National Security

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This monthly bulletin summarizes national security documents published by the RAND Corporation in the last month. Click on any link to view the full text of the study.

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July 2005


Contents:

New Releases

  1. Reports
  2. Technical Reports
  3. Commentary

About RAND

Subscription and Ordering Information

 

A. NEW RELEASES

1. Reports

MODERNIZING CHINA'S MILITARY: OPPORTUNITIES AND CONSTRAINTS
Authors: Keith Crane, Roger Cliff, Evan Medeiros, James Mulvenon, and William Overholt

This report projects future growth in Chinese government expenditures as a whole and on defense in particular, evaluates the current and likely future capabilities of China's defense industries, and compares likely future expenditure levels with recent defense expenditures by the United States and the U.S. Air Force. The authors forecast that Chinese military spending is likely to rise from an estimated $69 billion in 2003 to $185 billion by 2025-approximately 61 percent of what the Department of Defense spent in 2003.
Read the Research Brief: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB162/
Read the Report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG260-1/


REEXAMINING MILITARY ACQUISITION REFORM: ARE WE THERE YET?
Authors: Christopher Hanks, Elliot Axelband, Shuna Lindsay, Mohammed Rehan Malik, and Brett Steele

In the Department of Defense, 63 distinct acquisition reform (AR) initiatives were undertaken from 1989 to 2002. By looking at what the AR movement “was” in the 1990s (by describing the initiatives launched under its name) and by letting acquisition personnel describe in their own words how their work was affected by those initiatives, the authors seek to shed light on what the AR movement has and has not accomplished in terms of changing the way the acquisition process works.
Read the Report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG291/


TRANSFORMATION AND THE ARMY SCHOOL SYSTEM
Authors: Michael Shanley, James Crowley, Matthew Lewis, Ralph Masi, Susan Straus, Kristin Leuschner, Steven Hartman, and Sue Stockly

This report provides an examination of policies and alternatives for increasing the contribution of The Army School System (TASS) to Army readiness and improving the integration of the Active Component (AC) and Reserve Component (RC) training systems. The report recommends that the Army adopt private-sector models in developing interactive media instruction, develop a more effective local school system to better meet future unit training needs, and improve the integration of AC-RC training institutions to leverage existing resources and expand options.
Read the Report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG328/


EXPANDING ACCESS TO MENTAL HEALTH COUNSELORS: EVALUATION OF THE TRICARE DEMONSTRATION
Authors: Lisa Meredith, Terri Tanielian, Michael Greenberg, Ana Suarez, and Elizabeth Eiseman

Federal legislation in 2001 required the Department of Defense to conduct a demonstration involving expanded access under TRICARE to licensed or certified mental health counselors. The authors present detailed findings, based on surveys and interviews with stakeholders, on the demonstration's impact on health care utilization, cost, and outcomes. The authors examine and compare pre-demonstration and post-demonstration data, and they compare results of military catchment areas that participated in the demonstration and control catchment areas.
Read the Report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG330/


AGING AIRCRAFT REPAIR-REPLACEMENT DECISIONS WITH DEPOT-LEVEL CAPACITY AS A POLICY CHOICE VARIABLE
Authors: Edward Keating, Don Snyder, Matthew Dixon, and Elvira Loredo

The report presents a model of the repair-replace decision for aging aircraft and data describing the C-5A cargo aircraft. The authors examine the decision whether to modify or retire the C-5A fleet. They also extend the modeling approach to evaluate prospective investment in additional depot-level capacity. The study's preliminary conclusion is that the C-5A's planned reliability enhancement and re-engining program modification is worthwhile if it occurs soon.
Read the Research Brief: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB158/
Read the Report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG241/


THREE PROGRAMS AND TEN CRITERIA: EVALUATING AND IMPROVING ACQUISITION PROGRAM MANAGEMENT AND OVERSIGHT PROCESSES WITHIN THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
Authors: Robert Johnson and John Birkler

Acquisition in the DoD is a major undertaking in which the defense agencies and the military departments expend significant funds. This report synthesizes a set of lessons learned from an analysis of past problems and develops a framework for evaluating management practices in ongoing development and/or production programs.
Read the Report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR758/


OUTSOURCING AND OUTFITTING PRACTICES: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MINISTRY OF DEFENCE SHIPBUILDING PROGRAMMES
Authors: John Schank, Hans Pung, Gordon Lee, Mark Arena, and John Birkler

