Political Reform in the Arab World

December 2, 2011 Protesters gathered in Tahrir Square inspite of the elections, whose result was yet to be announced, paying tribute to those who got killed in the previous week clashes, and demanding faster reforms and the end of the military rule. Photo courtesy of mmoneib/flickr.com

It's been a year since Egyptians began the massive demonstrations that forced President Mubarak to step down and added momentum to pro-democracy protests across the Middle East. Drawing on research on past regime changes and political reform in the Arab world, RAND experts continue to provide policy analysis and unique insights into events in the region. They have talked with Egypt's generals and the Muslim Brotherhood and were on the ground early in the Libya crisis. They offer recommendations for how U.S. policymakers can address the challenges and opportunities presented by the Arab revolutions as politics continue to evolve and the futures of these countries unfold.

Selected Commentary

Terror's 'Invisible Women' — Apr 4, 2012

For their part, a younger generation of female jihadists has come to believe that acts of violence can be just as liberating politically and spiritually for women as for men, writes Karla Cunningham.

Commentary

Bringing Libya Under Control — Feb 24, 2012

While NATO countries and allies like Jordan and Qatar have started to train and equip the security forces, there is more that outsiders can do to help, writes Frederic Wehrey.

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Syria is Trending Toward the Libya Model — Feb 14, 2012

If the Syrian opposition clearly asks for American help, if the rest of the Arab world supports such a military intervention, and if America's European allies prove ready to join in—and indeed lead—such an effort, the United States should contribute those military assets which only it can provide, writes James Dobbins.

Commentary

The Year of the Arab Spring — Dec 20, 2011

The Arab Spring demonstrated that leaderless revolutions are difficult to repress or co-opt. Unfortunately, it is also true that leaderless revolts find it difficult to make transition to authority, writes Charles Ries.

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An Open Door in Libya — Oct 20, 2011

The days and weeks after a victory like this are a golden hour that set in motion either a virtuous cycle of increasing security and economic growth, or a downward spiral into insecurity, factionalism and economic chaos, write Christopher S. Chivvis and Frederic Wehrey.

Commentary

Iran's Growing State of Civil Disobedience — Sep 8, 2011

A typical Iranian has many reasons to disobey the government, whether he or she is young, an ethnic minority, a poor teacher or laborer, or a struggling student, writes Alireza Nader.

Commentary

Commanding Democracy in Egypt: The Military's Attempt to Manage the Future — Aug 25, 2011

The SCAF's attempts to curtail dissent and the democratic process have fueled doubts about its true intentions. Will the military fulfill its promise to support democracy? Or will it seek to replace Mubarak's rule with its own or that of a friendly autocrat? write Jeffrey Martini and Julie Taylor.

Commentary

Libyan Nation Building After Qaddafi — Aug 23, 2011

If Libya is to have a chance of replacing Qaddafi with something better, the United States, its allies, and the rest of the international community will need to pivot very quickly from the rather straightforward requirements of war fighting to taking seriously the complex and demanding tasks of peace building, write James Dobbins and Frederic Wehrey.

Commentary

In Obama Speech, Will There Be Aid for Arab Spring Nations? — May 19, 2011

Assisting Arab democratic transitions will not eliminate religious extremism. But successful transitions would directly challenge the jihadist brands that promote attacks on America, writes Julie Taylor.

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Nurturing the Arab Spring: What Can Be Done to Remove Existing Barriers to Freedom of Expression in the Arab World? — Jun 13, 2011

In this June 2011 Congressional Briefing, RAND researchers discuss the growing body of creative works produced by Arab authors and artists that counter the intellectual and ideological underpinnings of violent extremism, factors that thwart the distribution of such works, and policy recommendations for overcoming those barriers.

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The Quiet Before the Storm — May 16, 2011

The Iranian regime faces immense internal and external pressures that are coming to the surface in surprising ways. Indeed, the relative calm prevailing now may be a sign of the great storm to come, writes Alireza Nader.

Commentary

Arab Spring, not Osama bin Laden's Fall, Will Determine Middle East's Fate — May 9, 2011

The unanswered question is just what will endure in the Arab world: comparatively peaceful demonstrations leading to regime change, or brutal tactics by authoritarian regimes to crush dissent and cling to power, writes John Parachini.

