JUNE 2009 HOT TOPICS

Understanding the Dangers of Politically Motivated Violence in Southeast Asia: Implications for U.S. Counterterrorism Policy

Extremist groups have resorted to terrorist violence in the Philippines, southern Thailand, and across the Indonesian archipelago. A recent RAND Corporation study assessed how the terrorist threat in these three regions is evolving, the extent to which local agendas are being regionalized (with a focus on Jemaah Islamiya, or JI), the nature and appropriateness of regional counterterrorism (CT) responses, and implications for U.S. CT policy.

The study found that, overall, the terrorist threat in these regions remains a serious but largely manageable security problem. As for JI, although weakened, it has shown a proven capacity to adapt and will probably never be fully expunged as a movement of radical ideas. The study also found reason for guarded optimism in terms of regional CT responses. It concluded that, while U.S. security assistance has been important to developing a more efficacious regional CT strategy and structure, much more could be done, such as better integrating CT, law and order, and development policies and addressing the issue of regional corruption.

READ THE REPORT: The Evolving Terrorist Threat to Southeast Asia: A Net Assessment

What Emerging Terrorist Threats Should Security Planners Focus On?

In thinking about emerging terrorist threats, security planners face a quandary: Not responding to threats may give terrorists an advantage in attack, but overreacting to new and novel threats may result in the very disruption that the terrorists seek.

A RAND Corporation study examined how planners can address this quandary, arguing that planners need systematic and defensible ways to prioritize among hypothetical or unusual threats, and suggested a two-stage approach. Planners should first consider whether some novel threats are "niche" threats that can be reasonably treated as "lesser-included cases" within the larger overall terrorist threat. For remaining threats, planners should assign priority based on ease of execution: All things equal (e.g., for threats with comparable potential consequences), an emerging threat scenario that is easier for an attacker to carry out successfully should be of greater concern to security planners than one that is more difficult to execute.

READ THE OCCASIONAL PAPER: Emerging Threats and Security Planning: How Should We Decide What Hypothetical Threats to Worry About?

How Ready Are Cities to Respond to a Public Health Emergency?

The Cities Readiness Initiative (CRI) was created in 2004 to help the nation's largest metropolitan areas develop the ability to provide life-saving medications in the event of a large-scale biological terrorist attack or naturally occurring disease outbreak. In 2007, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention asked RAND to evaluate CRI's impact on awardees' readiness and capability to conduct mass countermeasure dispensing above and beyond what would be the case without the program.

The evaluation showed that, overall, CRI awardees had benefited from the program's preparedness guidance and scenario focus and that the program had strengthened or encouraged the development of partnerships with other stakeholders. CRI also encouraged a variety of changes to awardees' training plans and had spillover effects on non-CRI sites. The evaluation did not address how the documented benefits compare to the program costs, however. Although there is merit to continuing CRI, the study concluded that such a decision must be accompanied by specific steps to build on CRI's existing strengths and ensure the continuing development of systems for measurement and evaluation.

READ THE RESEARCH BRIEF: Are Communities Ready to Conduct Rapid and Large-Scale Dispensing of Medications During a Public Health Emergency?

Dealing with the Security Situation in Mexico: Some U.S. Policy Options

With the worsening of organized crime, drug trafficking, illegal migration, and human trafficking and the potential concern of terrorism and rebel insurgencies, the issue of security in Mexico has grown in importance. In response, a RAND Corporation study assessed Mexico's security situation, its impact on the United States, and potential U.S. policy options.

The study identified three U.S. policy options for dealing with Mexico's security issues: engage in a strategic partnership with Mexico, emphasizing reform and longer-term institution building; maintain the status quo approach, focusing on ad hoc, issue-specific cooperation rather than reform or longer-term institution building; or institute a retrenchment approach by focusing on U.S. domestic efforts to combat security threats from Mexico and by disengaging from any partnerships with Mexico. The study assessed the impact of these three options vis-à-vis U.S. priorities and likely Mexican responses. The findings argue for a U.S. approach that takes advantage of the current window of opportunity and further engages the Mexican government in a deeper and broader relationship that strives toward a long-term strategic partnership.

READ THE RESEARCH BRIEF: What Are U.S. Policy Options for Dealing with Security in Mexico?

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