Political Reform in the Arab World

December 2, 2011 Protesters gathered in Tahrir Square inspite of the elections, whose result was yet to be announced, paying tribute to those who got killed in the previous week clashes, and demanding faster reforms and the end of the military rule. Photo courtesy of mmoneib/flickr.com

It's been over two years since Egyptians began the massive demonstrations that forced President Mubarak to step down and added momentum to pro-democracy protests across the Middle East. Drawing on research on past regime changes and political reform in the Arab world, RAND experts continue to provide policy analysis and unique insights into events in the region. They have talked with Egypt's generals and the Muslim Brotherhood and were on the ground early in the Libya crisis. They offer recommendations for how U.S. policymakers can address the challenges and opportunities presented by the Arab revolutions as politics continue to evolve and the futures of these countries unfold.


Selected Commentary & Multimedia

Mapping Egyptian Politics: Where Is Egypt Heading and What Does That Mean for the United States? — Mar 22, 2013

egyptians-in-line-to-voteIn the March 2013 Congressional Briefing, Jeffrey Martini, a Middle East analyst at RAND, discusses data from Egyptian elections in the post-Mubarak era. After his presentation, he is joined for a panel discussion by Michele Dunn from the Atlantic Council and Samer S. Shehata from Georgetown University.

New RAND Study Examines Voting Patterns in Post-Mubarak Egypt — Mar 22, 2013

A man inks his finger after voting in Ciaro, Egypt.While much has been written on the electoral strength of Islamists in Egypt, most of the analysis has been done at the national level, ignoring regional divides within the country. A new report identifies the areas where Islamist parties run strongest, and the areas where non-Islamists are most competitive.

Anxious Whispers in Tripoli — Feb 19, 2013

The clock is ticking for Libya's future, writes Christopher Chivvis. Libya's government is dysfunctional, armed militias control much of the country, and the population is increasingly frustrated with the pace of postwar progress.

The Mirage of the Arab Spring — Jan 1, 2013

Like it or not, the United States counts among its allies a number of authoritarian Arab countries, and they are essential partners in protecting its interests, writes Seth G. Jones. The normative hope that liberal democracy may flourish in the future must be balanced by the need to work with governments and societies as they exist today.

Egypt's Constitutional Referendum Was an Opportunity Lost — Dec 21, 2012

The Egyptian process left no room for broad deliberation of the constitutional issues, or even for educating citizens about the text of the document on which they were asked to vote, writes Laurel Miller.

Political Impasse in Egypt — Dec 12, 2012

If there ever was a honeymoon in Egypt's post-Mubarak politics, it is long over. The two main ideological camps—Islamists and secular-liberals—have shown a willingness to cooperate only when brought together by a common foe, writes Jeffrey Martini.

Syria, the Case for Intervention — Dec 7, 2012

The longer this war drags on, the more radicalised become the insurgents, the more brutalised the population, the more inflamed the sectarian passions, and the more destabilised neighbouring societies, writes James Dobbins.

Don't Give Up on Egypt's Political Transition Just Yet — Nov 28, 2012

Many transitions around the world in recent decades have been just as chaotic, yet 180-degree returns to autocracy have been exceedingly rare, writes Laurel Miller.

After the Arab Spring: Turmoil and Change in the Middle East — Nov 16, 2012

At RAND's recent Politics Aside 2012 event, Ambassador Charles Ries, Vice President, RAND International, talks with Karen Elliott House, Alireza Nader, and David Rohde about what we can expect for the Middle East in 2013 and what it means for the United States and for the world.

Don't Blame Unrest on Arab Spring — Oct 21, 2012

The roots of the unrest are not in the desire to cast off authoritarian regimes that took expression in Arab Spring protests. The roots came before the uprisings, and progress will take longer than we wish, writes Laurel Miller.

Muslim Brotherhood Failing to Learn from Mistakes — Oct 18, 2012

The Muslim Brotherhood is falling into the same trap of overreach exhibited by the Egyptian military when the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) held the reins of authority during the first 16 months of the transition, writes Jeffrey Martini.

Libya and the Future of Liberal Intervention — Oct 12, 2012

As a case of military intervention, Libya does not tell us much about how useful the lower-cost, lighter footprint adopted there can be under more challenging conditions, or when the objective is broader and more transformational, as was the case at the outset in Iraq and Afghanistan, writes Christopher S. Chivvis.

