A Methodology for Developing Army Acquisition Strategies for an Uncertain Future – 2007

John E. Peters, Bruce Held, Michael V. Hynes, Brian Nichiporuk, Christopher Hanks, Jordan Fischbach

The Army acquisition community stands at a critical juncture and the future presents even more challenges for which the Army must prepare, including dangerous adversaries, the reallocation of combat tasks, and the prospect of budget pressures.

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What the Army Needs to Know to Align Its Operational and Institutional Activities - 2007

Frank Camm, Cynthia R. Cook, Ralph Masi, Anny Wong

As the U.S. Army transforms its operating force, inevitably the institutional Army ó the “generating force” that fills and sustains the Army´s combat units ó must change as well. The Army must transform its institutional activities to (1) align them with operating forces in ways that improve support, and (2) release resources from institutional activities that the Army can use to add new brigades and weapon systems. This document describes a way for the Army leadership to negotiate and establish performance goals for institutional activities that give the Army effective control over the alignment of its operational and institutional elements while preserving flexibility and initiative within institutional activities to choose how to meet these goals.

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Assessing the Value of U.S. Army International Activities - 2006

Jefferson P. Marquis, Richard E. Darilek, Jasen J. Castillo, Cathryn Thurston, Anny Wong, Cynthia Huger, Andrea Mejia, Jennifer D.P. Moroney, Brian Nichiporuk, Brett Steele

A number of important steps have been taken in recent years to improve the planning and management of Army International Activities (AIA). Still, a need remains, and is widely recognized, for a high–level assessment mechanism to allocate AIA resources more efficiently, execute AIA programs more effectively, and highlight the contributions of AIA to the National Military Strategy, the DoD Security Cooperation Guidance, and The Army Plan. This report presents a framework for assessing the value of the Army´s non–combat interactions with other militaries. It provides an overview of AIA programs and establishes their connection to the U.S. government´s current strategy for security cooperation. It also provides a matrix of eight AIA “ends” derived from top–level national and Army guidance, and eight AIA “ways,” which summarize the various capabilities inherent in AIA programs. Next, the report presents a method for linking AIA “ends” and “ways” that involves a theoretical rationale for security cooperation, selection criteria for AIA “output” and “outcome” indicators, and related measures of performance and effectiveness. The report also describes the new online AIA Knowledge Sharing System (AIAKSS) that is being used to solicit programmatic and assessment data from AIA officials in the Army´s Major Commands. In addition, the report includes the results of three test cases — involving the Army Medical Department, the National Guard Bureau, and U.S. Army South — that helped to identify potential problems in evaluating AIA and to suggest improvements in the proposed AIA assessment mechanism. Finally, the report contains an extensive list of “output” and “outcome” indicators that have been reviewed by AIA officials throughout the Army.

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Army Medical Department Transformation: Executive Summary of Five Workshops - 2006

David E. Johnson, Gary Cecchine, Jerry M. Sollinger

A series of Army Medical Command workshops assessed the effect of the Future Force doctrine on the Health Service Support system’s ability to deliver medical care on the battlefield. The authors summarize the findings from the five workshops. Based on the scenarios and the data gathered during the five workshops, the authors conclude that the distances envisioned for the Future Force battlefield pose problems for medical support. The dispersion creates a situation in which it will be unlikely that a medic will be nearby when a soldier is wounded and in which ground evacuation of casualties will be difficult. Given the challenges posed by these scenarios, it also appeared that the medical echelons above the Unit of Action could expect a substantial patient load. Finally, they concluded that better simulations are needed to help the Army Medical Department explore questions of medical force structure in more detail.

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Assessing the Value of U.S. Army International Activities - 2006

Jefferson P. Marquis, Richard E. Darilek, Jasen J. Castillo, Cathryn Thurston, Anny Wong, Cynthia Huger, Andrea Mejia, Jennifer Moroney, Brian Nichiporuk, Brett Steele

A number of important steps have been taken in recent years to improve the planning and management of Army International Activities (AIA). Still, a need remains, and is widely recognized, for a high-level assessment mechanism to allocate AIA resources more efficiently, execute AIA programs more effectively, and highlight the contributions of AIA to the National Military Strategy, the DoD Security Cooperation Guidance, and The Army Plan. This report presents a framework for assessing the value of the Army’s non-combat interactions with other militaries. It provides an overview of AIA programs and establishes their connection to the U.S. government’s current strategy for security cooperation. It also provides a matrix of eight AIA “ends,” derived from top-level national and Army guidance, and eight AIA “ways,” which summarize the various capabilities inherent in AIA programs. Next, the report presents a method for linking AIA “ends” and “ways” that involves a theoretical rationale for security cooperation, selection criteria for AIA “output” and “outcome” indicators, and related measures of performance and effectiveness. The report also describes the new online AIA Knowledge Sharing System (AIAKSS) that is being used to solicit programmatic and assessment data from AIA officials in the Army’s Major Commands. In addition, the report includes the results of three test cases — involving the Army Medical Department, the National Guard Bureau, and U.S. Army South — that helped to identify potential problems in evaluating AIA and to suggest improvements in the proposed AIA assessment mechanism. Finally, the report contains an extensive list of “output” and “outcome” indicators that have been reviewed by AIA officials throughout the Army.

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High-Performance Computing Opportunities and Challenges for Army R&D - 2006

Robert H. Anderson, Amado Cordova, Anthony C. Hearn, Rosalind Lewis, John Matsumura, Isaac R. Porche, III, Randall Steeb

The purpose of this study was to identify key potential users of high-performance computing (HPC) within the Army science and technology community and any barriers that prevent full use of current and planned HPC resources. A main study goal was to help develop an Army HPC strategy and build an HPC initiative that facilitates that strategy, thereby allowing the Army to compete effectively for Department of Defense HPC resources and to ensure that they are used for maximum effect in attacking the most difficult and computationally intensive research problems critical to future force and future combat systems achievement. Particular attention was given to applications of HPC in biotechnology and biomedicine and modeling and simulation of complex battlefield wireless network communication systems.

