The State of the Union 2012
In his 2012 State of the Union Address, President Barack Obama spoke about key policy issues that are on the minds of many Americans, including the financial crisis, jobs and manufacturing, education, clean energy, U.S. servicemembers, the transition occurring in Afghanistan, Iran's nuclear ambitions, and the wave of change that has washed across the Middle East and North Africa. Below is a selection of reports, testimony, and commentaries that present findings of RAND's work in many of these areas. With its commitment to objective research and analysis RAND has endeavored to enrich the policy debate and provide strategies decisionmakers can use as they address the challenges ahead.
Education
President Obama said, "A good teacher can increase the lifetime income of a classroom by over $250,000. A great teacher can offer an escape from poverty to the child who dreams beyond his circumstance." RAND research and analysis on teaching explores a wide range of topics, including instructional practices, technology in the classroom, class size, teacher recruitment and retention, and teacher quality and effectiveness.
Featured Findings
January 2012 marks the 10th anniversary of the signing of the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001. RAND has studied education issues for over three decades and our researchers continue to further the education policy debate and provide recommendations for addressing key limitations of the law.
High school graduation is widely valued because it usually leads to higher earnings for individuals and also because communities—and indeed nations—with educated citizens have greater productivity and economic growth. This issue brief reviews the importance of high school graduation, describes recent trends in graduation rates, and presents research-based strategies for promoting high school graduation.
Pittsburgh instituted a new college scholarship program to encourage eligible students to continue their education. An assessment of the program offers recommendations for improving its short- and long-term effectiveness.
A New York City program designed to improve student performance through school-based financial incentives for teachers did not improve student achievement, most likely because it did not change teacher behavior and the conditions needed to motivate staff were not achieved.
Motivation alone does not improve schools. Even if incentives inspire staff to improve practices or work together, educators may not have the capacity or resources to bring about improvement, writes Julie Marsh.
Teacher effectiveness is multifaceted, and policymakers need to consider many factors, not just annual test scores, in assessing teachers' contributions to student learning.
In a TEDx presentation, Brian M. Stecher, Associate Director, RAND Education, suggests three steps we need to take to cultivate schools where students can thrive.
A multiyear, National Science Foundation-funded study found weak positive associations between reform-oriented mathematics and science instruction and achievement. Encouraging teachers to adopt such instruction is unlikely to be an effective strategy for promoting large and rapid student improvement.
The Math Science Partnership of Southwest Pennsylvania has made progress toward its goals of increasing student math and science achievement, increasing the quality of the educator workforce, and creating sustainable partnerships.
Is the U.S. in danger of losing its competitive edge in science and technology (S&T)? At a conference convened by RAND, experts from academia, government, and the private sector reviewed evidence and provided a partial survey of the potential erosion of U.S. S&T capability.
The results from Montgomery County demonstrate that an integrative housing policy can be an effective form of school policy for disadvantaged children, writes Heather Schwartz.
The loss of knowledge and educational skills during the summer is cumulative over the course of a student's career and further widens the achievement gap between low- and upper-income students. Those who attend summer programs can disrupt that loss and do better in school.
RAND Experts
Brian Stecher is associate director of RAND Education and author of Improving Accountability in Public Education.
Laura Hamilton is a senior behavioral scientist and co-author of Expanded Measures of School Performance.
Energy
Energy plays a vital role in the global economy: fossil fuel dependency, the stability of the supply chain, and the prospects for harnessing previously untapped resources affect a range of policy concerns. As President Obama stated, "This country needs an all-out, all-of-the-above strategy that develops every available source of American energy—a strategy that's cleaner, cheaper, and full of new jobs." RAND has conducted research on alternative fuels, energy conservation, energy security, emerging technologies, and energy use by the U.S. armed forces.
Featured Research and Testimony
If the U.S. military increases its use of alternative fuels, there will be no direct benefit to the nation's armed forces. It makes more sense for the military to direct its efforts toward using energy more efficiently.
Achieving the potential economic and national security benefits offered by alternative fuels requires that their domestic production must be an appreciable fraction of domestic demand for liquid fuels. Alternative fuels derived from oil shale and coal have the potential to meet that important criterion.
The U.S. Congress and federal agencies are considering legislative proposals to promote the development of unconventional fuels in the United States. RAND assessed the effectiveness of various federal financial incentive packages that could successfully promote early commercial experience with coal-to-liquids production.
