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JUNE 2009 HOT TOPICSAssessing the Impact of Imported Oil on U.S. National Security
On a net basis, the United States imported 58 percent of the oil it consumed in 2007. This dependence raises geopolitical and national security concerns and has triggered arguments for adopting policies to reduce oil imports. In fact, many members of Congress have advocated "energy independence" to reduce potential threats from imported oil to U.S. national security. But to be effective, such policies must rest on a solid conceptual and empirical understanding of both how serious the threats to U.S. national security are and how much reductions in U.S. oil imports might mitigate those threats. A RAND Corporation report evaluated commonly suggested links between oil imports and U.S. national security—including the likely national economic impact of a precipitous drop in the global supply of oil, attempts by oil exporters to manipulate exports to influence the United States or other countries in ways harmful to U.S. interests, and the role of oil-export earnings in supporting terrorist groups—and assessed the costs and benefits of potential policies to alleviate challenges to U.S. national security linked to imported oil. The study finds that: (1) an abrupt and extended fall in the global oil supply and the resulting higher prices would seriously disrupt U.S. economic activity, regardless of how much or how little oil the United States imports; (2) oil-export embargoes have been ineffective in advancing the foreign policy goals of oil exporters; (3) oil-export revenues have enhanced the ability of rogue states, such as Iran and Venezuela, to pursue policies contrary to U.S. interests; (4) trying to curtail terrorist financing through measures affecting the oil market will not be effective because terrorist attacks cost so little to perpetrate; and (5) the United States might be able to save an amount equal to between 12 and 15 percent of the fiscal year 2008 U.S. defense budget if all concerns for securing oil from the Persian Gulf were to disappear. The study concludes by suggesting energy policies the U.S. government could pursue to reduce the costs to U.S. national security of importing oil, including supporting well-functioning oil markets and imposing an excise tax on oil. Read the Research Brief: Does Imported Oil Threaten U.S. National Security?Climate, Energy, Transportation Policies: Identifying Challenges and Proposing Solutions
Climate change is becoming a focus of growing concern among policymakers and the broader public. But climate change mitigation policies are interconnected with policies in the energy and transportation sectors. Addressing that interconnection will be a major challenge for the United States in the coming years, because the competing interests of these groups can sometimes hamper progress. To address this concern, the RAND Corporation convened three workshops in June 2008 on policies for mitigating climate change in the climate change, energy, and transportation sectors. These workshops brought together government, industry, advocacy groups, and research community representatives with different perspectives on what the goals of climate change mitigation policy should be and which strategies should be implemented to achieve them. Workshop participants agreed on four themes forming the context for decisionmaking on climate issues: (1) climate change is a significant problem requiring action on many fronts; (2) climate-change mitigation is intrinsically linked to other important public-policy issues; (3) policymakers and the public differ in their recognition of the problem; and (4) executive leadership is needed to make progress on climate change. Given that broad consensus, participants identified and debated the advantages and drawbacks of specific approaches to confronting climate change. Market-based approaches, such as a cap-and-trade system and a carbon tax, were seen as needed for a policy to gain acceptance and succeed in reducing emissions, but workshop participants had varied perspectives on the specific issues. Workshop participants also discussed direct regulations, such as Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards, debating the most effective types of regulation and which level of government—federal or state—should set regulatory standards. Although all participants agreed that many technological innovations will be needed to reduce emissions, they had a range of views about the impact of new technology and policies designed to foster emissions-reduction innovations. Finally, participants agreed significant obstacles exist to achieving major emissions reductions through behavioral change—including driving less, purchasing more energy-efficient appliances and vehicles, using less electricity, and switching to alternative sources of electricity—especially in the near term. For example, one key obstacle is that existing land-use patterns make it difficult for Americans to reduce driving. Read the Research Brief: Integrating U.S. Climate , Energy, and Transportation Policies: RAND Workshops Address Challenges and Potential Solutions |
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The RAND Environment, Energy, and Economic Development Program conducts research and analysis on environmental quality and regulation, energy resources and systems, water resources and systems, climate, agriculture, oceans, natural hazards and disasters, and economic development. To access our research, please visit our Web site at http://www.rand.org/ise/environ/. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. Copyright © 2009 RAND Corporation. 1776 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90401-3208. RAND® is a registered trademark. |
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