The RAND Blog

This commentary appeared in The International Economy on December 1, 2012.

The Cold War was, in large part, about weapons of mass destruction. Today's hand-wringing over the villainies certain to visit us in cyberspace is primarily about weapons of mass distraction.

Despite nearly twenty years of predictions, the total physical damage from cyberattacks so far has been low compared even to the smallest of real wars. No one has died. Very little machinery has been broken. One exception, Stuxnet, was a concentrated effort by first-rate cyber powers focused on a nuclear enrichment facility managed by a third-rate industrial power (Iran) with scant mastery of the process, a jerry-rigged collection of blackand gray-market parts, and very little help from the outside world. Extrapolating such limited success (80 percent of the centrifuges survived the attack) into a Cold War II is more than a bit of a stretch. What appear to have been revenge attacks against U.S. banks in September deprived bank customers of online access—an annoyance, to be sure—but the perpetrators have not managed to penetrate banking systems or challenge the integrity of the financial system. This kind of war we can survive easily.

The historic Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PDF), usually referred to as the ACA, or "Obamacare," focuses primarily on extending coverage to uninsured Americans. But it is also intended to help curb cost growth. One of the key tools for doing that is the "accountable care organization," or ACO—an alternative delivery model intended to lower costs while also improving quality of care.

It's perhaps not obvious how organizations (rather than individuals) become "accountable" for care. For clarification, RAND turned to M. Susan Ridgely, JD, a senior health policy analyst at RAND and an expert on health policy reform and payment models.

A new study about the Colorado River Basin—nearly three years in the making—provides the most comprehensive look to date at how growing water needs combined with uncertain but possibly deteriorating future hydrologic conditions could stress the system in the coming 50 years.

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation released the study last week. It was funded and managed through a partnership between the seven Western States that use the Colorado River water and the bureau. RAND researchers joined the study team, composed of bureau staff and consultants from CH2M Hill and Black & Veatch, to help develop and implement a framework for analyzing the potential supply and demand gap in the basin and evaluate options for alleviating it.

While we may think that it makes intuitive sense to encourage at-risk youth to seek employment, our findings in recent work funded by the National Institute on Drug Abuse suggest that the opposite could be true.

Employment can build character for many teens, especially as they balance work and school, learn how to manage their paychecks, and are accountable to their employers and coworkers. However, not all teens reap these benefits—and in fact, for some teens, employment can lead to unwanted habits and behaviors.

As the holiday season approaches, millions of Americans will embark on flights to visit far-away relatives or seek a respite from cold weather. Regardless of their destination, each and every traveler will pass through security at airports and trust that this security is keeping them safe.

As a New York Times editorial noted last week, the costs and benefits of Department of Homeland Security efforts to improve security warrant a closer look. Much attention has understandably focused on preventing terrorist attacks. Far less has been paid to the extent Americans have been asked to cede privacy and freedom across a variety of mundane activities—everything from mobile phone activity to travel habits.

Five states are experimenting with adding a substantial amount of time—300 hours, or the equivalent of an additional 45 school days—to the school year in some schools. The goal is to improve academic achievement and give students more time for non-core subjects such as visual arts, music, technology, and physical education.

This policy initiative holds promise. We have compelling evidence that extending academic learning time, especially for lower-performing students, can improve student achievement. We also know that the long break from school during the summer months leads to summer learning loss, particularly for low-income students. Research evidence tells us that expanding time during the day and over the academic year, particularly in high-poverty and low-performing schools, can improve student achievement.

This commentary appeared on Foreign Policy on December 13, 2012.

Western press accounts jumped on suggestions today that Russia may be backing away from the beleaguered regime of Bashar al-Assad. According to reported remarks of Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, Russia's point-person for Middle East diplomacy, "As far as the victory of the opposition is concerned, it cannot be ruled out, and, to our regret, one should face the facts. The tendency is right in that direction, the regime and the authorities are increasingly losing control over an increasing territory."

Poor Bogdanov.

With two of every three Americans now overweight or obese (PDF), the national health crisis spans all populations. However, one of the groups hit hardest by this trend is residents of low-income, urban neighborhoods.

Many of these areas have been characterized as "food deserts" due to their lack of fresh, healthy foods. Policymakers have attempted to improve access to healthy dietary choices in these neighborhoods by leveraging hundreds of millions of public and private dollars to encourage the placement of full-service grocery stores.

This commentary appeared on GlobalSecurity.org on December 12, 2012.

The terrorist plot uncovered recently by Jordanian authorities raises concerns about the resurgence of al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), the growing numbers of combat-experienced jihadists being generated by Syria's continuing civil war, and the future terrorist threat to the region. The plot itself envisioned a complex operation beginning with bombings at shopping malls in Amman, followed by armed assaults on Amman's luxury hotels. After these assaults, a third wave of terrorists was to attack the American embassy and its surrounding neighborhood with bombs, machine guns, and mortar fire. The attack would have rivaled the November 2008 terrorist assault on Mumbai in which 162 people died.

The conspirators were members of an extreme Salafist group in Jordan. They had gone to fight in Syria, where they planned to obtain their explosives and weapons. Material recovered at their arrest also revealed connections to terrorists in Iraq.

This commentary appeared on GlobalSecurity.org on December 12, 2012.

If there ever was a honeymoon in Egypt's post-Mubarak politics, it is long over. The two main ideological camps—Islamists and secular-liberals—have shown a willingness to cooperate only when brought together by a common foe.

In the heady days of January and February 2011, it was the shared goal of toppling the Mubarak regime that enabled the two sides to work together. When Ahmed Shafiq, the last Prime Minister under Mubarak, emerged as a run-off candidate in the presidential election, it was the threat of a return by fuloul al-nizham, (the remnants of the regime) that brought the two sides together. And when the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, the military caretaker that directed the first year and a half of the transition, showed signs of resisting civilian control, it was the dark cloud of military rule that allowed the two sides put aside their differences.