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What does the obesity epidemic mean for future health care costs?
- The obese will spend 40% more time disabled than their normal weight counterparts (Figure 1).
- And greater disability translates into higher health care spending (Figure 2).
- If historical trends continue through 2020, up to one-fifth of health care expenditures would be devoted to treating the consequences of obesity (Figure 3).
Medicare spending on an obese person is 35 percent higher than spending on a person of normal weight. That translates to about $38,000 more over the lifetime of an obese 70-year-old than what Medicare will spend on a beneficiary of similar age and normal weight.
Figure 1: How Weight Affects Disability
SOURCE: Lakdawalla DN, Goldman DP, Shang B, "The Health and Cost Consequences of Obesity Among the Future Elderly," Health Affairs—Web Exclusive, September 26, 2005, pp. W5-R30–W5-R41.
Figure 2: Projected Lifetime Costs to Medicare (2005 dollars)
SOURCE: Lakdawalla DN, Goldman DP, Shang B, "The Health and Cost Consequences of Obesity Among the Future Elderly," Health Affairs—Web Exclusive, September 26, 2005, pp. W5-R30–W5-R41.
Figure 3: One-Fifth of Health Care Expenditures Would be Devoted to Treating the consequences of Obesity
SOURCE: Sturm, R., J. Ringel, and T. Andreyeva, "Increasing Obesity Rates and Disability Trends," Health Affairs, Vol. 23, No. 2, March/April 2004, pp. 1–7.

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