03-24T22:26:00Z</updated>
   <summary type="html">A methodology and prototype tool, the Building Blocks To Composite Options Tool (BCOT), that identifies investment options for defense capability areas, then uses a screening technique to identify those meriting more-extensive assessment in a fuller portfolio-analysis framework.
  </summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR501.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR422.html</id>
   <published>2007-04-18T02:30:00Z</published>
   <updated>2007-04-18T02:30:00Z</updated>
   <summary type="html">A framework for supporting high-level decisionmaking, one that deals explicitly with uncertainty to produce flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR) strategies, and does so in support of both &apos;&apos;rational-analytic&apos;&apos; and &apos;&apos;intuitive&apos;&apos; decisionmakers.</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR422.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Improving Strategic Planning at the Department of Defense</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9284.html</id>
   <published>2008-01-28T04:19:00Z</published>
   <updated>2008-01-28T04:19:00Z</updated>
   <summary type="html">This research brief summarizes a monograph presenting a framework, methods, and tools to support capabilities analysis and related tradeoff work within the Department of Defense and the military services. The monograph deals with choice and risk.</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9284.html" />
   
   <link rel="related" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG662.html" />
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Setting Global Defense Strategy in the Face of Uncertainty</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9379.html</id>
   <published>2008-09-17T10:33:00Z</published>
   <updated>2008-09-17T10:33:00Z</updated>
   <summary type="html">This research brief describes an approach that can be used in today&apos;s highly fluid global security environment to compare the likely effectiveness, risks, and costs of alternative national defense strategies.</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9379.html" />
   
   <link rel="related" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG703.html" />
   <link rel="related" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG718.html" />
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Paradigm-Level Issues in M&amp;S</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/reprints/RP1422.html</id>
   <published>2011-02-04T08:15:00Z</published>
   <updated>2011-02-04T08:15:00Z</updated>
   <summary type="html">Discusses alternative ways to think about modeling and simulation.</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/reprints/RP1422.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Strategic Issues and Options for the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR)</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/documented_briefings/DB201.html</id>
   <published>1997-01-01T00:00:00Z</published>
   <updated>1997-01-01T00:00:00Z</updated>
   <summary type="html">This briefing develops and examines a wide range of strategic options for the defense program and posture.</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/documented_briefings/DB201.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Analytical Methods for Studies and Experiments on &quot;Transforming the Force&quot;</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/documented_briefings/DB278.html</id>
   <published>1999-01-01T00:00:00Z</published>
   <updated>1999-01-01T00:00:00Z</updated>
   <summary type="html">Analytical Methods for Studies and Experiments on &quot;Transforming the Force&quot;</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/documented_briefings/DB278.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Exploratory Analysis of &quot;The Halt Problem&quot;</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/documented_briefings/DB232.html</id>
   <published>1997-01-01T00:00:00Z</published>
   <updated>1997-01-01T00:00:00Z</updated>
   <summary type="html">Describes a prototype high-level </summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/documented_briefings/DB232.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
 <entry>
   <title type="html">Metrics for the Quadrennial Defense Review&amp;rsquo;s Operational Goals</title>
   <id>http://www.rand.org/pubs/documented_briefings/DB402.html</id>
   <published>2003-01-01T00:00:00Z</published>
   <updated>2003-01-01T00:00:00Z</updated>
   <summary type="html">Takes a first cut at identifying metrics for evaluating, advancing, and monitoring progress toward attaining the six operational goals highlighted in the 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review.</summary>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/xhtml" hreflang="en" title="Read More" href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/documented_briefings/DB402.html" />
   
 </entry>
 
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