Tunisia

This commentary appeared in Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb 2013 on January 1, 2013.

As popular demonstrations swept across the Arab world in 2011, many U.S. policymakers and analysts were hopeful that the movements would usher in a new era for the region. That May, President Barack Obama described the uprisings as “a historic opportunity” for the United States “to pursue the world as it should be.” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton echoed these comments, expressing confidence that the transformations would allow Washington to advance “security, stability, peace, and democracy” in the Middle East. Not to be outdone, the Republican Party's 2012 platform trumpeted “the historic nature of the events of the past two years—the Arab Spring—that have unleashed democratic movements leading to the overthrow of dictators who have been menaces to global security for decades.” Some saw the changes as heralding a long-awaited end to the Middle East's immunity to previous waves of global democratization; others proclaimed that al Qaeda and other radicals had finally lost the war of ideas.

This commentary appeared on Democracy Digest on July 18, 2012.

The notion of a "transition paradigm," in which countries move from authoritarian rule toward democracy through a sequence of stages, has been largely rejected. Many countries have been seen to settle into a "gray zone" of diverse forms of government where autocratic and democratic features are combined. Consequently, the changes underway in the Arab world may lead to various possible destinations that differ both from their points of departure and from liberal democracy.

This study considers how past experience speaks to the processes now unfolding in the Arab world, focusing on those factors likely to be pertinent in the context of the Arab world.

It has been a year since Mohammed Bouazizi set himself on fire to protest his treatment by a corrupt and abusive policewoman in Cite Bousaid in Tunisia. In that year, the Middle East and North Africa has seen revolution, rebellion, repression, and reform. What has changed? How did it happen? What's next? And what does it mean, for America and for the world?

It's easiest to say what has changed: Populations in the region have gone from being "objects" to "actors" in their own history. From the Tunisians who discovered that their passion and mass peaceful protests could topple a supposedly impregnable regime, to the courageous Syrians who defy bloody repression even now, the "Arab Spring" at its core is seen as a change in popular attitudes. Arabs emphasize the importance of "dignity," or a rejection of the "humiliations" of their treatment by authoritarian regimes. Just the thought of self-determination is revolutionary, as such ideas have been at other times in history.

This commentary appeared on CNN on May 19, 2011.

In his speech on Thursday, President Barack Obama will reportedly "reset" his Middle East policy and clarify the administration's position on the Arab Spring.

The speech comes at a critical time, especially for Egypt and Tunisia, countries with the greatest chance of achieving democratic consolidation.

The success of impending elections in these countries will be contingent on the ability of their transitional governments to demonstrate that post-Mubarak or post-Ben Ali life will be better. Yet Egypt and Tunisia face severe economic crises that could spell political doom. Their people will be listening intently for signals that Obama plans to come to their aid.