The United Kingdom's Ministry of Defence (MOD) is preparing for the construction of the Royal Navy's two new Future Aircraft Carriers (CVFs), slated to enter service in 2012 and 2015, respectively. The CVFs could be the largest warships ever built in the United Kingdom. At the request of the MOD, the RAND Corporation looked at the risks of current contractor plans and estimated the cost implications of using alternative manufacturing options in the coming years.
Read the Research Brief: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9085/
Read the Report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG198/


MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF SHIPBUILDING PROGRAMMES: HOW CAN THE DEFENCE PROCUREMENT AGENCY MORE ACCURATELY MONITOR PROGRESS?
Authors: Mark Arena, John Birkler, John Schank, Jessie Riposo, and Clifford Grammich

The Defence Procurement Agency, part of the UK Ministry of Defence, asked the RAND Corporation to analyze how major shipbuilders and contractors monitor programme progress, to consider what information would be useful for shipbuilders to provide the agency, and to understand why ships are delivered late and why commercial shipbuilders maintain a much better schedule performance than do military builders. This monograph presents the researchers' findings and recommendations, which was based on surveys of major US, UK, and other European shipbuilders and other extensive industry research.
Read the Report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG235/


DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MILITARY AND COMMERCIAL SHIPBUILDING: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM'S MINISTRY OF DEFENCE
Authors: John Birkler, Denis Rushworth, James Chiesa, Hans Pung, Mark Arena, and John Schank

Can the United Kingdom's shipbuilding industry compete more broadly in commercial or foreign military markets? Based on literature reviews and their surveys and interviews of major shipyards, RAND Corporation researchers look at the current and past trends of shipbuilding worldwide and the primary differences between “military” and “commercial” shipbuilding. They find that any transition for UK shipbuilders outside current domestic production would not come easily.
Read the Report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG236/


2. Technical Reports

MEASURING THE TEMPO OF THE MOBILITY AIR FORCES
Authors: Tim Bonds, Dan Norton, Peter Hirneise, Pete Ellis, and Paul Killingsworth

The authors provide a new metric — the mission-day — to assess the ability of the mobility air forces (MAF) to conduct missions, train its forces, and maintain readiness. The mission-day metric measures the availability of crewmembers to fly missions while continuing training and other activities. It can detect problems arising from the operations tempo of MAF personnel as they take part in major theater operations and support U.S. forces engaged in peacetime operations around the world.
Read the Research Brief: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB149/
Read the Technical Report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR150/


THE WEAPONS MIX PROBLEM: A MATH MODEL TO QUANTIFY THE EFFECTS OF INTERNETTING OF FIRES TO THE OBJECTIVE FORCE
Authors: Christopher Pernin and Louis R. Moore

For the Army's future force, what is the appropriate mix of weapons to provide a given outcome, and how might these weapons be employed? This research offers some initial observations into the internetting of fires process, “the ability to engage a particular target using any number of potential firers who are able to engage due to being on the network which provides targeting information,” along with a foundation for understanding its relationship to combat outcome.
Read the Technical Report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR170/


3. Commentary

The following is a list of national security related commentary pieces that RAND researchers have contributed to newspapers in the past month. To retrieve past commentary pieces, please visit RAND's Commentary page: http://www.rand.org/commentary/

ONE KOREA?
Charles Wolf, Jr. (Wall Street Journal)
http://www.rand.org/commentary/2005/06/30/WSJ.html

LESSONS TO BE LEARNED FROM CONFLICTS IN BOSNIA, KOSOVO AND AFGHANISTAN
Ambassador James Dobbins (NPR)
http://www.rand.org/commentary/2005/06/28/NPR.html

STRATEGY: POLITICAL WARFARE NEGLECTED
Brian Michael Jenkins (San Diego Union-Tribune)
http://www.rand.org/commentary/2005/06/26/DUT.html

GOOD TIME TO BRIDGE THE ATLANTIC GAP
Ambassador Robert Hunter (Globe and Mail)
http://www.rand.org/commentary/2005/06/20/GM.html

MAJORITY RULE THAT RESPECTS MINORITIES
Ambassador James Dobbins (International Herald Tribune)
http://www.rand.org/commentary/2005/06/11/IHT.html

REVITALIZING U.S.-TURKEY RELATIONS
Former Secretary of Defense Frank Carlucci and F. Stephen Larrabee (Washington Times)
http://www.rand.org//commentary/2005/06/08/WT.html

WHAT'S NEXT FOR THE EU…AND THE U.S.?
Ambassador Robert Hunter (United Press International)
http://www.rand.org/commentary/2005/06/05/WT.html


B. ABOUT RAND

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