What Are the Prospects for Democratization in the Arab World? — Oct 10, 2012

In this October 2012 Congressional Briefing, Laurel Miller and Jeffrey Martini discuss the challenges to democratization that Arab countries are likely to face in coming years and how the international community can help overcome such challenges.

Hands Off Syria? — Oct 8, 2012

Given Syria's complex society and external ties, the West should happily settle for a stable government not dominated by Russia or Iran, and not in military conflict with its neighbors, including Israel, writes Harold Brown.

Violence in Libya Leaves Unanswered Questions — Sep 12, 2012

two Libyans sitting in front of Gaddafi graffitiQaddafi is gone, but if violence spreads, it could call into question the no-footprint post-conflict model that the United States and its allies chose after last year's intervention, writes Christopher S. Chivvis.

Taking Syria Seriously — Aug 25, 2012

The US needs a more activist, assertive policy toward Syria aimed at ending the conflict in such a way that bolsters regional stability and facilitates a peaceful democratic transition, write F. Stephen Larrabee and Wasif Syed.

A Year After the Fall of Tripoli, Libya Still Fragile — Aug 23, 2012

The countries that helped topple Moammar Gadhafi a year ago have a special obligation to ensure the new Libyan government gets all the help it needs to respond to these new threats effectively, writes Christopher Chivvis.

Changing of the Guard in Egypt — Aug 14, 2012

Morsi's moves were certainly dramatic, and he may not be done. He has "decreed" that he has the right to select the next Constituent Assembly—deciding the constitution—if this one fails or is disbanded, writes Julie Taylor.

How to End the Chaos in Syria: Step Up Opposition Support — Aug 8, 2012

Well-meant advice and promises of postwar aid will mean much less in forging a relationship with the eventual rulers of Syria than decisive assistance now, writes James Dobbins.

The Right Way to Help Syria's Rebels — Aug 8, 2012

The Obama administration has led international efforts to isolate and sanction those most responsible for the regime's violence, and those efforts—along with diplomacy to bring Russia and China along—should be strengthened, write Dalia Dassa Kaye and David Kaye.

Fiasco in the Levant — Aug 8, 2012

The United States' ability to shape future events in Syria will only be as great as the support it gives the rebels in their fight to topple Assad, writes James Dobbins.

Syrian Scenarios — Aug 7, 2012

The most likely outcome, in my opinion, may be no outcome at all, but instead a civil war lasting years. The conflict has become an existential struggle for its participants—their survival is at stake, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

How Does Arab Spring Compare to Third Wave Transitions? — Jul 18, 2012

The changes underway in the Arab world may lead to various possible destinations that differ both from their points of departure and from liberal democracy, write Laurel Miller and Jeffrey Martini.

Egypt's New President Has the Mandate — What about the Power? — Jun 25, 2012

Mohamed Morsi's victory is a huge step in Egypt's political development, but his authorities were recently curtailed by the military and it is unclear how much power he will actually wield, writes Jeffrey Martini.

The Egyptian Military Wins Again — Jun 22, 2012

The Muslim Brotherhood now faces a choice. It can seat Mursi and continue to legitimate a post-Mubarak transition that seems designed to advance the narrow interests of Egypt's officer corps. Or it can return to the streets with the aim of unseating the military council, writes Jeff Martini.

Cairo's Candidate Shuffle — Apr 19, 2012

Just as before the disqualifications, the fundamental decision voters face is about the scope and nature of the change Egypt will undergo in the coming years. And there are still candidates representing almost every position on that spectrum, writes Jeffrey Martini.

Bringing Libya Under Control — Feb 24, 2012

While NATO countries and allies like Jordan and Qatar have started to train and equip the security forces, there is more that outsiders can do to help, writes Frederic Wehrey.

Syria is Trending Toward the Libya Model — Feb 14, 2012

If the Syrian opposition clearly asks for American help, if the rest of the Arab world supports such a military intervention, and if America's European allies prove ready to join in—and indeed lead—such an effort, the United States should contribute those military assets which only it can provide, writes James Dobbins.

The Year of the Arab Spring — Dec 20, 2011

The Arab Spring demonstrated that leaderless revolutions are difficult to repress or co-opt. Unfortunately, it is also true that leaderless revolts find it difficult to make transition to authority, writes Charles Ries.

An Open Door in Libya — Oct 20, 2011

The days and weeks after a victory like this are a golden hour that set in motion either a virtuous cycle of increasing security and economic growth, or a downward spiral into insecurity, factionalism and economic chaos, write Christopher S. Chivvis and Frederic Wehrey.

