Andrew R. Morral

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Associate Director, RAND Justice, Infrastructure, and Environment; Senior Behavioral Scientist
Washington Office

Education

Ph.D. in psychology, New School for Social Research

Overview

Biography

Andrew R. Morral is the associate director of RAND Justice, Infrastructure, and Environment and a senior behavioral scientist at the RAND Corporation. He manages a wide range of projects involving coastal and border security, emergency preparedness and response, defense support to civil authorities, transportation security, domestic intelligence programs, technology acquisition, and related topics. Morral's research expertise includes program evaluation, performance measurement, and modeling and simulation. He has published dozens of peer-reviewed reports in leading scientific and policy journals. Morral received his Ph.D. in psychology from the New School for Social Research.

Research Focus

Recent Projects

  • Measuring illegal border crossing between ports of entry
  • Deterrence in counterterrorism security
  • Terrorism risk modeling

Selected Publications

Morral, A.R., Jackson, B.A., Understanding the Role of Deterrence in Counterterrorism Security, RAND (OP-281), 2009

Rostker, B, Hanser, L, Hix, WM, Jensen, C, Morral, AR, Ridgeway, G, Schell, T., Evaluation of the New York Police Department Firearms Training and Firearms Discharge Review Process., RAND (MG-717), 2008

Eibner, C, Pacula RL, MacDonald, JM, Morral, AR, "Is the drug court model exportable? The cost-efffectiveness of a driving-under-the-influence court.," Journal of Substance Abuse Treatment, 31:75-85, 2006

Willis, H., Morral, A.R., Kelly, T., Medby J., Estimating Terrorism Risk, RAND (MG-388), 2005

Ramchand, R., MacDonald, J, Haviland, A., and Morral, A.R., "A developmental approach for measuring the seriousness of crimes," Journal of Quantitative Criminology

Publications

Reducing the Cost and Risk of Major Acquisitions at the Department of Homeland Security - 2013

Toolkit for Weighting and Analysis of Nonequivalent Groups: A Tutorial for the twang Package - 2013

Air Attack Against Wildfires: Understanding U.S. Forest Service Requirements for Large Aircraft - 2012

Efficient Aviation Security: Strengthening the Analytic Foundation for Making Air Transportation Security Decisions - 2012

Identifying a Cost-Effective Aviation Fleet for the U.S. Forest Service - 2012

Modeling Terrorism Risk to the Air Transportation System: An Independent Assessment of TSA's Risk Management Analysis Tool and Associated Methods - 2012

Measuring Illegal Border Crossing Between Ports of Entry: An Assessment of Four Promising Methods - 2011

The Effectiveness of Community-Based Delivery of an Evidence-Based Treatment for Adolescent Substance Use - 2011

Using a Cross-Study Design to Assess the Efficacy of Motivational Enhancement Therapy-Cognitive Behavioral Therapy 5 (MET/CBT5) in Treating Adolescents with Cannabis-Related Disorders - 2011

Associations Between Abstinence in Adolescence and Economic and Educational Outcomes Seven Years Later Among High-Risk Youth - 2010

Before Disaster Strikes: Imperatives for Enhancing Defense Support of Civil Authorities - 2010

How Perceptions of Mortality and HIV Morbidity Relate to Substance Abuse Problems and Risky Sexual Behaviors Among Former Juvenile Offenders - 2010

Long-term Effect of Community-Based Treatment: Evidence from the Adolescent Outcomes Project - 2010

Shaping Smoking Cessation in Hard-To-Treat Smokers - 2010

Seven-year Life Outcomes of Adolescent Offenders in Los Angeles - 2009

Understanding the Role of Deterrence in Counterterrorism Security - 2009

A Prospective Investigation of Suicide Ideation, Attempts, and Use of Mental Health Service Among Adolescents in Substance Abuse Treatment - 2008

An Application of the Principal Stratification to Control for Institutionalization at Follow-Up in Studies of Substance Abuse Treatment Programs - 2008

Assessing the New York City Police Department Firearm Training and Firearm-Discharge Review Process - 2008

Evaluation of the New York City Police Department Firearm Training and Firearm-Discharge Review Process - 2008

Inconsistencies in Self-Reported Drug Use By Adolescents in Substance Abuse Treatment: Implications for Outcome and Performance Measurements - 2008

The Longitudinal Association Between Substance Use and Delinquency Among High-Risk Youth - 2008

