National Security

This video was recorded at RAND's Politics Aside event on November 15, 2012.

Admiral Dennis Blair, former National Intelligence director, discusses how the government gathers and uses intelligence on issues including Iran, cyber warfare, and the Arab Spring. Blair spoke with Reuters Editor-at-Large Sir Harold Evans during the RAND Corporation's Politics Aside event on Thursday, November 15.

As the crisis along the border between Syria and Turkey intensifies, Turkey appears on the brink of a formal request to the North Atlantic Council that NATO deploy Patriot missiles to help defend the border. Such a demand falls short of requesting a NATO intervention or even a full-fledged allied defense of Turkish territory, but if the alliance agrees to provide the missile system, it will move NATO a step in that direction.

Turkey has a 550-mile border with Syria. As a result, it is the NATO ally most seriously threatened by the ongoing crisis. The latest border tensions date back to June, when Syrian air defense systems shot down a Turkish military aircraft. In October, mortar fire from within Syria landed in Turkey, killing five civilians and injuring several more. Last week, the Syrian government deployed MIG-25fighter aircraft against civilians in Ras al-Ain, a town along the Turkish border that had recently fallen into rebel hands.

The latest clash between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has myriad military and diplomatic implications.

Dalia Dassa Kaye, Director of the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy, says efforts underway to end the hostilities offer potential for a sustainable cease-fire.

"But the cycle of violence is likely to continue without a broader strategy," Dassa Kaye says. "An unfortunate consequence of this new round of confrontation is that Hamas' political position has strengthened among Palestinians, further marginalizing the already weak Palestinian Authority ruling over the West Bank. Without renewed negotiation efforts to bring about a two-state solution, this trajectory is only likely to continue, raising the prospect of Hamas rule over all Palestinian territories.

The four men arrested in Southern California this week for plotting to join al Qaeda or the Taliban in Afghanistan to wage violent jihad on U.S. forces there appear typical of America's home-grown wannabe terrorists inspired by al Qaeda's ideology.

The apparent leader of the group is 34, a naturalized U.S. citizen who served in the Air Force. Two others are American converts to Islam in their early twenties. They pulled along a fourth pal, 21 years old, to join them. Most homegrown jihadists are U.S. citizens, median age 27. About 20 percent are Islam converts.

Adm. Dennis C. Blair (right), former Director of National Intelligence, tried to make the case for breaking up the CIA during his tenure but didn't get very far, he said during the opening session of the RAND Corporation's Politics Aside event Thursday evening.

"I think I made it one step down the road to first base," Blair said, drawing laughter from Sir Harold Evans (left), editor at large of Thomson Reuters, and the audience. Blair said the idea—which he still advocates—would be to split the CIA into separate clandestine human intelligence collection (HUMINT), analytical, and paramilitary components. He said the agency has been tilting inappropriately toward the latter approach.

Blair downplayed the prospects for Asia going to war over "island rocks," and said he was skeptical of reports that the FBI and CIA were at odds over the Petraeus affair.

After being out of office for 12 years, Mexico's once perpetually dominant Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) will again take over the presidency next month. A question increasingly framed as a matter of national security north of the border is whether the new administration in Mexico City will continue the previous government's war on organized crime.

Despite the global economic crisis, Mexico's president-elect, Enrique Peña Nieto, will inherit an enviable economic situation. Currently Latin America's leading recipient of foreign direct investment, Mexico's economy is growing faster than Brazil's and could pass it to become Latin America's largest economy. With labor costs now comparable to those in China, U.S. firms increasingly see Mexico as a preferred location for production, although security concerns cause some hesitation.

This commentary appeared on GlobalSecurity.org on November 15, 2012.

On his first trip abroad since winning reelection—and the first ever by a U.S. leader to Burma—President Obama will confront evident opportunities and risks in pushing ahead with his bold approach to expanding U.S. ties with Southeast Asia.

Obama will presumably attempt to carefully coordinate his messaging with Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. He'll want to ensure that U.S. efforts to improve relations with Burma and Cambodia do not catch U.S. ally Thailand—which has long had strained relations with both of its neighbors—off-guard or create a gap in expectations with Bangkok.

This commentary appeared on BBC Persian on November 9, 2012.

The U.S. effort to isolate and pressure Iran in order to extract concessions on the nuclear program faces a significant vulnerability: the strong ties between the Islamic Republic and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The PRC has emerged as Iran’s biggest trade and energy partner, allowing Tehran to escape some of the worst consequences of sanctions. In addition, the Chinese leadership views Iran not only as an important economic partner, but also a potential ally in offsetting U.S. power in the Middle East and beyond. Growing competition between the United States and China in the Asia/Pacific region could translate into increasing cooperation between China and Iran, presenting an obstacle for U.S. efforts to dissuade Iran from weaponizing its nuclear program.

However, growing ties between China and Iran also presents challenges for both nations’ authoritarian regimes. The Chinese leadership does not want to appear to be abetting an increasingly isolated Iran in conflict with much of the Western world, upon which China relies on for its economic growth. There have been indications that Chinese companies have succumbed to pressure and reduced ties to the Iranian economy. In addition, the Islamic Republic is wary of being perceived as a client state of a growing foreign power. But China could also be reducing ties to Iran for the moment, waiting for the U.S. presidential election to end in order to craft a more permanent Iran policy that could benefit its long term national and economic security interests.

This commentary appeared on Newsday.com on November 9, 2012.

As we observe Veterans Day, the nation pauses to reflect upon the sacrifices of millions of veterans and their families. Honoring these sacrifices should be front and center on our policy agenda -- and not limited to one day a year. Our political leaders need to spell out, even at a time of renewed fiscal teeth-gnashing, just how they intend to ensure veterans and their families have access to high-quality health care, gainful employment and sufficient educational opportunities.

More than 2.5 million service members have been deployed to support operations in Iraq and Afghanistan since 2001, including about 100,000 from New York State. These are young men and women who have worked to protect America. Some paid the ultimate sacrifice; thousands of others continue to bear the wounds of war. As they come home, their needs for support are complex and dynamic. Effectively meeting these needs calls for integrated, comprehensive solutions delivered by a combination of government agencies, as well as the nonprofit and private sectors.

The effectiveness of the United States military depends on ensuring the well-being of its service members, veterans, and their families. Uncertainty surrounding deployments, long work hours, and separation from loved ones causes significant stress on military personnel and families, and has negative effects on the retention of key personnel. Earlier this month, President Barack Obama praised the families of the nation's armed forces when he again proclaimed November to be "Military Family Month."

RAND is a resource for research and policy recommendations that address the challenges faced by military members, spouses, and their children. Its researchers have worked to remove obstacles from the paths of returning veterans, studied the effects of deployment on military households, and evaluated the quality and cost-effectiveness of Department of Defense health-care—one of the largest health-care organizations in the nation.