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Human Resource Management and Army Recruiting - Analyses of Policy Options - 2006

James N. Dertouzos, Steven Garber

U.S. Army Recruiting Command (USAREC) is faced with the challenge of ensuring that the flow of qualified volunteers is adequate to meet future active-duty accession requirements. This report documents research methods, findings, and policy conclusions from a project analyzing human resource management options for improving recruiting production. It details research designed to develop new insights to help guide future recruiter management policies. The research involves econometric analyses of three large and rich datasets. The first analysis compares the career paths of enlisted personnel, including recruiters. The second analyzes individual recruiter characteristics and links those characteristics with their productivity, controlling for a variety of independent factors. Finally, the research focuses on station-level recruiting outcomes, paying close attention to the management options that can affect recruiter production and effort. These empirical analyses demonstrate that various types of human resource management policies can be very helpful in meeting the Armyís ambitious recruiting requirements. For example, the findings have implications for human resource policies in the areas of selecting soldiers for recruiting duty, assigning recruiters to stations, missioning to promote equity across recruiters, missioning to increase recruiter productivity, using promotions to motivate and reward recruiters, and screening out recruiters who are under-producing. Although the gains from any individual policy appear to be modest, the cumulative benefits of implementing multiple policies can save the Army hundreds of millions of dollars annually. This work will interest those involved in the day-to-day management of recruiting resources as well as researchers and analysts engaged in analyses of military enlistment behavior.

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The Impact of Network Performance on Warfighter Effectiveness - 2006

Isaac R. Porche, III, Bradley Wilson

The concept of network-centric operations (NCO) involves developing communications and other linkages among all elements of a force to create shared awareness of operations. The objective of the research effort described in this report is to quantify the marginal impact of networking as part of an effort to evaluate the concept of NCO. We identified three key parameters of networking capability that affect warfighter effectiveness: (1) sense/acquire data (sensing parameters); (2) disseminate and communicate data (communication parameters); and (3) interpret, fuse, and react to the data (cognitive parameters). One specific objective of this report is to discuss the relative impact of all three families of parameters on overall warfighter effectiveness. The authors used a multi-agent-based, force-on-force simulator tool called Map Aware Non-Uniform Automata (MANA) to evaluate warfighter effectiveness for a simple urban scenario. Tens of thousands of MANA runs were conducted in an attempt to examine the impact of varied cognitive, communication, and sensing factors on warfighter effectiveness. Statistical analysis of simulation results quantified the correlation between the factors discussed above and warfighter effectiveness.

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Joint Paths to the Future Force: A Report on Unified Quest 2004 - 2006

David E. Johnson, Peter A. Wilson, Richard E. Darilek, Laurinda L. Zeman

The central study question for the Unified Quest 2004 wargame (UQ 04), cosponsored by Joint Forces Command and the United States Army, focused on identifying the concepts and capabilities required to counteract an adversary who, having lost most of his conventional capability, seeks victory through a combination of protracted, unconventional operations and use of WMD. The overarching purpose of UQ 04 was to explore concepts and capabilities that have come together to form joint operational concepts and — continuing a process begun in Unified Quest 2003 — to improve the definition of these joint and future force concepts and capabilities; to identify key issues, insights, and implications raised by them; and to address specific Unified Quest issues. This report provides both a description and an analysis of UQ 04. It identifies that wargame’s scenario, assumptions, central questions and objectives, study issues, and essential elements of analysis. It includes observations by RAND analysts who attended UQ 04 and their assessments of how well the wargame addressed the five study issue areas featured in the game: battlespace awareness; joint command and control; force application; force protection, and focused logistics. The report also includes recommendations and suggestions by the RAND analysts on ways to improve the JFCOM-TRADOC future warfare studies program.

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Medical Risk in the Future Force Unit of Employment: Results of the Army
Medical Department Transformation Workshop V - 2006

David E. Johnson, Gary Cecchine

The Army Medical Department (AMEDD) Transformation Workshop (ATW) V, which was conducted at the RAND Corporation Washington Office 25-28 May 2004, is described in this report. It includes an analysis and discussion of the workshop results. This workshop continued the assessment, begun in ATWs I-IV, of the medical risks associated with emerging Army operational concepts and the capacity of the AMEDD to mitigate these risks. The principal purpose of ATW V was to continue the process of providing casualty demand estimates that will need to be addressed by the health service support (HSS) system at echelons above the unit of action (UA). AMEDD subject matter experts supported the workshop and examined the ability of an envisioned UA medical structure to support Future Force combat operations that generated 429 casualties in an approximately 100-hour combat simulation provided by the U.S. Army. The HSS system in the UAs was heavily taxed, and the residual demand for evacuation and care at higher echelons was similarly significant. Nearly two-thirds of the casualties were determined to be ready for evacuation to these higher echelons; their disposition will necessarily depend upon capabilities at those echelons. The complete effect of the casualties examined during ATW V on the HSS system is not known, because the HSS system at higher echelons has yet to be fully developed. The results of the workshop will provide information valuable in designing the medical system at those echelons.

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Options for Transitional Security Capabilities for America - 2006

Terrence K. Kelly

In Iraq and elsewhere, the United States finds itself in need of a law enforcement capability for stability operations. How should such a force be created and what specific capabilities should it embody? This report examines the characteristics of such a force and the functional and organizational challenges that must be faced in creating it. The author evaluates five major options, both civilian and military, for creating these forces and assesses each option under nine criteria for effectiveness. He concludes by giving a clear picture of each option’s relative strengths and weaknesses and suggests areas to be examined to complete the picture of how best to create the force.

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Something Old, Something New: Army Leader Development in a Dynamic Environment - 2006

Henry A. Leonard, J. Michael Polich, Jeffrey D. Peterson, Ronald E. Sortor, S. Craig Moore

Changes in the world over the past two decades have created a dynamic situation — volatile, unpredictable, and novel in many respects — making the conduct of military operations more complex and varied than in the past. This report examines the nature of demands on Army officers in the contemporary operating environment and their implications for leader development. This research arose from concerns about both the current operational environment and a closely related development, the Army’s ongoing transformation of its structure, technologies, and operating techniques. How will the Army prepare its future leaders for the new demands that will inevitably be placed on them? The report describes analysis and findings on three major topics: the general attributes and intellectual qualities required by leaders in the modern environment; specific operational skills and depth the new environment requires; and the extent to which career paths can provide a foundation of operational experience while still meeting other demands on the officer corps. Although the report concentrates on changes in leader skills needed to keep pace with the evolving operating environment, it also re-emphasizes that the Army should continue to acquire and develop leaders with the character traits and values that have always been the underpinning of effective leadership. Beyond that essential base of leadership, the findings imply that considerably more needs to be done to prepare leaders to meet the challenges of the contemporary environment and to continually learn and adapt to new circumstances.

