National Security

This commentary appeared on U.S. News & World Report on January 24, 2013.

The objectives of the French operation in Mali are exactly the reverse of the NATO intervention two years ago in Libya. And once the air strikes in Mali had begun, France had little choice but to put boots on the ground. France's allies, including the United States, now need to back the intervention militarily, politically, and diplomatically.

France's decision to bomb targets in rebel held areas in Mali was initially met with widespread approval, including the backing of the United Nations Security Council. The French decision to follow up those strikes with ground forces has received a less enthusiastic response, given France's imperial history in the region and weariness in Europe about military interventions involving boots on the ground. Earlier this week, Paris and Washington were in a row over who would foot the bill for the C-17 transport aircraft the United States was using to help haul French troops into theater.

Last week's terrorist attack at the In Amenas gas complex in Algeria, along with the recent success of the militant groups fighting government forces in Mali, indicate al Qaeda and other terrorist groups are gaining influence in North Africa. Several RAND experts spoke with us about the latest developments.

Recent events in North Africa seem to indicate al Qaeda and other terrorist groups are changing gears, from Afghanistan to other parts of the world, particularly Africa. Is that accurate?

Brian Jenkins: Al Qaeda has not moved from Afghanistan to Africa. Rather, the challenges posed by al Qaeda's global enterprise have become more diffuse. Al Qaeda's central command structure in Afghanistan and Pakistan has been decimated. Under continuing pressure, al Qaeda today is more decentralized, more dependent on its affiliates and allies.

This commentary appeared on United States Institute of Peace's Iran Primer on January 21, 2013.

As commander of the Revolutionary Guards, General Mohammad Ali Jafari is one of the dozen most powerful men in Iran. He is a hard-line ideologue loyal to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He rose to power through a combination of ideological commitment and military vision. Jafari now commands one of the most feared militaries in the Middle East, which is also far better equipped than Iran's conventional army, navy and air force.

Jafari has an estimated 150,000 troops under his control. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has its own powerful army (between 100,000 and 125,000), navy (up to 20,000) and air force (about 20,000). It also oversees several thousand members in the elite Qods Force, which trains and supports foreign insurgent organizations.

This commentary appeared on USA Today on January 17, 2013.

The kidnapping of American and other Western hostages at a natural gas plant in Algeria by Islamic militants possibly in retaliation for France's military intervention in neighboring Mali, illuminates an unfortunate reality: France has inflamed the African region.

Initial news reports on the fate of hostages were conflicting following an operation by the Algerian military.

The larger repercussions from the military operation in Algeria and the magnitude of the risk of intervention by France in Mali are nearly impossible to determine. Will the Islamist groups in Mali and Algeria, or perhaps Islamists far from those countries and with no connection to Mali, take it upon themselves to respond to French and Algerian actions through further acts of terror?

This commentary appeared on U.S. News & World Report on January 17, 2013.

The French intervention in Mali, in response to Islamist rebel gains in the West African nation, was necessary. But the action brings significant risk.

France almost certainly acted because the Islamists' southern offensive last week made the existing timetable for an international intervention irrelevant. The Islamists were demonstrating surprising military capabilities and audacity, and they clearly posed an imminent threat to southern Mali, to Bamako, Mali's capital city, and to what remains of the Malian state. Immediate action was required, and the French intervention has so far received support from Malians as well as the international community...

This commentary appeared on CNN on January 16, 2013.

France's unilateral ground and air offensive in Mali came not a moment too soon. The Islamists who had seized control of the north launched a brazen offensive last week into central Mali that demonstrated their own considerable capabilities and audacity as well as the Malian army's continuing fecklessness. France had to act. Unless it creates a coalition of local allies, however, its intervention will probably, ultimately, add to Mali's chaos.

The French intervention achieves little more than pull Mali back from the brink for the time being. To achieve anything beyond protecting southern Mali from future incursions requires pushing north and deploying a much larger force—some combination of French, Malian, and ECOWAS troops. This would need to happen much faster than any of the timetables for an ECOWAS deployment that had been discussed at the United Nations. Some ECOWAS contingents are already there.

The remainder of this op-ed can be found at cnn.com.

Amb. James Dobbins, director of the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center, argues that “Israel Can Live with a Nuclear Iran” this Wednesday (Jan. 16) in a live debate at 6:45 p.m. EST at Merkin Concert Hall in New York City. He will be joined by Reuven Pedatzur, senior military-affairs analyst with the newspaper Ha’aretz, who also will argue in favor of that point. Shmuel Bar, director of studies at the Institute of Policy and Strategy in Israel and a former Israeli intelligence officer, and Jeffrey Goldberg, a national correspondent for The Atlantic, will argue against it.

This commentary appeared in The Washington Post on January 12, 2013.

The Afghan province of Nuristan is nestled in the majestic Hindu Kush mountains, along the country's northeastern border with Pakistan. Nuristan has a mystical allure. Its name roughly translates as “land of light,” and many of its blond-haired, blue-eyed inhabitants proudly trace their genealogy to the forces of Alexander the Great, who invaded around 330 B.C.

I first set foot in Nuristan in 2006 while doing research on the Afghan insurgency and was enchanted by its raw beauty and peculiar people. Nuristanis have a distinct tribal structure and culture, and at least five languages and multiple dialects are spoken there. But the area also has a darker side. Nuristan tribes have a reputation for being fiercely independent and suspicious of outsiders. The area served as the backdrop for Rudyard Kipling's “The Man Who Would Be King,” a novella about two British adventurers who tried to become rulers there. Locals mercilessly tossed one off a rope bridge to his death. They crucified the other by hammering wooden pegs into his hands and feet.

This commentary appeared on U.S. News & World Report on January 10, 2013.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai's visit to Washington this week comes at an opportune moment. With President Obama committed to a change in the U.S. role in the war in 2014 and considering how sharp the decrease should be in U.S. force levels, it is time to take stock of the war.

Most predictions are bleak. Some assume that civil war is inevitable among Afghanistan's Pashtun, Tajik, Uzbek, and Hazara ethnic groups, while others predict an eventual Taliban takeover of the capital. Yet the Afghan government is not as weak as many believe, nor the Taliban and other insurgent groups as strong.

It is becoming more likely that the United States will find itself in the middle of a crisis in cyberspace — through the escalation of tensions associated with a major cyberattack, suspicions that one has taken place, or fears that it might do so soon. The growing number of cyber incidents is rising, and the risks arising from cyberspace are perceived as growing more consequential.

But are cybercrises inevitable? And are there steps that can be taken to manage one?