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Is the Arab World Changing for the Better? — May 3, 2011

If some measure of democracy does result, the elected governments likely will reflect the popular antipathy that the "Arab street" has for both the United States and Israel, writes David Aaron.

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Expect Regime Change in Libya, Yemen — Apr 25, 2011

The countries in a possible "second wave" of Arab revolutions have dim prospects for consolidated democracies. Other than tribes, Libya essentially has no civil society, and it has a long-isolated educated class. Yemen has civil society organizations but fewer well-educated individuals, writes Julie Taylor.

Commentary

Time to Arm Libyan Rebels: Here's How — Apr 13, 2011

The long-term objective of a train-and-equip program for the Libyan revolutionary government would be to create a professional military force in a post-Qaddafi Libya that could support democratic institutions free of extremist elements, writes Angel Rabasa.

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The Allies in Libya: A New Paradigm for Intervention? — Apr 10, 2011

What has been happening in North Africa this year, in what seems to be the leading edge of a great wind of change sweeping the Arab world, will require the Europeans (along with the U.S. and others) to be deeply and durably engaged there — economically, politically and in humanitarian terms, writes Robert E. Hunter.

Commentary

Obama's Calculated Gamble on Libya Strategy — Apr 4, 2011

Pushing the European allies, especially Britain and France, to take more responsibility in managing crises would reduce the costs and burdens on the United States while providing an incentive for the Europeans to take defense more seriously, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.

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Arm the Libyan Rebels to Fight Gadhafi — Mar 24, 2011

What the United States did in Bosnia might hold the key for an effective response to the crisis in Libya, writes Angel Rabasa.

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The Turkish Chimera — Mar 23, 2011

The Turkish model—with its emphasis on secularism and democracy—has obvious appeal in a region burdened by corrupt, autocratic, incompetent, and inefficient governments. But Turkey's historical experience and political evolution differ in important ways from Arab countries', writes F. Stephen Larrabee.

Commentary

Obama Administration Should Take Holistic Approach to Middle East — Mar 17, 2011

The U.S. government is historically adept at tactics, but what President Obama needs are more people with a broader perspective. That includes engaging outsiders with a solid background in the Middle East, writes Robert E. Hunter.

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What Intervention Looks Like — Mar 16, 2011

The question, then, is whether stopping the fighting—which could also require forcibly removing Qaddafi—is worth the price of deep military engagement and responsibility for Libya's postwar future, writes Robert E. Hunter.

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Thinking Twice about Libyan Engagement — Mar 15, 2011

We have learned over the past couple of decades that it is deceptively easy for the world's only superpower to topple objectionable regimes—but a good deal harder to replace them with something better, writes James Dobbins.

Commentary

RAND Experts Frederic Wehrey and Amb. Charles Ries Discuss the Conflict in Libya — Mar 7, 2011

Fred Wehrey, senior policy analyst, and Charles Ries, senior fellow and director of the Center for Middle East Public Policy, spoke with RAND media relations director Jeffrey Hiday about the conflict in Libya, including various options for international engagement.

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RAND Experts Discuss Events in the Middle East — Mar 7, 2011

RAND experts provide an audio discussion of the humanitarian and diplomatic challenges present in the revolt in Libya, the role of the Islamic Brotherhood in the events in Egypt, and the effects of the growing strife in the Middle East on Iran.

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Five Myths about the Muslim Brotherhood — Mar 6, 2011

Much of what we know—or think we know—about the Muslim Brotherhood's ambitions, beliefs and history is clouded by misperceptions, writes Lorenzo Vidino.

Commentary

Can You Hear Libya Now? — Mar 5, 2011

The U.S. and its allies could help Libyans communicate with the outside world by deploying cellphone base stations on aircraft or tethered balloons, write Dan Gonzales and Sarah Harting.

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Iran Might Not Be the Big Winner of Mideast Uprisings — Mar 4, 2011

The recent unrest may not be undermining U.S. policies toward Iran as much as some suggest, and Iran may have much to fear from the tumult in Middle East politics, writes Dalia Dassa Kaye.

Commentary

Libya's Terra Incognita: Who and What Will Follow Qaddafi? — Feb 28, 2011

The new, post-Qaddafi era is likely to be marked by the emergence of long-suppressed domestic groups jostling for supremacy in what is sure to be a chaotic political scene, writes Frederic Wehrey.