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Sustainment of Army Forces in Operation Iraqi Freedom - 2005

Eric Peltz, Marc Robbins, Kenneth J. Girardini, Rick Eden, John Halliday, Jeffrey Angers

By virtually every account, the major combat operations of Operation Iraqi Freedom that toppled Saddam Hussein´s regime in the spring of 2003 were a remarkable success. Yet there is a general belief within the Army and the broader defense community, supported by RAND Arroyo Center´s analysis, that this success was achieved despite logistics problems that hampered materiel sustainment. However, moving beyond the initial impressions that emerged quickly following operations, Arroyo´s research has indicated that forces and sustainment capabilities were sufficiently robust to overcome the problems and effectively execute missions. This monograph describes how well the Department of Defense logistics system supported Army forces in Operation Iraqi Freedom, documents the major reasons for shortfalls in performance, provides recommendations for improvement, and points to questions raised with respect to the design of future forces.

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Alternative Futures and Army Force Planning: Implications for the Future Force Era - 2005

B. Nichiporuk

To help the U.S. Army with force planning for the 2025 era, this study uses the tool of alternative futures analysis. It bounds the future the Army will face by laying out a representative spectrum of different “future worlds” that hopefully illustrate the complete universe of future missions. By mixing and matching possible trends across five key areas (geopolitics, economics, demographics, technology, and environment), six alternative futures are created: “U.S. unipolarity” and “democratic peace” (best cases), “major competitor rising” and “competitive multipolarity” (medium-good cases), “transnational web” (medium-bad case), and “chaos/anarchy” (worst case). After explaining the main features of each future, the study creates an appropriate “Army type” for each, through a three-step process: (1) a representative combat scenario was created for each future, (2) the strategies-to-tasks methodology was used to set out the raw capabilities needed for a given scenario, and (3) the force characteristics and size required to meet the needs presented in the capability statements were formulated. All the needed characteristics were then bundled together to form a basic Army type for a given future. The report concludes with a review and discussion of the common desired characteristics found across the six types.

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American Public Support for U.S. Military Operations from Mogadishu to Baghdad - 2005

E. Larson, B. Savych

The support of the American public is widely held to be a critical prerequisite for undertaking military action abroad. This monograph examines American public opinion about the use of military force in support of the global war on terrorism (GWOT). Its purpose is to describe public attitudes toward wars and other large military operations over the last decade, to delineate the sources of support and opposition for each war or operation, to identify the principal fault lines in support, and to illuminate the factors that are consistent predictors of support for and opposition to military operations. Although the focus is on public opinion toward U.S. military operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other GWOT-related theaters of action, the authors also examine public opinion on a number of military operations conducted before the attacks of September 11, 2001, including the final stages of the U.S. military intervention in Somalia and the U.S. interventions in Haiti, Bosnia, and Kosovo.

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The Effects of Equipment Age on Spare Part Costs: A Study of M1 Tanks - 2005

Carol Fan, Eric Peltz, Lisa Pelled Colabella

As the average ages of Army weapon systems increase, it has been assumed that this is leading to increasing maintenance costs. However, it has proved difficult to quantitatively “validate” and estimate the actual effect of equipment age on costs. In particular, it has been noted that increases in costs may have been “hidden” by how Army budgets are structured or mitigated by adaptations in part-ordering practices that are not reflected in spending and budgets. This study examines the relationship between equipment age and spare part costs for M1 Abrams tanks through the use of part requisition data. The authors also examine the issue of adaptive practices by comparing actual part expenditures to an exchange price-based valuation of part demands. This work is closely related to a companion study on the effects of equipment age on mission critical failures, a key component of equipment readiness.

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High-Altitude Airships for the Future Force Army - 2005

Lewis Jamison, Geoffrey Sommer, Isaac R. Porche, III

Across the services, there is an increasing demand for overhead communications capacity. New, lighter-than-air (LTA) vehicles that operate at very high altitudes have an obvious attraction for planners of surveillance and communication missions; the ability to see to a more distant horizon results in greatly expanded surveillance volumes. This report informs the U.S. Army about the usefulness and limitations of high-altitude airships (HAA) in the role of platforms for communications and surveillance suites in theater battlespace. Potential alternatives are solar-powered HAA and airplanes flying at 65,000 feet or above that can remain geostationary for months. Potentially, HAA may provide communications satellite capabilities for the WIN-T network that are less expensive than satellites and may support a Global Hawk-like surveillance package in the Multi-Sensor Command and Control Constellation (MC2C). HAA performance issues include engine power, envelope strength, and permeability, solar-cell power, fuel-cell capacity, weather, launch and recovery, and air defense survivability.

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How Should the Army Use Contractors on the Battlefield? - 2005

F. Camm, V. Greenfield

Can the Army improve the way it measures the risks of using civilian contractors in combat? This report proposes a method for comparing the “residual risks” of using military and contract sources to perform specific support activities on the battlefield. It applies the Army’s standard approach to risk assessment, which identifies sources of risk, or “threat”; the risks the threats present; the opportunities to mitigate these risks; and the risk that remains-the residual risk-when the Army chooses a particular course of action to mitigate risks. The approach considers choices of military and contract sources, with appropriate mitigation strategies, as alternative courses of action and compares the residual risks associated with each choice. The approach offers an orderly way to translate relative inherent capabilities of military and contract sources, terms of applicable status-of-forces agreements, and threats at any particular place and time on the battlefield into a comparison of the residual risks associated with military outcomes, the safety of contract personnel, resource costs, and other policy factors of greatest importance outside a particular contingency setting.

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Implementation of the Asthma Practice Guideline in the Army Medical Department: Evaluation of Process and Effects - 2005

Donna O. Farley, Shan Cretin, Georges Vernez, Suzanne Pieklik, Elaine Quiter, J. Scott Ashwood, Wenli Tu

In partnership with the Army Medical Department (AMEDD), RAND researchers worked to implement clinical practice guidelines in treatment of three common ailments (asthma, diabetes, and low back pain). This report is an evaluation of the asthma practice guideline demonstration. It documents the extent to which intended actions were implemented, assesses short-term effects on clinical practices, and measures the quality and limitations of available data for monitoring practice improvements and clinical outcomes. The authors found that, although the implementation scored some notable successes, resource limitations and organizational barriers curbed overall progress. They conclude that allowing for flexibility, monitoring the facilities consistently, and training providers thoroughly are the keys to implementing the practice guidelines throughout AMEDD. The also concluded that patient education was an area in need of improvement.

