Blog posts from 2012

This video was recorded at RAND's Politics Aside event on November 16, 2012.

Economist Stephen Roach worries that the Federal Reserve's approach to stimulating the economy will lead to a bubble. Roach also discussed whether the government will resolve the fiscal cliff with former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair and other panelists at RAND Corporation's Politics Aside conference in Santa Monica, Calif.

This video was recorded at RAND's Politics Aside event on November 16, 2012.

Former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair, former Deputy Secretary of Homeland Security Admiral James Loy, economist Stephen Roach and others talk with Reuters Editor-in-Chief Stephen Adler on a panel called Assessing Risk: Where Will it Come From? at RAND Corporation's Politics Aside conference in Santa Monica, Calif.

As the East Coast continues to rebuild a month after the devastation of Hurricane Sandy, it's important to bear in mind that this latest confluence of storms is merely one in a potential string of disasters that the region and the nation may confront due to changes in climate and other threats. As New York's Governor, Andrew Cuomo, recently wrote, "Extreme weather is the new normal."

This new normal calls for new strategies and approaches to helping individuals and communities rebuild after disasters. Fortunately, history holds lessons that can help us adapt and adjust to our new future.

Recent global disasters, from hurricanes, to tsunamis, to powerful earthquakes, vividly illustrate that recovery from disasters entails more than simply restoring physical infrastructure such as roads and buildings; it is also a long process of restoring the social infrastructure—the daily routines and networks that support the physical and mental health and well-being of the population.

This video was recorded at RAND's Politics Aside event on November 15, 2012.

Admiral Dennis Blair, former National Intelligence director, discusses how the government gathers and uses intelligence on issues including Iran, cyber warfare, and the Arab Spring. Blair spoke with Reuters Editor-at-Large Sir Harold Evans during the RAND Corporation's Politics Aside event on Thursday, November 15.

As the crisis along the border between Syria and Turkey intensifies, Turkey appears on the brink of a formal request to the North Atlantic Council that NATO deploy Patriot missiles to help defend the border. Such a demand falls short of requesting a NATO intervention or even a full-fledged allied defense of Turkish territory, but if the alliance agrees to provide the missile system, it will move NATO a step in that direction.

Turkey has a 550-mile border with Syria. As a result, it is the NATO ally most seriously threatened by the ongoing crisis. The latest border tensions date back to June, when Syrian air defense systems shot down a Turkish military aircraft. In October, mortar fire from within Syria landed in Turkey, killing five civilians and injuring several more. Last week, the Syrian government deployed MIG-25fighter aircraft against civilians in Ras al-Ain, a town along the Turkish border that had recently fallen into rebel hands.

The latest clash between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has myriad military and diplomatic implications.

Dalia Dassa Kaye, Director of the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy, says efforts underway to end the hostilities offer potential for a sustainable cease-fire.

"But the cycle of violence is likely to continue without a broader strategy," Dassa Kaye says. "An unfortunate consequence of this new round of confrontation is that Hamas' political position has strengthened among Palestinians, further marginalizing the already weak Palestinian Authority ruling over the West Bank. Without renewed negotiation efforts to bring about a two-state solution, this trajectory is only likely to continue, raising the prospect of Hamas rule over all Palestinian territories.

The four men arrested in Southern California this week for plotting to join al Qaeda or the Taliban in Afghanistan to wage violent jihad on U.S. forces there appear typical of America's home-grown wannabe terrorists inspired by al Qaeda's ideology.

The apparent leader of the group is 34, a naturalized U.S. citizen who served in the Air Force. Two others are American converts to Islam in their early twenties. They pulled along a fourth pal, 21 years old, to join them. Most homegrown jihadists are U.S. citizens, median age 27. About 20 percent are Islam converts.

This commentary appeared on Project Syndicate on November 19, 2012.

Xi Jinping, China's newly anointed president, made his first visit to the United States in May 1980. He was a 27-year-old junior officer accompanying Geng Biao, then a vice premier and China's leading military official. Geng had been my host the previous January, when I was the first US defense secretary to visit China, acting as an interlocutor for President Jimmy Carter's administration.

Americans had little reason to notice Xi back then, but his superiors clearly saw his potential. In the ensuing 32 years, Xi's stature rose, along with China's economic and military strength. His cohort's ascent to the summit of power marks the retirement of the last generation of leaders designated by Deng Xiaoping (though they retain influence).

This commentary appeared in Christian Science Monitor on November 19, 2012.

A long-simmering ethnic conflict in Myanmar (Burma) recently broke into American newspapers: At least 89 people have been killed and more than 35,000 displaced in what is being described (not entirely accurately) as Buddhist-Muslim violence. With President Obama as the first US head of state to visit this country, there are four points to bear in mind about this detour from Myanmar's road to a more open society:

1. Myanmar's reforms haven't yet taken root

President Thein Sein deserves a great deal of credit for starting to bring the nation of Myanmar (Burma) out of its self-imposed half-century of isolation. A former top general and prime minister for the military junta that has ruled the country since 1962, Mr. Thein Sein is trying to preserve much of the old order rather than overthrow it. He is often referred to as "Burma's Gorbachev"—and it is quite possible that (like the last Soviet leader) he will usher in changes that will eventually take on a life of their own.

This video was recorded at RAND's Politics Aside event on November 15, 2012.

Google Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt says there's a fight going on to save personal privacy on the web, and the General Petraeus scandal illustrates just some of the issues we face. Schmidt talks with Reuters West Coast Bureau Chief Jonathan Weber at the RAND Corporation's Politics Aside event on Thursday, November 15.