Blog posts from 2012

This commentary appeared on The Washington Post on December 12, 2012 as part of a debate on its Think Tanked blog.

Indiscriminate shelling, a refugee crisis, al-Qaeda-linked fighters—all these factors are driving the international community to consider intervention in Syria. But nothing is concentrating minds more than the specter of Syria breaking out its chemical weapons.

Indeed, the chemical weapons threat has raised the stakes, and negotiators need to do everything to dissuade Assad from using them. But if the weapons are used, policymakers need to prepare not only to quickly end their use, but to think past the immediate crisis and plan for the weapons' ultimate disposal. That could entail several concrete steps.

This video was recorded at RAND's Politics Aside event on November 16, 2012.

Some of the smartest people in the world disagree on whether the government should slash or boost spending to try to bolster the economy. Reuters Editor-at-Large Sir Harold Evans moderates a discussion on the topic that includes Nobel laureate Edmund Phelps and Undersecretary of State Robert Hormats at RAND's Politics Aside conference in Santa Monica, Calif.

This video was recorded at RAND's Politics Aside event on November 15, 2012.

Google Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt discusses YouTube and the internet, and how Google's position on free speech, privacy, and user-generated content resonates globally. Schmidt spoke with Reuters West Coast Bureau Chief Jonathan Weber at the RAND Corporation's Politics Aside conference in Culver City, Calif.

This video was recorded at RAND's Politics Aside event on November 16, 2012.

Ret. Gen. Peter Chiarelli, who was Army vice chief of staff and now is CEO of One Mind for Research, says budget cuts could strike the military unevenly, hurting vital programs. Chiarelli also discusses treating soldiers with post-traumatic stress while speaking with RAND Corporation President and CEO Michael Rich at RAND's Politics Aside conference in Santa Monica, Calif.

This commentary appeared on Financial Times on December 7, 2012.

The Syrian pot continues to boil, with fighting in Damascus, the aerial bombing of towns around the country, and reports that Washington is beginning to consider helping arm the rebels. President Bashar al-Assad's fall may now be inevitable, but it could yet be drawn out. And none of these developments alone contains the prospect of ending violence in the country any time soon.

The longer the Syrian civil war drags on, the more likely it becomes that Mr Assad's departure will only open a wider, more sectarian, civil conflict with unsettling ramifications for several neighbouring states.

This commentary appeared in The Orange County Register on December 10, 2012.

Economists, the media, and the general public are closely following the debate (and deadline) as policymakers struggle to come to an agreement on a solution to the potential fiscal crisis. In the shuffle, it can be easy for inaccurate numbers to form the basis for arguments and assumptions about outcomes. One particularly complex area is defense spending and associated cuts. The urgency with which the fiscal cliff question must be addressed should not excuse faulty calculations when it comes to the U.S. military's operational and personnel needs.

It is difficult to say what impact proposed cuts will have on the military's discretionary spending or how those cuts would, in turn, affect the force. However, it is important to approach this question—and the overall debate with regard to defense spending—from an accurate baseline.

This video was recorded at RAND's Politics Aside event on November 16, 2012.

Bill Frist, a medical doctor and former Senate majority leader, says the healthcare industry faces serious obstacles but he believes it ultimately will find its way. He speaks at the RAND Corporation's Politics Aside conference in Santa Monica, Calif., on a panel moderated by Reuters' senior health and science correspondent Sharon Begley. Panelists include author David Goldhill, Arthur Kellermann of RAND, and Gail Wilensky, economist and former director of Medicare and Medicaid programs.

African leaders meeting in Paris on Wednesday reportedly agreed that an African-led operation is needed to keep the western part of the continent, including Mali, from becoming overtaken by terrorists, including al Qaeda affiliates.

RAND political scientist Michael Shurkin says Mali is cause for concern because the nation's social structure appears to be falling apart, leaving openings for terrorists to exploit.

This commentary appeared on U.S. News & World Report on December 6, 2012.

A month after the announcement of a potentially historic peace deal between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, the two sides continue to iron out the details, one of the negotiators has already picked up an award for his efforts, and, most importantly, peace still reigns.

The agreement promises to end an almost 30-year-old insurgency by the Islamic separatist group by enlarging the autonomous region in Mindanao and increasing its political and economic power. If the promise is ultimately met, considerable credit would be due to the Philippine government for handling the conflict in ways which, careful study of past counterinsurgencies shows, improved the odds for success.

This video was recorded at RAND's Politics Aside event on November 15, 2012.

Ambassador James Dobbins discusses U.S. foreign policy and transitions of power around the globe with Reuters.com Opinion Editor James Ledbetter during the RAND Corporation's Politics Aside conference in Culver City, Calif.