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Implementation of the Diabetes Practice Guideline in the Army Medical Department: Final Evaluation - 2005

Donna O. Farley, Georges Vernez, Kathryn J. Dolter, Suzanne Pieklik, Wenli Tu, J. Scott Ashwood, Shan Cretin

In partnership with the Army Medical Department (AMEDD), RAND researchers have been working to implement clinical practice guidelines in treatment of three common ailments (diabetes, asthma, and low back pain). This report is an evaluation of the diabetes practice guideline demonstration. It documents the extent to which intended actions were implemented, assesses short-term effects on clinical practices, and measures the quality and limitations of available data for monitoring practice improvements and clinical outcomes. The authors found that, although the implementation scored some notable successes, resource limitations and organizational barriers curbed overall progress. They conclude that allowing for flexibility, providing adequate resources, and learning from experience are the keys to implementing practice guidelines throughout AMEDD.

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Improving the Army's Management of Reparable Spare Parts - 2005

J. Folkeson, M. Brauner

An integrative approach to improving the responsiveness, reliability, and efficiency of the Army’s inventory-management and component-repair processes. Three key issues are identified: (1) impact of uncertainty and variability in customer demands on long-term planning; (2) need for near-term replanning for execution; and (3) inability of repair responsiveness to meet changing requirements. Alternatives for improving both planning and repair activities are presented, and it is suggested that a pilot effort be undertaken to develop and test alternative approaches.

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Increasing Participation in Army Continuing Education: eArmyU and Effects of Possible Program Changes - 2005

B. Orvis, L. McDonald, B. Raymond, F. Wu

The eArmyU continuing education program allows enlisted soldiers to earn college credits while on active duty. This study sought to determine how to make eArmyU available to more individuals while controlling program costs. Historically, the program”s primary cost had been attributed to the laptop computer it provides. This study examined how the existing eArmyU program, as well as how removing the laptop or other provisions, affect various soldier outcomes.

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Medical Risk in the Future Force Unit of Action: Results of the Army Medical Department Transformation Workshop IV - 2005

David E. Johnson, Gary Cecchine

This report describes the Army Medical Department (AMEDD) Transformation Workshop (ATW) IV, conducted at the RAND Corporation Washington Office in February 2004, and it includes an analysis and discussion of the workshop results. This workshop continued the assessment, begun in ATWs I-III, of the medical risks associated with emerging Army operational concepts and the capacity of the AMEDD to mitigate these risks. The principal purpose of ATW IV was to begin the process of providing casualty demand estimates that will need to be addressed by the health service support system at echelons above the Unit of Action (UA). AMEDD subject matter experts supported the workshop and examined the ability of an envisioned UA medical structure to support Future Force combat operations in a 12-hour combat simulation provided by the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command. The results of the workshop will provide information valuable in designing the medical system above the UA level.

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Reexamining Military Acquisition Reform - Are We There Yet? - 2005

C. Hanks, E. Axelband, S. Lindsay, M. Malik, B. Steele

In the Department of Defense, 63 distinct acquisition reform (AR) initiatives were undertaken in the 1989-2002 period. This monograph classifies the initiatives according to various criteria: basic AR theme; relationship to acquisition functions; Army recognition; coverage in the DoD 5000 series; relationship to Under Secretary Aldridge’s five goals; coverage in Defense Acquisition University curricula; and relationship to industry attractiveness and return-on-investment models. The analysis made use of interviews with industry and Army Program Management personnel, who were asked: What has been good about acquisition reform? What has been bad? What would you change? In general, industry and Army Program Management personnel acknowledge that some good has come from some AR initiatives, but they argue that many serious structural and cultural impediments still remain that hinder the ability of the acquisition process to deliver desired outcomes in terms of cost, schedule, and performance.

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Risk Management and Performance in the Balkans Support Contract - 2005

V. Greenfield, F. Camm

Is the Army getting what it needs and managing risks appropriately in its combat service support contracts? This report uses the Army’s Balkans Support Contract and a continuous risk-management framework to answer these questions. On the basis of this case study, the authors conclude that the Army has been getting what it needs, though it might, at times, be bearing too much cost-related risk, and that few risks arise directly from the use of contractors. They also see a need for more training for the Army’s contracting personnel to better plan, coordinate, and manage contracts.

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Steeling the Mind: Combat Stress Reaction and Their Implications for Urban Warfare - 2005

T. Helmus, R. Glenn

Combat stress casualties can severely reduce unit strength, and these types of losses may be accentuated during operations in cities. Commanders and NCOs in the U.S. military should develop the necessary skills to treat and prevent stress casualties and understand their implications for urban operations. Consequently, the authors provide an overview of combat stress reaction (CSR) in the form of a review of its known precipitants, its battlefield treatment, and the preventive steps commanders can take to limit its extent and severity. In addition, to enhance the understanding of the risks that urban operations pose to the development of CSR, the authors interviewed participants in former urban operations and reviewed historical and contemporary documents. Many of those interviewed suggest that urban operations are inordinately stressful and that the risk of CSR may be high. But historical data from the battles of Brest, Manila, and Hue, as well as others, show no evidence of increased rates of stress casualties. The authors also review treatment and prevention steps from the perspective of military operations on urbanized terrain.

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Stretched Thin - Army Forces for Sustained Operations - 2005

L. Davis, J. M. Polich, W. Hix, M. Greenberg, S. Brady, R. Sortor

The United States faces very difficult trade-offs in responding to the demanding calls now being made on Army forces for overseas operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. This report describes the effects of large-scale deployments on the Army’s ability to provide ready forces for other contingencies, to ensure that its soldiers are trained for warfighting and stability operations, and to preserve the quality of life for its soldiers and families. The authors found the Army’s plans for transforming its active and reserve brigades and employing its reserves at reasonable rates help ameliorate the stresses but still leave shortfalls. Steps available to improve the situation all involve significant risks or costs. Unless these overseas requirements recede considerably, the nation is faced with an Army stretched thin, with no quick fix or straightforward solution.