In testimony presented before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, James T. Bartis addresses critical R&D needs and opportunities associated with fossil energy.
The federal government can spark the creation of a commercially competitive coal-to-liquids industry by fostering early development of plants that would produce transportation fuels from coal, as well as by expanding its investment in carbon sequestration technology to help limit, and possibly reduce, greenhouse gas emissions levels.
Coal-fired electricity generating units (EGUs) provide about 46 percent of the electricity generated in the U.S., yet most of the existing coal-fired electricity fleet is 25–45 years old. Can the industry maintain the capability to design, construct, and operate coal-fired EGUs within reasonable cost, schedule, performance, environmental, and quality expectations?
Energy plays a vital role in the success of the global economy, but obtaining and using energy can also impact the environment. RAND researchers in the Environment, Energy, and Economic Development Program help policymakers worldwide make informed decisions on meeting their nations' energy needs while mitigating long-term life cycle environmental risks.
RAND Experts
James Bartis is a senior policy researcher focusing on fossil and alternative fuels. He is the author of Opportunities for Alternative Fuels Production.
Spending/Regulation
President Obama highlighted a variety of topics related to the budget, spending, and regulation. He stated that he is "prepared to make more reforms that rein in the long-term costs of Medicare and Medicaid." RAND addresses the rising costs of health care through innovative, high-profile research that looks for ways to improve efficiency and reduce costs while taking into account the effects on the average American family.
In discussing the state of the financial system since the crisis of 2008, President Obama said that "we need smart regulations to prevent irresponsible behavior," as well as a plan to reevaluate financial and business regulations to "eliminate rules that don't make sense" and encourage innovation in small businesses. RAND has taken an active role in improving public understanding of corporate governance, ethics issues, and business regulation. At the individual level, RAND analysis of the process of financial decisionmaking has led to the development of educational tools and programs that help people prepare for long-term financial stability.
Featured Research
The Rising Costs of Health Care
How do soaring health care costs affect the finances of the average American family? A new RAND Health study shows that the doubling of health costs between 1999 and 2009 largely wiped out an average family's real income gains.
In just ten years, U.S. families nearly doubled their spending on health care, but the complex ways in which Americans paid for health care obscured how this happened.
The debate over the new U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission whistleblower rules overshadows a deeper question for corporations and regulators—how best to reconcile strong compliance and internal reporting mechanisms with the incentives created by the Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act to report fraud directly to the SEC.
RAND's three federally funded research and development centers apply research capital they have developed over the years to help decisionmakers solve problems and often save money as well. This publication lists and briefly summarizes some RAND projects undertaken over the past ten years that have helped save the government money or that have identified ways to do so. Amounts saved are estimated.
These videos offer presentations from "Emerging Research on Financial Literacy: A Workshop," held by the Financial Literacy Center, a joint center of the RAND Corporation, Dartmouth College, and the Wharton School. The workshop brought together FLC scholars with policymakers and practitioners in the financial literacy field.
As part of his On-the-Job Training, PRGS student Christopher McClaren (cohort '05) is working with the RAND Center for Health and Safety in the Workplace to explore ways to improve workplace safety.
The RAND Center for Corporate Ethics and Governance, or CCEG, is committed to improving public understanding of corporate ethics, law, and governance, and to identifying specific ways that businesses can operate ethically, legally, and profitably at the same time.
The collapse of financial markets in late 2008 has invited renewed questions about the governance, compliance, and ethics practices of firms. RAND convened a symposium to explore the perspective and role of corporate boards of directors in overseeing ethics and compliance matters within their firms.
Ongoing research at the Center for Financial and Economic Decision Making (CFED) addresses the process of financial decision making over the life-cycle, in particular assessing how people collect information; how they think about risks, and probabilities; and how well they match their decisions to their preferences and interests.
People with low levels of financial literacy are more easily influenced by the default settings of employee savings plans. The Financial Literacy Center is measuring differences in default effects for employees at companies with auto-enrollment retirement plans, focusing on differential behavior by income.
Veterans
"Our freedom endures because of the men and women in uniform who defend it. As they come home, we must serve them as well as they served us," said President Obama. RAND has conducted research and provided recommendations to policymakers on quality and cost-effective health care for current and retired military personnel and their families; the mental health and cognitive needs of U.S. service members returning from Afghanistan and Iraq; the health and employment problems that hinder veterans' reintegration into civilian life; and the role of military spouses.