Iran's Growing State of Civil Disobedience — Sep 8, 2011

A typical Iranian has many reasons to disobey the government, whether he or she is young, an ethnic minority, a poor teacher or laborer, or a struggling student, writes Alireza Nader.

Commanding Democracy in Egypt: The Military's Attempt to Manage the Future — Aug 25, 2011

The SCAF's attempts to curtail dissent and the democratic process have fueled doubts about its true intentions. Will the military fulfill its promise to support democracy? Or will it seek to replace Mubarak's rule with its own or that of a friendly autocrat? write Jeffrey Martini and Julie Taylor.

Libyan Nation Building After Qaddafi — Aug 23, 2011

If Libya is to have a chance of replacing Qaddafi with something better, the United States, its allies, and the rest of the international community will need to pivot very quickly from the rather straightforward requirements of war fighting to taking seriously the complex and demanding tasks of peace building, write James Dobbins and Frederic Wehrey.

Nurturing the Arab Spring: What Can Be Done to Remove Existing Barriers to Freedom of Expression in the Arab World? — Jun 13, 2011

In this June 2011 Congressional Briefing, RAND researchers discuss the growing body of creative works produced by Arab authors and artists that counter the intellectual and ideological underpinnings of violent extremism, factors that thwart the distribution of such works, and policy recommendations for overcoming those barriers.

In Obama Speech, Will There Be Aid for Arab Spring Nations? — May 19, 2011

Assisting Arab democratic transitions will not eliminate religious extremism. But successful transitions would directly challenge the jihadist brands that promote attacks on America, writes Julie Taylor.

The Quiet Before the Storm — May 16, 2011

The Iranian regime faces immense internal and external pressures that are coming to the surface in surprising ways. Indeed, the relative calm prevailing now may be a sign of the great storm to come, writes Alireza Nader.

Arab Spring, not Osama bin Laden's Fall, Will Determine Middle East's Fate — May 9, 2011

The unanswered question is just what will endure in the Arab world: comparatively peaceful demonstrations leading to regime change, or brutal tactics by authoritarian regimes to crush dissent and cling to power, writes John Parachini.

Is the Arab World Changing for the Better? — May 3, 2011

If some measure of democracy does result, the elected governments likely will reflect the popular antipathy that the "Arab street" has for both the United States and Israel, writes David Aaron.

Expect Regime Change in Libya, Yemen — Apr 25, 2011

The countries in a possible "second wave" of Arab revolutions have dim prospects for consolidated democracies. Other than tribes, Libya essentially has no civil society, and it has a long-isolated educated class. Yemen has civil society organizations but fewer well-educated individuals, writes Julie Taylor.

Time to Arm Libyan Rebels: Here's How — Apr 13, 2011

The long-term objective of a train-and-equip program for the Libyan revolutionary government would be to create a professional military force in a post-Qaddafi Libya that could support democratic institutions free of extremist elements, writes Angel Rabasa.

The Allies in Libya: A New Paradigm for Intervention? — Apr 10, 2011

What has been happening in North Africa this year, in what seems to be the leading edge of a great wind of change sweeping the Arab world, will require the Europeans (along with the U.S. and others) to be deeply and durably engaged there — economically, politically and in humanitarian terms, writes Robert E. Hunter.

Obama's Calculated Gamble on Libya Strategy — Apr 4, 2011

Pushing the European allies, especially Britain and France, to take more responsibility in managing crises would reduce the costs and burdens on the United States while providing an incentive for the Europeans to take defense more seriously, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.

Arm the Libyan Rebels to Fight Gadhafi — Mar 24, 2011

What the United States did in Bosnia might hold the key for an effective response to the crisis in Libya, writes Angel Rabasa.

The Turkish Chimera — Mar 23, 2011

The Turkish model—with its emphasis on secularism and democracy—has obvious appeal in a region burdened by corrupt, autocratic, incompetent, and inefficient governments. But Turkey's historical experience and political evolution differ in important ways from Arab countries', writes F. Stephen Larrabee.

Obama Administration Should Take Holistic Approach to Middle East — Mar 17, 2011

The U.S. government is historically adept at tactics, but what President Obama needs are more people with a broader perspective. That includes engaging outsiders with a solid background in the Middle East, writes Robert E. Hunter.

What Intervention Looks Like — Mar 16, 2011

The question, then, is whether stopping the fighting—which could also require forcibly removing Qaddafi—is worth the price of deep military engagement and responsibility for Libya's postwar future, writes Robert E. Hunter.

Thinking Twice about Libyan Engagement — Mar 15, 2011

We have learned over the past couple of decades that it is deceptively easy for the world's only superpower to topple objectionable regimes—but a good deal harder to replace them with something better, writes James Dobbins.

RAND Experts Frederic Wehrey and Amb. Charles Ries Discuss the Conflict in Libya — Mar 7, 2011

Fred Wehrey, senior policy analyst, and Charles Ries, senior fellow and director of the Center for Middle East Public Policy, spoke with RAND media relations director Jeffrey Hiday about the conflict in Libya, including various options for international engagement.

Five Myths about the Muslim Brotherhood — Mar 6, 2011

Much of what we know—or think we know—about the Muslim Brotherhood's ambitions, beliefs and history is clouded by misperceptions, writes Lorenzo Vidino.

Can You Hear Libya Now? — Mar 5, 2011

The U.S. and its allies could help Libyans communicate with the outside world by deploying cellphone base stations on aircraft or tethered balloons, write Dan Gonzales and Sarah Harting.

Iran Might Not Be the Big Winner of Mideast Uprisings — Mar 4, 2011

The recent unrest may not be undermining U.S. policies toward Iran as much as some suggest, and Iran may have much to fear from the tumult in Middle East politics, writes Dalia Dassa Kaye.

Libya's Terra Incognita: Who and What Will Follow Qaddafi? — Feb 28, 2011

The new, post-Qaddafi era is likely to be marked by the emergence of long-suppressed domestic groups jostling for supremacy in what is sure to be a chaotic political scene, writes Frederic Wehrey.

RAND Experts Discuss Events in the Middle East — Mar 7, 2011

RAND experts provide an audio discussion of the humanitarian and diplomatic challenges present in the revolt in Libya, the role of the Islamic Brotherhood in the events in Egypt, and the effects of the growing strife in the Middle East on Iran.

Bahrain Protests: A Point of No Return for Ruling Family—and Obama — Feb 23, 2011

The only route out of the current impasse may be a fully functioning and pluralistic parliament like the one that enabled Bahrain's golden days, writes Frederic Wehrey.

Egypt Faces Rough, Unchartered Road — Feb 22, 2011

The most favorable outcome achievable in Egypt might be what we see in Iraq, but without the violence, writes Harold Brown.

Keep U.S. Aid Flowing to Egypt's Military — Feb 9, 2011

Continuing support for the Egyptian military will be crucial for U.S. influence and for an evolution in Egypt that can meet American interests, writes Robert E. Hunter.

The Domino Effect of Arab Unrest — Feb 1, 2011

There is no clear political party or leader ready to step in if the regime in Egypt falls. However, this protest is not without leadership; it is spearheaded by a large network of Egyptian human rights groups and other citizens, writes Julie Taylor.

Featured Research

Cover: Voting Patterns in Post-Mubarak Egypt

Voting Patterns in Post-Mubarak Egypt — 2013

To help U.S. policymakers and Middle East watchers better understand voting patterns in Egypt, RAND researchers identified regional voting trends and where Islamists are strongest. It appears they may face increasing challenges.

Cover: Libya's Post-Qaddafi Transition

Libya's Post-Qaddafi Transition: The Nation-Building Challenge — 2012

A year after Qaddafi's death, the light-footprint approach to Libya's postwar transition faces a serious test; if handled adroitly, Libya could become a positive force for democratic stability in North Africa and a valuable partner against al-Qaeda.

Cover: The Muslim Brotherhood, Its Youth, and Implications for U.S. Engagement

The Muslim Brotherhood, Its Youth, and Implications for U.S. Engagement — 2012

Since the 2011 revolution in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood has emerged as a key political player. The organization's youth merit attention not only as a challenge to organizational cohesion, but as a potential conduit for expanding U.S. engagement.

Cover: Democratization in the Arab World

Democratization in the Arab World: Prospects and Lessons from Around the Globe — 2012

Daunting challenges face countries swept up in the Arab Spring. This monograph assesses the prospects for democratization in these countries and suggests how the international community can help it succeed.

