Raffaele Vardavas

Mathematician; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Santa Monica Office


M.Sci. and Ph.D. in physics, Imperial College London


Raffaele Vardavas is a mathematician at RAND and a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His expertise is primarily in constructing and analyzing epidemic models for the spread of infectious disease using both population-level and agent-based models. Infectious disease projects that he has worked on include modeling HIV and the projected impact of test and treat; modeling the threat of a smallpox outbreak and control policy alternatives that include both vaccination and the use of antivirals; modeling the coupled dynamics of seasonal influenza epidemics and agents behavior toward vaccination using an agent based inductive game approach. Other modeling work in Health include healthcare utilization forecasts; illicit drug utilization and cost to society; the COMPARE health policy simulation project that models the impact of the health reforms. Non-Health projects include constructing a game-theoretic evolutionary economics agent based model on carbon markets to project the impact of different climate change policy alternatives and on distribution and repair in military logistic. Raffaele has a Ph.D. in physics from Imperial College London. Prior to joining RAND, he was a post-doctorate researcher at UCLA in applied mathematics and later in bio-mathematics.

Recent Projects

  • Health Outcomes, Risk Perceptions and Preventive Behavior on Social Networks
  • COMPARE modeling
  • Economics of Treating Viral STIs
  • Epidemic control options in the event of a smallpox bioterrorism attack.
  • Modeling yearly health and cost burden of illicit drugs in the US.