Contingencies for Change in Complacent Smokers - 2007

Interpreting Treatment Effects When Cases Are Institutionalized After Treatment - 2007

Interpreting Treatment Effects When Cases Are Institutionalized After Treatment - 2007

Smoking Rates Among Adolescents in Substance Abuse Treatment Programs - 2007

The Efficacy of the Rio Hondo DUI Court: A 2-Year Field Experiment - 2007

Using Outcomes to Assess Teen Substance-Use Treatment Programs -- How Feasible? - 2007

Acculturation and Driving Under the Influence: A Study of Repeat Offenders - 2006

Acculturation and Driving Under the Influence: A Study of Repeat Offenders - 2006

Is the Drug Court Model Exportable? The Cost-Effectiveness of a Driving-Under-The-Influence Court - 2006

Marijuana Use and Depression Among Adults: Testing for Causal Associations - 2006

Perspectives on Therapeutic Treatment from Adolescent Probationers - 2006

Predicting DUI Recidivism: Personality, Attitudinal, and Behavioral Risk Factors - 2006

Reducing Substance Use Improves Adolescents' School Attendance - 2006

The Relative Effectiveness of 10 Adolescent Substance Abuse Treatment Programs in the United States - 2006

Drink-Driving and DUI Recidivists' Attitudes and Beliefs: A Longitudinal Analysis - 2005

Dynamic Effects Among Patients' Treatment Needs, Beliefs, and Utilization: A Prospective Study of Adolescents in Drug Treatment - 2005

Estimating Terrorism Risk - 2005

Shaping Reduced Smoking in Smokers Without Cessation Plans - 2005

Effectiveness of Community-Based Treatment for Substance-Abusing Adolescents: 12-Month Outcomes of Youths Entering Phoenix Academy or Alternative Probation Dispositions - 2004

Evaluating Substance Abuse Treatment Programs for Adolescent Probationers - 2004

How Can Repeat Drunk Drivers Be Influenced to Change? Analysis of the Association Between Drunk Driving and DUI Recidivists' Attitudes and Belief - 2004

Improving Contingency Management Programs for Addiction - 2004

Propensity Score Estimation with Boosted Regression for Evaluating Causal Effects in Observational Studies - 2004

Shaping Smoking Cessation Using Percentile Schedules - 2004

Adolescent Social Relationships and the Treatment Process: Findings from Quantitative and Qualitative Analyses - 2003

An Evaluation of Substance Abuse Treatment Services for Juvenile Probationers at Phoenix Academy of Los Angeles - 2003

An Evaluation of Substance Abuse Treatment Services for Juvenile Probationers at Phoenix Academy of Los Angeles - 2003

Measurement of Adolescent Drug Use - 2003

Retention of Court-Referred Youth in Residential Treatment Programs: Client Characteristics and Treatment Process Effects - 2003

The Influence of Partner Drug Use and Relationship Power on Treatment Engagement - 2003

A Decade of Drug Treatment Court Research - 2002

Evidence Does Not Favor Marijuana Gateway Effects Over a Common-Factor Interpretation of Drug Use Initiation: Responses to Anthony, Kenkel, & Mathios and Lynskey - 2002

Phoenix Academy at Lake View Terrace, California: Clinical Manual and Program Description of an Adolescent Therapeutic Community - 2002

Reassessing the Marijuana Gateway Effect - 2002

Using Marijauna May Not Raise the Risk Of Using Harder Drugs - 2002

Drug Courts: A Conceptual Framework - 2001

Technology Transfer Through Performance Management: The Effects of Graphical Feedback and Positive Reinforcement on Drug Treatment Counselors' Behavior - 2001

Hardcore Drug Users Claim to be Occasional Users: Drug Use Frequency Underreporting - 2000

Identifying Methadone Maintenance Clients at Risk for Poor Treatment Response: Pretreatment and Early Progress Indicators - 1999

Reducing Drug Use by Encouraging Alternative Behaviors - 1999

Influence of Emotional Engagement and Habituation on Exposure Therapy for PTSD - 1998

MMPI Profiles of Opiate Addicts: Predicting Response to Treatment - 1998

Assessing the Helping Alliance and Its Impact in the Treatment of Opiate Dependence - 1997

Natural Classes of Treatment Response - 1997

Reinforcing Operants Other Than Abstinence in Drug Abuse Treatment: An Effective Alternative for Reducing Drug Use - 1997

Contingent Reinforcement of Group Participation Versus Abstinence in a Methadone Maintenance Program - 1996