Cover: The Future of Gulf Security in a Region of Dramatic Change

The Future of Gulf Security in a Region of Dramatic Change: Mutual Equities and Enduring Relationships — 2011

The June 2011 conference titled ''Gulf Security in a Region of Dramatic Change: Mutual Equities and Enduring Partnerships'' focused on the security implications of a rapidly changing Gulf region and their potential effects on CENTCOM.

Cover: Future Challenges for the Arab World

Future Challenges for the Arab World: The Implications of Demographic and Economic Trends — 2011

This report assesses likely demographic and economic trends in the Arab world through 2020, focusing on changes that are likely to affect U.S. defense planning and U.S. policy in the region.

Cover: Identifying Arabic-Language Materials for Children That Promote Tolerance and Critical Thinking

Identifying Arabic-Language Materials for Children That Promote Tolerance and Critical Thinking — 2011

Describes the creation of developmentally appropriate criteria used to identify and screen Arabic-language works for children that promote tolerance and critical thinking.

Cover: Regime and Periphery in Northern Yemen

Regime and Periphery in Northern Yemen: The Huthi Phenomenon — 2010

Presents an in-depth look at the military conflict between the government of Yemen and the citizens in its northern region known as ''Huthis.''

Cover: Barriers to the Broad Dissemination of Creative Works in the Arab World

Barriers to the Broad Dissemination of Creative Works in the Arab World — 2009

Within the Arab world, many creative works are being produced that could play a role in countering violent extremism. This book examines the substantial barriers to the broad dissemination of these creative works and suggests ways to overcome them.

Cover: More Freedom, Less Terror?

More Freedom, Less Terror? Liberalization and Political Violence in the Arab World — 2008

Examines the effects that liberalization processes and democracy promotion have had on terrorism and political violence in six Arab countries.

Cover: The Kefaya Movement

The Kefaya Movement: A Case Study of a Grassroots Reform Initiative — 2008

This examination of Kefaya's birth, accomplishments, and decline is based on an analysis of Egyptian scholarship, Arabic-language media reports (including online and new media), and interviews with Kefaya and Muslim Brotherhood members and observers.

Cover: Building Moderate Muslim Networks

Building Moderate Muslim Networks — 2007

Drawing on the U.S. and allied experience during the Cold War building democratic networks, this study develops a ''road map'' for building moderate Muslim networks to counter the message of Islamist radicals in the war of ideas within Islam.

Cover: The Future Security Environment in the Middle East

The Future Security Environment in the Middle East: Conflict, Stability, and Political Change — 2004

Surveys several Middle East security issues and their implications for U.S. foreign policy.

Cover: The Information Revolution in the Middle East and North Africa

The Information Revolution in the Middle East and North Africa — 2003

Explores the future of the information revolution in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa.

Cover: Security in North Africa

Security in North Africa: Internal and External Challenges — 1993

Trends in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia have an important bearing on north-south security relations.

Cover: The Politics of Social Change in the Middle East and North Africa

The Politics of Social Change in the Middle East and North Africa — 1963

An attempt to analyze the cause and character of a profound revolution taking place from Morocco to Pakistan. Examines the forces, groups, ideas, and institutions now in motion.

RAND Experts

Amb. David Aaron

Amb. David Aaron

A RAND senior fellow and the former U.S. Ambassador to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in Paris. He formerly served on the RAND-Qatar Policy Institute Board of Overseers and as director of the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy.

Dalia Dassa Kaye

Dalia Dassa Kaye

A RAND senior political scientist and a faculty member at the Pardee RAND Graduate School.

Jeffrey Martini

Jeffrey Martini

A RAND Middle East research project associate, where he works on political reform in the Arab world with a specific focus on North Africa.

Laurel Miller

Laurel Miller

A senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation, focusing on national security and foreign policy issues. She is leading a study of democratization in the Arab world.

John Parachini

John Parachini

A RAND senior international policy analyst and director of the Intelligence Policy Center.

Alireza Nader

Alireza Nader

A RAND senior international policy analyst at the RAND Corporation. His research has focused on Iran's political dynamics, elite decision-making, and Iranian foreign policy.

Amb. Charles Ries

Amb. Charles Ries

Director of the Center for Middle East Public Policy at RAND, a former U.S. Coordinator for Economic Transition in Iraq, and a former U.S. Ambassador to Greece.

Julie Taylor

Julie Taylor

A RAND political scientist. Her research focuses on Middle East political and economic development, civil-military relations, and Islamist groups, with a particular focus on Egypt.

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