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Success of First-Term Soldiers: The Effects of Recruiting Practices and Recruit Characteristics - 2005

R. Buddin

This monograph examines the relationship between recruiting practices and conditions and the first-term success of Army soldiers. Success in the first term is important to the Army because recruiting soldiers is expensive. If soldiers fail to complete their first terms, the Army must recruit others to replace them, effectively doubling the cost. Given the expense of recruiting, the Army should reassess whether some management strategies could improve the success rates for first-term soldiers. Events in a soldier’s first term that show a statistically significant relation to early loss include length of time in the Delayed Entry Program, gender (women have consistently higher rates of attrition at each stage of the first enlistment), and education (soldiers without high school diplomas drop out at an increased rate beginning with advanced individual training). Attrition can also vary depending on the training installation, but high loss rates during basic training have no effect on subsequent attrition. Thus, it does not appear that applying higher standards in basic training reduces subsequent attrition in the enlistment cohort. All other things being equal, soldiers in combat arms have higher attrition rates than do those in other occupations. Finally, promotion correlates positively with retention. Equally interesting are the influences that do not appear to make a major difference. These include participation in the Army College Fund, term of enlistment, the recruiting environment, and characteristics of recruiters. Recommendations include shorter time in the Delayed Entry Program for high school seniors, a revisiting of the fitness training unit concept, and imposition of consistent training standards and policies. The monograph also recommends exploring policies to help at-risk demographic groups such as women and recruits who hold GEDs, as well as a review of the promotion program to ensure that the most able soldiers are getting promoted.

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Sustainment of Army Forces in Operation Iraqi Freedom: Major Findings and Recommendations - 2005

E. Peltz, M. Robbins, K. Girardini, R. Eden, J. Halliday, J. Angers

By virtually every account, the major combat operations of Operation Iraqi Freedom that toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime in the spring of 2003 were a remarkable success. Yet there is a general belief within the Army and the broader defense community, supported by RAND Arroyo Center’s analysis, that this success was achieved despite logistics problems that hampered materiel sustainment. However, moving beyond the initial impressions that emerged quickly following operations, Arroyo’s research has indicated that forces and sustainment capabilities were sufficiently robust to overcome the problems and effectively execute missions. This monograph describes how well the Department of Defense logistics system supported Army forces in Operation Iraqi Freedom, documents the major reasons for shortfalls in performance, provides recommendations for improvement, and points to questions raised with respect to the design of future forces.

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Sustainment of Army Forces in Operation Iraqi Freedom: Battlefield Logistics and Effects on Operations - 2005

Eric Peltz, John Halliday, Marc Robbins, Kenneth J. Girardini

The major combat operations of Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) have been judged from virtually all quarters as a remarkable success, although accompanied by some perceptions that this success was achieved in the face of severe logistics problems. This monograph describes how Army forces were sustained during Operation Iraqi Freedom, examines how well this support performed, and discusses the effects on operations with an emphasis on the period from the start of ground combat to the fall of Baghdad. The findings should be of interest throughout the Army as well as the broader Department of Defense supply chain, deployment planning, and force development communities. The findings have implications for the design of the logistics system, logistics process improvement efforts, future force design and warfighting concepts, and the acquisition of end items such as vehicles as well as logistics enablers such as those that provide logistics situational awareness.

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Transformation and The Army School System - 2005

M. Shanley, J. Crowley, M. Lewis, R. Masi, S. Straus, K. Leuschner, S. Hartman, S. Stockley

Army Transformation and wider operational demands are placing increased demands on Army training and The Army School System (TASS), which is responsible for the vast majority of institutional training in both the Active Component (AC) and Reserve Component (RC). This report identifies policies and options for increasing TASS’s contribution to Army readiness while improving the integration of the AC and RC training systems. The study recommends, first, that TASS adopt private sector practices, organizational models, and technologies to improve its approach for developing interactive media instruction (IMI) training (a key form of future training). The study also recommends that TASS expand its training delivery options by developing a more effective local training system to conduct selected courses and support other unit training needs. Finally, TASS should seek to leverage available training resources to improve integration of AC-RC training institutions and provide additional training options. Suggestions are presented for three potential pilot studies-low-cost demonstration projects-that would help assess the costs and tradeoffs involved in the overall change strategy.

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Unexploded Ordnance Cleanup Costs: Implications of Alternative Protocols - 2005

Jacqueline MacDonald, Carmen Mendez

With continued military downsizing and base closures, cleanup of unexploded ordnance (UXO) at former weapons ranges has become one of the most costly environmental problems the military faces. This study examines cost estimation for UXO remediation conducted at closed military installations, the difficulties of accurately estimating cleanup costs, and the major effects that different cleanup requirements and methods can have on cost. It assesses previous estimates of UXO cleanup costs and evaluates the strengths and limitations of the military’s preferred cost-estimation tool, the remedial Action Cost Engineering Requirements (RACER) software package. Using a modified method of implementing RACER, the study shows how costs change depending on which cleanup protocol is followed. The results show that the choice of cleanup protocol has major cost implications.

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Urban Battle Command in the 21st Century - 2005

R. Glenn, G. Kingston

Urban areas are notorious for complicating operational planning, command, control, and the communications that facilitate the three. Frequent interruptions of line of sight due to the prolificacy of man-made structures interfere with radio and global positioning system signals. They often combine with extreme noise, dust, smoke, and light conditions to impede leader control at all echelons. The density of noncombatants and their potentially crucial influence on friendly force success further demand effective employment and synchronization of psychological operations, civil affairs, public affairs, and other resources. Savvy use of existent systems, employing decentralized control procedures, and innovation all have their place in overcoming these inherent limitations in the service of achieving objectives across the spectrum of conflict.

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Army Forces for Homeland Security - 2004

Lynn Davis, David E. Mosher, Richard Brennan, Michael Greenberg, Scott McMahon and Charles Yost

Although responding to terrorist attacks and other domestic emergencies is primarily a civilian responsibility, the U.S. Army has a role in filling gaps in civilian capability. Should the Army adopt a hedging strategy to meet the risks of future terrorist attacks and other emergencies? The authors of this report lay out five possible shortfalls in Army capability and suggest five responses the Army can begin today, concluding that the nation needs to decide whether to bear the costs today in order to hedge against future risks.

Full Document Research Brief

Assuring Access in Key Strategic Regions: Toward a Long-Term Strategy - 2004

Eric V. Larson, Derek Eaton, Paul Elrick, Theodore W. Karasik, Robert Klein, Sherrill Lingel, Brian Nichiporuk, Robert Uy and John Zavadil

The authors developed scenarios and conducted political-military games to determine what strategies, tactics, and capabilities potential adversaries might use to complicate U.S. access to key areas and how effective the U.S. counters to these tactics are. They were sanguine about the ability of the U.S. to prevail in the short-term but also identified several concerns and suggested areas of improvement, including expanding the number of in-theater bases that might be available; enhancing the flexibility and deployability of U.S. forces to more austere bases; and upgrading detection, warning, and force protection measures.

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Conserving the Future Force Fighting Strength, Findings from the Army Medical Department Transformation Workshop 2002 - 2004

D. Johnson, G. Cecchine

As the Army transforms itself for the future and develops new operational concepts and technologies, the Army Medical Department (AMEDD) is identifying operational medicine issues whose resolution will be critical to its ability to support the Army of the future. The purpose of this research was to develop a method to assess these issues and further investigate a subset of them.

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Dollar Cost Banding: A New Algorithm for Computing Inventory Levels for Army Supply Support Activities - 2004

Kenneth J. Girardini, Arthur Lackey, Kristin Leuschner, Daniel A. Relles, Mark Totten and Darlene J. Blake

When Army equipment fails, its timely repair depends critically on the availability of needed spare parts. This monograph describes the development and implementation of dollar cost banding (DCB), a new algorithm for computing spare parts inventories maintained by Army supply support activities (SSAs). DCB has been used to expand the breadth of deployable inventories, producing immediate and significant gains in performance at little or no additional inventory cost and without sacrificing mobility.

Full Document Research Brief

The Effects of Equipment Age On Mission Critical Failure Rates: A Study of M1 Tanks - 2004

Eric Peltz, Lisa Colabella, Brian Williams, Patricia M. Boren

Budget limits have brought about extensions in the service lives of many Army weapon systems. In the widespread belief that the increases in fleet age will create readiness and cost problems, the Army is executing recapitalization programs to rebuild or upgrade selected weapon systems to retain combat capabilities and hold down maintenance costs. This research assesses the effects of age on mission-critical failure rates for M1 Abrams tanks.

Full Document Research Brief

Evaluation of the Low Back Pain Practice Guideline Implementation in the Army Medical Department - 2004

Donna O. Farley, Georges Vernez, Will Nicholas, Elaine S. Quiter, George J. Dydek, Suzanne Pieklik, Shan Cretin

This first demonstration to field test methods for implementation of clinical practice guidelines (regarding low back pain) yielded rich insights. The performance of the demonstration and control Army health facilities on the six chosen indicators for acute low back pain care varied significantly at baseline (the six month period before the facilities started working with the guideline). Introducing the guideline had few measurable effects on those measures. However, the demonstration made a considerable contribution to improvements in methods for subsequent guideline demonstrations, and ultimately, for implementation of the low back pain guideline in all Army health facilities as of January 2000.

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Examining the Army's Future Warrior: Force-on-Force Simulation of Candidate Technologies - 2004

Randall Steeb, John Matsumura, Paul Steinberg, Thomas J. Herbert, Phyllis Kantar and Patrick Bogue

This monograph summarizes a quick-response analysis done for the 2001 Army Science Board Summer Study on Objective Force Soldier. It assessed technology options for future dismounted soldiers that could improve mission effectiveness and reduce casualties. The central findings were that soldier effectiveness and survivability could be moderately improved by individual systems (such as the XM-29, body armor, and links to indirect fire), but significant improvements resulted only from applications of combined systems.

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Future Army Bandwidth Needs and Capabilities - 2004

L. Joe, I. Porche III

As the Army migrates to a new force structure that is knowledge-based and network-centric, the issue of bandwidth, which facilitates communications capacity, has become increasingly critical. Increases in the number of network participants create shortages of bandwidth supply. The authors examine the Army's projected demands for communications capacity and describe steps that can be taken to address the likely gap between demand and available supply.

Full Document Research Brief

Transferring Army BRAC Lands Containing Unexploded Ordnance: Lessons Learned and Future Options - 2004

Jacqueline MacDonald, Debra Knopman, Noreen Clancy, Jimmie McEver and Henry H. Willis

In the ongoing Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) process, lands containing unexploded ordnance (UXO) left over from military training have proved particularly difficult and costly to transfer to new users. With a few exceptions, little progress has been made in transferring these lands. This monograph chronicles both the issues that facilitated the transfer of UXO-contaminated lands and those that slowed the transfer, and it offers options for expediting the transfer of these lands.

Full Document Research Brief

Unexploded Ordnance: A Critical Review of Risk Assessment Methods - 2004

Jacqueline MacDonald, Debra Knopman, J.R. Lockwood, Gary Cecchine, Henry Willis

This report examines methods for assessing the risks of unexploded ordnance (UXO) on former military training land, particularly sites on closed or transferred bases that will be or have been converted to civilian use. This work is the first to analyze in detail all the approaches the Army has developed to assess the risks of UXO sites, recommending ways for the Army to develop risk assessment protocols acceptable to all parties with an interest in UXO sites.

Full Document Research Brief

Urban Battle Fields of South Asia: Lessons Learned from Sri Lanka, India, and Pakistan - 2004

C. Christine Fair

Military operations in urban areas are among the most complex challenges confronting the U.S. Army. Compared to a number of other nations, the Army has relatively less experience operating in this environment. To that end, this monograph analyzes sustained campaigns of urban terrorism in Sri Lanka, India, and Pakistan, identifying key innovations of the militant organizations. It also details the three states’ responses to the threats, noting successful as well as unsuccessful efforts.

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U.S. Army Security Cooperation: Toward Improved Planning and Management - 2004

T. Szayna, A. Grissom, J. Marquis, T. Young, B. Rosen, Y. Huh

In the realm of security cooperation--peacetime activities undertaken by the U.S. armed services with other armed forces and countries--the U.S. Army's current planning process is exceedingly complex and difficult to coordinate, control, and measure. This monograph seeks to help the U.S. Army improve its ability to assess future demand for resources devoted to security cooperation and to evaluate the impact of these demands upon the resources available to the Army.

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Value Recovery from the Reverse Logistics Pipeline - 2004

David Diener, Eric Peltz, Arthur Lackey, Darlene J. Blake and Karthik Vaidyanathan

Value recovery, in the form of the return and repair of reparable spare parts, involves sizable investments of time and inventory. This monograph describes metrics developed to evaluate the Army’s retrograde processes. Baseline repair times were found to be long: over a month for items repaired below depot and returned to stock. The authors suggest ways to speed up the movement of parts through the system to minimize the size of the parts inventory.

