The RAND Blog

Reports this week suggest the Obama administration is considering reducing the number of U.S. military forces in Afghanistan to around 10,000 by 2014. Unfortunately, this discussion is happening in something of a vacuum. As the U.S. withdraws its forces, military and civilian officials have yet to clearly outline strategic objectives for the region and discuss the tasks required to achieve those objectives.

Indeed, the number of U.S. forces in Afghanistan is only one of several important policy choices—and not necessarily the most important one. For example: What will the U.S. do about the insurgent sanctuary in Pakistan? In a country where tribes, sub-tribes, and clans still retain substantial power in rural areas, how much will the U.S. strategy depend on Afghan central government action?

Efforts to come to grips with intellectual property rights aren't dying down after the European Parliament voted down the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA) last summer. Indeed, the need for evidence of the scale and impact of counterfeiting has only become more pressing.

A new RAND report points to a potential solution and has already been dubbed "tech's Holy Grail" by a Fortune.com contributor. It was commissioned by the European Commission, which—before throwing millions of euros at enforcing intellectual property rights—wants to understand the real economic losses to European businesses and whether they are increasing or not.

This video was recorded at RAND's Politics Aside event on November 16, 2012.

A panel of Hollywood heavyweights at RAND Corporation's Politics Aside conference in Santa Monica, Calif., discusses the international influence of American entertainment programming and delves into how popular films can shape the public perception of historic events. Sony CEO Michael Lynton joins actor Michael Sheen, "Homeland" producer Howard Gordon and Showtime Entertainment President David Nevins.

This video was recorded at RAND's Politics Aside event on November 16, 2012.

Economist Stephen Roach worries that the Federal Reserve's approach to stimulating the economy will lead to a bubble. Roach also discussed whether the government will resolve the fiscal cliff with former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair and other panelists at RAND Corporation's Politics Aside conference in Santa Monica, Calif.

This video was recorded at RAND's Politics Aside event on November 16, 2012.

Former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair, former Deputy Secretary of Homeland Security Admiral James Loy, economist Stephen Roach and others talk with Reuters Editor-in-Chief Stephen Adler on a panel called Assessing Risk: Where Will it Come From? at RAND Corporation's Politics Aside conference in Santa Monica, Calif.

As the East Coast continues to rebuild a month after the devastation of Hurricane Sandy, it's important to bear in mind that this latest confluence of storms is merely one in a potential string of disasters that the region and the nation may confront due to changes in climate and other threats. As New York's Governor, Andrew Cuomo, recently wrote, "Extreme weather is the new normal."

This new normal calls for new strategies and approaches to helping individuals and communities rebuild after disasters. Fortunately, history holds lessons that can help us adapt and adjust to our new future.

Recent global disasters, from hurricanes, to tsunamis, to powerful earthquakes, vividly illustrate that recovery from disasters entails more than simply restoring physical infrastructure such as roads and buildings; it is also a long process of restoring the social infrastructure—the daily routines and networks that support the physical and mental health and well-being of the population.

This video was recorded at RAND's Politics Aside event on November 15, 2012.

Admiral Dennis Blair, former National Intelligence director, discusses how the government gathers and uses intelligence on issues including Iran, cyber warfare, and the Arab Spring. Blair spoke with Reuters Editor-at-Large Sir Harold Evans during the RAND Corporation's Politics Aside event on Thursday, November 15.

As the crisis along the border between Syria and Turkey intensifies, Turkey appears on the brink of a formal request to the North Atlantic Council that NATO deploy Patriot missiles to help defend the border. Such a demand falls short of requesting a NATO intervention or even a full-fledged allied defense of Turkish territory, but if the alliance agrees to provide the missile system, it will move NATO a step in that direction.

Turkey has a 550-mile border with Syria. As a result, it is the NATO ally most seriously threatened by the ongoing crisis. The latest border tensions date back to June, when Syrian air defense systems shot down a Turkish military aircraft. In October, mortar fire from within Syria landed in Turkey, killing five civilians and injuring several more. Last week, the Syrian government deployed MIG-25fighter aircraft against civilians in Ras al-Ain, a town along the Turkish border that had recently fallen into rebel hands.

The latest clash between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has myriad military and diplomatic implications.

Dalia Dassa Kaye, Director of the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy, says efforts underway to end the hostilities offer potential for a sustainable cease-fire.

"But the cycle of violence is likely to continue without a broader strategy," Dassa Kaye says. "An unfortunate consequence of this new round of confrontation is that Hamas' political position has strengthened among Palestinians, further marginalizing the already weak Palestinian Authority ruling over the West Bank. Without renewed negotiation efforts to bring about a two-state solution, this trajectory is only likely to continue, raising the prospect of Hamas rule over all Palestinian territories.

The four men arrested in Southern California this week for plotting to join al Qaeda or the Taliban in Afghanistan to wage violent jihad on U.S. forces there appear typical of America's home-grown wannabe terrorists inspired by al Qaeda's ideology.

The apparent leader of the group is 34, a naturalized U.S. citizen who served in the Air Force. Two others are American converts to Islam in their early twenties. They pulled along a fourth pal, 21 years old, to join them. Most homegrown jihadists are U.S. citizens, median age 27. About 20 percent are Islam converts.