The Delphi Method

An Experimental Study of Group Opinion

by Norman Crolee Dalkey

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Abstract

This report deals with one aspect of RAND's continuing study of methods for improving decisionmaking. It describes the results of an extensive set of experiments conducted at RAND during the spring and summer of 1968. The experiments were concerned with evaluating the effectiveness of the Delphi procedures for formulating group judgments.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation research memorandum series. The Research Memorandum was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 1973 that represented working papers meant to report current results of RAND research to appropriate audiences.

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