May 14 2013

At 65, RAND Continues to Make a Difference

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  • the RAND Corporation

On May 14, RAND celebrates its 65th year

To celebrate our first 60 years, we created 60 Ways RAND Has Made a Difference, an online book to illustrate our most notable contributions. On our 65th birthday, we provide five of the most recent ways in which we at RAND are proud to have made a difference.

1. Improving the lives of servicemembers, veterans, and their families

A RAND study of return-to-work programs for veterans with service-related health problems identified which programs are most effective, which provide the best return on investment, and what strategies are needed to encourage servicemembers and veterans to utilize them.

In response to the disturbing increase in military suicides, RAND researchers looked at the support programs offered by the Department of Defense, and identified improvements to make suicide prevention strategies more effective.

RAND revisited its research on sexual orientation and U.S. military personnel policy and provided the Senate Armed Services Committee with current data as it considered and repealed the policy known as “Don't Ask, Don't Tell.”

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May 13 2013

Crowd-sourcing Our Security

a woman talking to Boston police near site of Marathon bombings

photo by Johannus/Flickr.com

This commentary appeared on GlobalSecurity.org on May 13, 2013.

The investigation of the Boston Marathon bombing highlighted growing public participation in protecting communities against terrorism. People on the scene before the medical teams arrived were the real first responders, as ordinary citizens always are in such cases. Shocked by the attack, Bostonians were eager to assist authorities in running the bombers down before they could strike again. It worked both ways as police opened their filters to enlist public assistance.

Spectators provided police with their videos of the event. They assisted in identifying the bombers. They obeyed the controversial order to stay off the streets. It was a citizen's tip that led to the capture of the second suspect. The spontaneous expressions of joy at the apprehension of the second suspect reflected not only relief, but also a sense of shared achievement.

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May 13 2013

Libya Needs U.S. Help for Security

Libyans poured into the streets of Benghazi to celebrate the revolution

photo by Magharebia/Flickr.com

This commentary appeared on CNN on May 13, 2013.

The car bomb attack this morning near Benghazi hospital, which some reports suggest may have killed a dozen people, is further evidence of the pressing need for the United States and its allies to up their support for the nascent Libyan state by paying to train and equip a Libyan security force loyal to its elected government. Unfortunately, U.S. support is stalled by Washington's reluctance to spend even modest sums on Libya, a country widely viewed as rich and capable of paying its own way.

Today's attack, coupled with the strike against the French embassy on April 23, marked a new phase in the deterioration of Libya's internal security situation, which has been near anarchic since the 2011 overthrow of Muammar Gadhafi....

The remainder of this op-ed can be found at cnn.com.

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May 10 2013

H7N9 Bird Flu — Health Authorities Are Prepared, but Must Stay on High Alert

Lab specialist working on avian influenza, photo by World Bank

photo by World Bank

This commentary appeared on the Asia Healthcare Blog on May 10, 2013.

Chinese health officials announced recently that a new bird flu virus is bringing sickness and death to dozens of seemingly random victims in the eastern part of the country. Scientists have classified this new flu as subtype H7N9.

Like its cousin H5N1, this latest version of the avian flu virus successfully made the jump from birds to people. And like its predecessor it is especially deadly, according to the leader of an international investigation team from the World Health Organization (WHO). Authorities aren't certain how all its victims have been infected, but they have found no evidence, for now at least, that ongoing spread from person to person is occurring.

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May 9 2013

How to Avert a Sea Catastrophe with China

U.S. Navy patrolling the Western Pacific

photo by MC2 Adam K. Thomas/U.S. Navy

This commentary appeared in U.S. News & World Report on May 8, 2013.

Beneath the tensions over conflicting territorial claims in the East China and South China Seas, a potentially dangerous sea-power rivalry is brewing between the United States and China. Because China views U.S. naval forces in East Asian waters as menacing and a potential barrier to its access to the world's oceans, resources and markets, it is deploying anti-ship missiles, submarines, space-based sensors and cyberwar capabilities to hold those forces at bay.

China is also expanding its own naval forces to enforce its claims and extend its influence. Because this vital region could become unstable or fall under China's sway if U.S. sea power recedes or is allowed to become vulnerable, the United States will have to meet this challenge, one way or another.

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May 9 2013

The Value of Uncertainty: Assessing Global Societal Trends

Vasco de Gama Bridge, Lisbon

This commentary appeared in Bureau of European Policy Advisors Monthly Bulletin on May 9, 2013.

The desire to predict what the future holds is not a new phenomenon: it characterises most of humanity's efforts to cope with uncertainty. When planning for the future, we should understand that the capacity to predict the future is rather limited and poor. Rather, an ability to anticipate plausible trends and their potential consequences is more realistic. In this context, RAND Europe is contributing to the inter-institutional project ESPAS by analysing global societal trends until 2030 and by drawing their implications for the EU. It focuses on: inequalities and the global middle class; the spread of information and access to education; the empowerment of individuals; changing demography; mobility and migration; and work and employment. A review of the existing literature appears to be pointing to some important emerging issues.

Several forecasts report on a rise of the global middle class. The OECD estimates that between now and 2030 the size of the middle income groups will have almost tripled globally. However, the models producing these estimates are by their own admission deterministic and devoid of policy context. They fail to account for a number of plausible scenarios, including protectionist policies, geopolitical strife and the recurrence of financial crises. Of Africa's burgeoning middle class, for example, 60% remain barely out of poverty. Assuming that this group will stabilise or expand is speculative and hence risky.

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May 8 2013

Pakistan Elections: More Continuity Than Change

A public meeting of the All Pakistan Muslim League (APML) held in Chitral

photo by Ground Report/Flickr.com

A public meeting of the All Pakistan Muslim League (APML) held in Chitral

This weekend's elections in Pakistan are more likely to yield continuity than change, an outcome that could offer some opportunities for enhanced engagement between Washington and Islamabad, a pair of RAND experts told reporters on April 6.

During a conference call from Washington, Seth Jones, associate director of RAND's International Security and Defense Policy Center, and Jonah Blank, a senior political scientist, said a relatively free and fair election would be a welcome sign of political stability for a key U.S. partner in South Asia.

“There is an opportunity for reengaging a new civilian leadership that may have a short honeymoon period. …There is an opportunity to reset the U.S. relationship with Pakistan on some key issues,” Jones said.

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May 7 2013

For RAND's Dobbins, a New Diplomatic Mission

Ambassador James Dobbins

Ambassador James Dobbins

On Friday, President Obama named Ambassador James F. Dobbins, a veteran diplomat and the current director of the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center, as his special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan.

“Jim's intellect, skills, and experience will serve the United States well in this critical post,” RAND President and CEO Michael Rich said. “We are honored to have had Jim's wisdom and leadership at RAND for more than a decade and thankful for the numerous contributions he has made to our security and defense research.”

During their administrations, Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush turned to Dobbins for a range of difficult assignments, including as envoy for Afghanistan, Kosovo, Bosnia, Haiti, and Somalia.

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May 7 2013

Enhancing Security Cooperation at the Korea-U.S. Summit

ROK Navy sailors wave U.S. and ROK flags to welcome Los Angeles-class submarine USS Cheyenne to Busan

photo by MC2 Joshua B. Bruns/U.S. Navy

ROK Navy sailors welcome USS Cheyenne to Busan

This commentary appeared in The Korea Herald on May 7, 2013.

In many ways, the alliance between the U.S. and South Korea is closer today than it has been for some time. But even in a very close relationship, issues will arise that require adjustments. This understanding set the context for the summit between President Barack Obama and President Park Geun-hye. And regardless of the decisions reached at the summit, the details of many agreements will take months to be resolved.

A key challenge to the alliance is the recent round of extreme threats from North Korea, including its declaration of war at the end of March. Pyongyang's persistent belligerence has raised serious concerns about peace and security in Northeast Asia. North Korea's military inaction suggests that its bluster has been directed primarily at an internal audience, which may reflect serious political instability. This instability could present another challenge for the summit.

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May 6 2013

Searching for Clues on the Brothers Tsarnaev

police officers gathered after the Boston Marathon bombings

photo by thebudman623/Flickr.com

This commentary appeared in Chicago Tribune on May 5, 2013.

Dzhokhar Tsarnaev's high school and college classmates cannot believe he could be responsible for the Boston Marathon carnage. They describe him as kind, friendly and popular. He likes rap, marijuana and had a great time at his senior prom. He was a good student who won a college scholarship. There is no reason to think of him as anything other than a normal teenager — except, of course, the allegations that he and his brother Tamerlan placed explosives near the marathon finish line, killing three and gravely wounding scores, and the manhunt that left Tamerlan and a police officer dead, and Dzhokhar and another officer severely wounded.

As authorities gathered the pieces of this puzzle, one seemed to take the shape of the republic of Chechnya, in Russia's restive North Caucasus region. The Tsarnaev family is ethnic Chechen, though neither brother grew up in the republic. Chechnya is perhaps best known in the West for two recent wars against Russian rule. One ended in 1996 and succeeded partially. The second began in 1999 and failed utterly. In the process, what had been a largely secular separatist movement increasingly took on overtones of religious extremism, forcing those other perspectives out or into cooperation with the Russian government.

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