Featured Research
As Veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan return to civilian life, they encounter difficulties related to accessing health care, employment, and education. RAND is a resource for research and policy recommendations that address the challenges veterans and their families face.
In this December 2011 Congressional Briefing, Katherine Watkins discusses the VA's capacity to deliver care to veterans with mental health and substance use disorders and the quality of the care that is delivered. This congressionally mandated study is the first comprehensive look at the full spectrum of clinical services provided to veterans with mental health issues.
Treating U.S. veterans with mental illness and substance use disorders is more expensive than caring for those with other medical conditions but the quality of mental health care offered by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs is as good as or better than that reported by privately insured, Medicare, or Medicaid populations.
The Post-9/11 GI Bill increased the higher education benefits available to eligible individuals, but its implementation presented challenges to both student veterans and campus administrators.
Despite the recent drawdown in Iraq, the high operational tempo of the past decade that has included longer and more-frequent deployments has resulted in significant mental health problems among some servicemembers. More than 200 programs are available to help treat psychological health and traumatic brain injury issues, but better coordination of those efforts is needed.
Nearly 20 percent of military service members who have returned from Iraq and Afghanistan — 300,000 in all — report symptoms of post traumatic stress disorder or major depression, yet only slightly more than half have sought treatment.
The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have put America's all-volunteer force to its most severe test since its inception in 1973. Explore this interactive infographic to learn more about how the troops and their families are faring.
RAND Experts
Terri Tanielian is a senior social research analyst at the RAND Corporation and director of the RAND Center for Military Health Policy Research. She oversees RAND's diverse military health research portfolio and maintains relationships with senior military health leaders.
Bernard Rostker is a RAND senior fellow who was formerly Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness, the Secretary of Defense's senior policy advisor on recruitment, career development, pay, and benefits for 1.4 million active-duty military personnel, 1.3 million Guard and Reserve personnel, and 725,000 DoD civilians.
Anita Chandra is a behavioral scientist who has led efforts to evaluate the state of child health in the District of Columbia, assess the school health program in D.C., and examine the impact of deployment on children from military families.
Counterterrorism
President Obama discussed the death of bin Laden, the winding down of the war in Afghanistan, and U.S. efforts to build an enduring partnership with Afghanistan so that it is never again a source of attacks against America. As a world leader in research on terrorism, counterinsurgency, and homeland security, RAND continues to advise the public on individual preparedness, first responders on crisis management, and policymakers on counterterrorism strategies.
Featured Research
There are three key ingredients for peace in Afghanistan. Afghan leaders must negotiate a peace. Afghan neighbors must respect the peace. And Afghan soldiers and police must keep the peace.
Security force assistance (SFA) is a central pillar of the counterinsurgency campaign being waged by U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan. An analysis of SFA efforts documents U.S. and international approaches to building the Afghan National Security Forces from 2001 to 2009 and provides recommendations and their implications for the U.S Army.
The 10th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks warrants a thoughtful review of America's progress and future strategy. In this
RAND Review cover story, RAND experts offer perspectives on Afghan-led solutions, ways to counter al Qaeda, air passenger security, and compensation for those affected by terrorism.
Despite al Qaeda's increasing use of the Internet to attempt to radicalize and recruit homegrown terrorists in the United States, the turnout has been tiny and mostly inept.
Backed by decades of terrorism research, RAND experts provide insight into the current threat of al Qaeda and the state of its leadership a year after the death of bin Laden.
An analysis of 30 insurgencies worldwide between 1978 and 2008 determined what factors were ultimately correlated with success or defeat. Comparing Afghanistan in early 2011 against this scorecard results in an uncertain outcome for the conflict there, but the findings may help provide additional guidance as operations continue.
A new collection of essays by experts from the RAND Corporation examines America in the decade since the 9/11 terrorist attacks, focusing a critical eye on the nation's actions since the attacks and outlining changes in strategy needed to improve efforts against jihadist groups.
In focusing on the Haqqani network—which enjoys little popular support in Afghanistan—the United States is neglecting the more important (and difficult) task of dealing with the Taliban sanctuary in Pakistan's Baluchistan Province, writes Seth G. Jones.
On June 16, 2011, the RAND Corporation presented "After bin Laden: The United States, Afghanistan, and Pakistan" as part of its public outreach series in Santa Monica, California. The program featured senior political scientist Seth Jones, an expert on Afghanistan, Pakistan, and al Qa'ida who has worked abroad in conflict zones over the last several years.
RAND Experts
Seth Jones is a senior political scientist and served as advisor to the commanding general, U.S. Special Operations Forces, in Afghanistan. He is the author of the forthcoming book Hunting in the Shadows: The Pursuit of Al Qa'ida Since 9/11 (W.W. Norton).
Arturo Munoz is a senior political scientist and served as an advisor to the U.S. Marines in Afghanistan. He is co-author of Afghanistan's Local War: Building Local Defense Forces.
Amb. James Dobbins, President George W. Bush's first special envoy to Afghanistan in 2003.
Arab Spring
It's been a year since Egyptians began the massive demonstrations that forced President Mubarak to step down and added momentum to pro-democracy protests across the Middle East. Drawing on research on past regime changes and political reform in the Arab world, RAND experts continue to provide policy analysis and unique insights into events in the region. They have talked with Egypt's generals and the Muslim Brotherhood and were on the ground early in the Libya crisis. They offer recommendations for how U.S. policymakers can address the challenges and opportunities presented by the Arab revolutions as politics continue to evolve and the futures of these countries unfold.
What steps might U.S. policymakers now take to encourage democracy in Egypt, Syria, Libya, and Tunisia? What would it take for these countries to become stable democracies? RAND experts explore such questions and provide unique insight into current events in the region, suggest options the United States has in responding, and discuss implications for the future.
The Arab Spring demonstrated that leaderless revolutions are difficult to repress or co-opt. Unfortunately, it is also true that leaderless revolts find it difficult to make transition to authority, writes Charles Ries.
An assessment of likely demographic and economic challenges in the Arab world through 2020—such as population growth rates and continued global oil production—provides a better-informed platform on which to build U.S. defense planning and policy.
The SCAF's attempts to curtail dissent and the democratic process have fueled doubts about its true intentions. Will the military fulfill its promise to support democracy? Or will it seek to replace Mubarak's rule with its own or that of a friendly autocrat? write Jeffrey Martini and Julie Taylor.
If Libya is to have a chance of replacing Qaddafi with something better, the United States, its allies, and the rest of the international community will need to pivot very quickly from the rather straightforward requirements of war fighting to taking seriously the complex and demanding tasks of peace building, write James Dobbins and Frederic Wehrey.
In this June 2011 Congressional Briefing, RAND researchers discuss the growing body of creative works produced by Arab authors and artists that counter the intellectual and ideological underpinnings of violent extremism, factors that thwart the distribution of such works, and policy recommendations for overcoming those barriers.
Converting vast amounts of digital data into meaningful information for research and analysis is a challenge for many different types of organizations. At the QCRI Seminar Series in Doha on Dec. 12, Dalal will discuss RAND's approach to managing data and to harnessing the power of information analytics and web technologies.
Iran
Iran's political evolution, nuclear ambitions, and reactions to the Arab Spring present demanding challenges to policymakers who must make decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty. President Obama stated that America is determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and will take no options off the table to achieve that goal. RAND experts address these issues, considering factors such as regional alliances, Iranian institutions and economic trends, as well as the significant roles played by nations such as China, Saudia Arabia, and Iraq.
Dissuading Iran from developing nuclear weapons faces major obstacles, but it's too soon to give up trying as it may still be possible to influence the outcome of Iran's internal political debate.
An attack on Iranian nuclear facilities by the United States or Israel would make it more, not less difficult to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions. The sympathy aroused for Iran would make containment of Iranian influence much more difficult for Israel, for the U.S., and for the Arab regimes currently allied with Washington.
By refusing to face more squarely the probability that Iran will eventually acquire a nuclear weapons capability, the American and Israeli governments actually reduce their ability to dissuade Iran from crossing that threshold, writes James Dobbins.
The United States should engage in activities that increase understanding about how a deterrence relationship between Israel and Iran may evolve, and encourage direct communication between Israelis and Iranians through informal diplomatic channels.
Social media was used in the 2009 protests to organize and communicate under government censorship. An analysis of more than 2.5 million tweets discussing the Iran election holds promise for such policy uses as assessing public opinion and forecasting events such as large-scale protests.
RAND Experts
Alireza Nader is international affairs analyst who focuses on Iran. He is the co-author of Iran's Nuclear Future: Critical U.S. Policy Choices.
Fred Wehrey is a senior policy analyst and co-author of Coping with a Nuclearizing Iran.
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