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Equipment Sustainment Requirements for the Transforming Army - 2003

E. Peltz

The Army must improve the sustainability driven by reliability, maintainability, fleet life cycle management effectiveness, and supply support effectiveness of its future systems. To do this, the Army needs to identify a set of equipment sustainment requirements for its weapon system programs aligned with future operating concepts. RAND Arroyo Center has developed a set of recommended metrics for defining equipment requirements and has assessed their merit as key performance parameters.

Full DocumentResearch Brief

Rethinking Governance of the Army's Arsenals and Ammunition Plants - 2003

M. Hix, E. Pint, J. Bondanella, B. Held, M. Hynes, D. Johnson, A. Pregler, M. Stollenwerk, J. Sollinger

With its large industrial base of ammunition plants and arsenals, the Army has more ordnance manufacturing capacity than it needs. This study proposes a strategic vision for this capacity and explores four options for managing it: privatization, creation of a federal government corporation, consolidation, and recapitalization on multifunction posts. It weighs the options from different perspectives, including feasibility, economic viability, and risk posed to national interests.

Full Document Research Brief NSRD Research Brief RAND National Security Research Division

Speed and Power: Toward an Expeditionary Army - 2003

Eric Peltz, John M. Halliday, Aimee Bower

Using a case study based on the Armyís new Stryker Brigade Combat Team, the authors explore how the Army might improve its ability to contribute to prompt, global power projection, that is, strategically responsive early-entry forces for time-critical events. The authors examine options to reach a dual goal: to initiate deployment of the right force capabilities, and then get those capabilities where they need to be as quickly as possible.

Full Document Research Brief

The U.S. Army and the New National Security Strategy- 2003

Lynn E. Davis and Jeremy Shapiro, Editors

This book examines the Army's role in the war on terrorism; the Army's homeland security needs; the implications of increased emphasis on Asia; the Army's role in coalition operations; the unfinished business of jointness-the lessons learned from operations and how to prepare for the future; the Army's deployability, logistical, and personnel challenges; and whether the Army can afford its Transformation.

Full Document Research Brief

Vertical Envelopment and the Future Transport Rotorcraft: Operational Considerations for the Objective Force - 2003

J. Grossman, D. Rubenson, W. Sollfrey, B. Steele

The Future Transport Rotorcraft (FTR) is a proposed heavy-lift helicopter capable of transporting the Army's Future Combat System (FCS) family of combat vehicles. The authors review RAND Arroyo Center's analysis of the engineering, operational, and survivability risks and uncertainties associated with the FTR.

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Disjointed War: Military Operations in Kosovo - 2002

B. Nardulli, W. Perry, B. Pirnie, J. Gordon, J. McGinn

The 1999 military operation against the Yugoslav Army in Kosovo suggests several areas in which Joint military operations were deficient. This study examined all aspects of the Kosovo conflict, including its political and historical underpinnings, in an attempt to understand these deficiencies and to recommend improvements. This document is based on extensive original source documents and interviews with most of the principal participants, and serves as the definitive Army record on Kosovo. While the primary focus of the research was on U.S. Army involvement, it covered many other aspects of Operation Allied Force. Topics include NATO objectives in Operation Allied Force, air and ground planning, evolution of the air operation and its effects on fielded Yugoslav forces, Task Force Hawk, and peace operations.

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Exploring Rapid-Reaction Capabilities for an SSC: Analytic Support to the 2000 Army Science Board Summary Study - 2002

J. Matsumura, R. Steeb, T. Herbert, J. Gordon, C. Rhodes, R. Glenn, M. Barbero, F. Gellert, P. Kantar, G. Halverson, R. Cochran

In the context of the Army Science Boardís (ASB) fundamental purpose of and evaluating advanced technologies within new operational concepts for the future vision of the Army, this research focused on a small-scale contingency and the associated spectrum of challenges this type of scenario might entail. In conducting the study, the research team interacted with various members of the ASB and, in particular, with key members of the Operations panel, drawing extensively on their forward-looking ideas and ultimately integrating many of these ideas into the research. High-resolution combat modeling and simulation was used to assess the many key aspects of force performance, environmental effects, and system-of-system effects.

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Keeping the Warfighting Edge: An Empirical Analysis of Army Officers' Tactical Expertise - 2002

M. Leed

This report explores whether between 1990 and 1998 the tenure of key developmental assignments for infantry and armor officers became shorter; the tactical training during those assignments declined significantly; and earlier shifts in career patterns and training meant that such recent officers arrived in key positions with less experience than earlier generations of officers. The analysis finds that while some assignments did become shorter, especially for platoon leaders, on average the length of most key jobs was about the same across the time period. However, in terms of content, assignments involved less field training (much less for armor officers). Finally, there did not appear to be substantial changes in the overall career patterns of officers, except for lieutenants, who showed a rising propensity to serve on staffs at the expense of time as platoon leaders. These findings suggest that the tactical foundation of recent infantry and armor officers is weaker than it had been previously, most seriously at the junior levels. Establishing a mechanism to monitor the content of unit assignments is the most important action the Army can take to improve its officers' tactical development.

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Protecting the Homeland: Insights from Army Wargames - 2002

R. Brennan

In February 1996, the Chief of Staff of the Army directed the U.S. Training and Docrine Command (TRADOC) to conduct studies of future warfare. As part of these studies, TRADOC sponsors workshops and encourages franchise games in areas of interest. This document reports on RAND analysis of homeland security. The insights and issues raised in this study address new and emerging threats and vulnerabilities of the United States to militarily significant attacks within the continental United States during times of conflict. The work broadly fits into the larger body of research relating to asymmetric warfare and/or counterterrorism.