Commentary

Bahrain Protests: A Point of No Return for Ruling Family—and Obama — Feb 23, 2011

The only route out of the current impasse may be a fully functioning and pluralistic parliament like the one that enabled Bahrain's golden days, writes Frederic Wehrey.

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Egypt Faces Rough, Unchartered Road — Feb 22, 2011

The most favorable outcome achievable in Egypt might be what we see in Iraq, but without the violence, writes Harold Brown.

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Keep U.S. Aid Flowing to Egypt's Military — Feb 9, 2011

Continuing support for the Egyptian military will be crucial for U.S. influence and for an evolution in Egypt that can meet American interests, writes Robert E. Hunter.

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The Domino Effect of Arab Unrest — Feb 1, 2011

There is no clear political party or leader ready to step in if the regime in Egypt falls. However, this protest is not without leadership; it is spearheaded by a large network of Egyptian human rights groups and other citizens, writes Julie Taylor.

Commentary

Featured Research

Cover: The Future of Gulf Security in a Region of Dramatic Change

The Future of Gulf Security in a Region of Dramatic Change: Mutual Equities and Enduring Relationships — 2011

The June 2011 conference titled ''Gulf Security in a Region of Dramatic Change: Mutual Equities and Enduring Partnerships'' focused on the security implications of a rapidly changing Gulf region and their potential effects on CENTCOM.

Full Document

Cover: Future Challenges for the Arab World

Future Challenges for the Arab World: The Implications of Demographic and Economic Trends — 2011

This report assesses likely demographic and economic trends in the Arab world through 2020, focusing on changes that are likely to affect U.S. defense planning and U.S. policy in the region.

Full Document

Cover: Identifying Arabic-Language Materials for Children That Promote Tolerance and Critical Thinking

Identifying Arabic-Language Materials for Children That Promote Tolerance and Critical Thinking — 2011

Describes the creation of developmentally appropriate criteria used to identify and screen Arabic-language works for children that promote tolerance and critical thinking.

Full Document

Cover: Regime and Periphery in Northern Yemen

Regime and Periphery in Northern Yemen: The Huthi Phenomenon — 2010

Presents an in-depth look at the military conflict between the government of Yemen and the citizens in its northern region known as ''Huthis.''

Full Document

Cover: Barriers to the Broad Dissemination of Creative Works in the Arab World

Barriers to the Broad Dissemination of Creative Works in the Arab World — 2009

Within the Arab world, many creative works are being produced that could play a role in countering violent extremism. This book examines the substantial barriers to the broad dissemination of these creative works and suggests ways to overcome them.

Full Document

More Freedom, Less Terror? Liberalization and Political Violence in the Arab World — 2008

Examines the effects that liberalization processes and democracy promotion have had on terrorism and political violence in six Arab countries.

Full Document

The Kefaya Movement: A Case Study of a Grassroots Reform Initiative — 2008

This examination of Kefaya's birth, accomplishments, and decline is based on an analysis of Egyptian scholarship, Arabic-language media reports (including online and new media), and interviews with Kefaya and Muslim Brotherhood members and observers.

Full Document

Cover: Building Moderate Muslim Networks

Building Moderate Muslim Networks — 2007

Drawing on the U.S. and allied experience during the Cold War building democratic networks, this study develops a ''road map'' for building moderate Muslim networks to counter the message of Islamist radicals in the war of ideas within Islam.

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Cover: The Future Security Environment in the Middle East

The Future Security Environment in the Middle East: Conflict, Stability, and Political Change — 2004

Surveys several Middle East security issues and their implications for U.S. foreign policy.

Full Document

Cover: The Information Revolution in the Middle East and North Africa

The Information Revolution in the Middle East and North Africa — 2003

Explores the future of the information revolution in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa.

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Security in North Africa: Internal and External Challenges — 1993

Ian O. Lesser

Trends in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia have an important bearing on north-south security relations.

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Cover: The Politics of Social Change in the Middle East and North Africa

The Politics of Social Change in the Middle East and North Africa — 1963

Manfred Halpern

An attempt to analyze the cause and character of a profound revolution taking place from Morocco to Pakistan. Examines the forces, groups, ideas, and institutions now in motion.

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RAND Experts

Amb. David Aaron

A RAND senior fellow and the former U.S. Ambassador to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in Paris. He formerly served on the RAND-Qatar Policy Institute Board of Overseers and as director of the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy.