October 21 2013
photo by Spc. Brian J. Smith Dutton/U.S. Army
The progress of the counterinsurgency campaign in Afghanistan has improved since 2011, a new RAND report suggests.
The report applied the scorecard approach detailed in “Paths to Victory: Lessons from Modern Insurgencies,” another recently released RAND report, which examined 71 insurgencies begun and completed worldwide between World War II and 2008 to analyze correlates of success in counterinsurgency.
A key finding of that research was that a case's score on a scorecard of 15 equally weighted good and 11 equally weighted bad counterinsurgency factors and practices perfectly discriminated the outcomes of the historical cases analyzed. That is, the balance of good and bad factors and practices correlated with either a counterinsurgency win (insurgency loss) or a counterinsurgency loss (insurgency win) in the overall case.