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Right Price, Fair Credit: Criteria to Improve Financial Incentives for Army Logistics Decisions - 2002

E. M. Pint, M. K. Brauner, J. R. Bondanella, D. A. Relles, P. Steinberg

Under the Army's financial management system for spare parts, logistics customers receive budgets to buy spare parts from the supply system and receive credits for returning parts to the supply system, either for repair or because they are no longer needed in local inventories. The Army's wholesale inventories of spare parts are financed by a "stock fund," which uses its income from the sale of parts, net of credits issued to customers, to pay for repairs and procurement of replacement parts. Some installation-level, or retail, inventories are also financed by stock funds. During fiscal year 2001, the Army's stock funds were in a period of transition from separate wholesale and retail components to a Single Stock Fund (SSF). As part of this change, the Army implemented new price and credit policies for spare parts. The authors introduce a set of criteria to assess price and credit policy changes in terms of their effectiveness in meeting the overall objective of maintaining the logistics customer's ability to meet mission requirements while keeping weapon systems in operating condition at the lowest total cost to the Army. They then use these criteria to compare and evaluate pre-SSF, SSF, and proposed future price and credit policies, and define the characteristics of an optimal Army price and credit policy.

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Seeking Nontraditional Approaches to Collaborating and Partnering with Industry - 2002

B. Held, K. Horn, C. Hanks, M. Hynes, P. Steinberg, C. Pernin, J. Medby, J. Brown

This report describes nontraditional approaches for the Army to collaborate and partner with industry using public-private partnership (PPP), venture capital fund, and federal government corporation (FGC) concepts. The research shows that while the three concepts appear promising, each requires resolution of key issues before it can be seriously considered for implementation. In the case of the PPP, issues include whether financially sound concepts can be proposed by the installations. In the case of venture capital, the potential merits of such a concept to meet the Army's technology needs must be addressed in further detail. In the case of FGCs, the value of establishing the Army laboratories and depots as FGCs will depend on how much external commercial opportunities exist and further analysis on how to best structure continuing relationships with other Army organizations. Once these key issues are satisfactorily addressed, the Army should create pilot programs to test the concepts.

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Army Biometric Applications: Identifying and Addressing Sociocultural Concerns - 2001

J. D. Woodward, Jr., K. W. Webb, E. M. Newton, M. Bradley, D. Rubenson

Every human possesses more than one virtually infallible form of identification. Known as "biometrics," examples include fingerprints, iris and retinal scans, hand geometry, and other measures of physical characteristics and personal traits. Advances in computers and related technologies have made this a highly automated process through which recognition occurs almost instantaneously. With concern about its information assurance systems and physical access control increased, the Army has undertaken an assessment of how it can use biometrics to improve security, efficiency, and convenience. This report examines the sociocultural concerns that arise among soldiers, civilian employees, and the general public when the military mandates widespread use of biometics. The authors see no significant legal obstacles to Army use of biometrics, but recommend that the Army go beyond the provision of the Privacy Act of 1974 to allay concerns related to this emerging technology. This report should be of interest to those responsible for access control as well as anyone concerned about privacy and technology issues.

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Army Distance Learning and Personnel Readiness - 2001

J. D. Winkler, H. A. Leonard, M. G. Shanley

What personnel readiness benefits can accrue from the Armyís use of distance learning (DL) technologies? Because DL can make the delivery of training faster, more convenient, and more effective, these technologies can improve the efficiency of strategies designed to alleviate shortages of enlisted personnel in key military occupational specialties. Use of DL in education programs will also enhance personnel stability and reduce the need for officers and noncommissioned officers to make frequent moves to complete their required training. This research concludes that DLís benefits can best be realized if the Army modifies its DL program objectives to make personnel readiness a primary goal, and it recommends changes to the Armyís investment plans to support this endeavor.

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Army Distance Learning: Potential for Reducing Shortages in Army Enlisted Occupations - 2001

M. Shanley, J. Winkler, H. Leonard

This report examines ways in which distance learning can help the Army more quickly alleviate active component manpower shortages in under-strength military occupations. The analysis finds that distance learning can enable faster completion of reclassification training, faster completion of professional development courses, and more efficient forms of skill training, depending on the nature of the course materials selected for instruction via distance learning. The analysis addresses the costs and benefits of these potential changes as well as potential implementation problems that could raise costs or reduce benefits.

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Army Medical Support to the Army After Next: Issues and Insights from the Medical Technology Workshop - 2001

G. Cecchine, D. Johnson, W. Perry, R. Anthony, B. Golomb, A. Hearn, L. Hilborne, J. Sollinger

To ensure that medical capabilities, programs, and systems were integrated with the Army After Next (AAN) program and the future Army, the U.S. Army Medical Department (AMEDD) participated in the FY99 series of AAN games, conferences, and workshops, serving as players and franchise sponsors of events focused on AMEDD issues and goals. Results from previous AMEDD wargames and participation in the AAN Spring Wargame 1999, along with the current Science and Technology investment strategy, provided the framework for the Army Medical Technology Workshop (MTW-99). The principal basis for the technology requirements considered in the workshop were current and future systems. The workshop focused primarily on identifying those portions of the Army's Medical Science and Technology Investment Strategy-principally Basic Research (6.1) and Applied Research (6.2) investment areas-that would be essential in assuring that the Army has the required medical capabilities in the AAN timeframe. Identification of these capabilities, described as systems, provided the impetus for the development of a revised investment strategy to promote support for the enabling and cross-cutting medical technologies that will be needed in the 2025 timeframe. The authors describe the MTW-99 workshop design, summarize the major findings of the various panels, identify the salient issues and insights that emerged during the workshop, and make recommendations to improve future workshops.

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Deployments and Army Personnel Tempo - 2001

R. E. Sortor, M. Polich

Over the past decade, numerous observers have expressed concerns about ìincreased tempoî and overseas deployments. This report derives quantitative measures of unit and individual deployments in the period 1994 through 2000 and uses them to create an empirically grounded description of tempo and its possible effects. Results show that, over time, Army deployment levels have increased appreciably. For example, the average time deployed rose nearly 30 percent between 1997 and 2000, and the number of units with lengthy periods away from home was also up sharply. In 2000, the average soldier in a TO&E unit spent about 7 days away from home on deployments each month, or 85 days per year. The impact was much more pronounced among some units, branches, and individuals, particularly those deployed to the Balkans. However, fewer than 4 percent of the force was subject to repeat overseas deployments during a three-year period, and fewer than 1 percent were deployed more than one-third of the time. The authors conclude that these static measures of tempo and deployment do not by themselves explain a widespread ìtempoî problem, but that a problem results from two other sources. One is the workload generated by the combination of warfighting readiness, deployments, and day-to-day peacetime demands of operating a unit and installation. The second arises from the dynamics of the system that must sustain the force, prepare for deployments, and adhere to peaceti