Iran
Selected Research, Commentary and Congressional Testimony
The Fall of the Wall: A World Restored? — Nov. 9, 2009
When the Berlin Wall fell 20 years ago, those raised in the shadow of possible nuclear holocaust felt disbelief, followed by relief and hope that the end of the Cold War would bring lasting peace, and the end of conflict. And in Europe, at least, it mostly did – but not everywhere, writes Christopher S. Chivvis.
Commentary
International Affairs Research Area
The Day After... in Jerusalem: A Strategic Planning Exercise on the Path to Middle East Peace — Nov. 6, 2009
Starting in 2008, the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy conducted a series of exercises to help the new U.S. administration address the challenges of the Arab-Israeli conflict (and of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in particular) as a key component of the broader effort to secure stability in the Middle East.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Fighting Terror the Cold War Way — Oct. 14, 2009
With much talk about how to "win hearts and minds" in the Muslim world, it's surprising that few are looking back to a global contest of ideas that the U.S. and its allies categorically won: the Cold War, write Todd C. Helmus and Dalia Dassa Kaye.
CommentaryTerrorism and Homeland Security Research Area
Finding a Solution to Iran — Sep. 30, 2009
The revelation of a secret nuclear facility near the holy city of Qom, and the likely existence of other advanced facilities across Iran, makes more urgent the need for a quick solution to the nuclear impasse, writes Alireza Nader.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
Barriers to the Broad Dissemination of Creative Works in the Arab World — Sep. 22, 2009
Many analysts have examined the media that violent extremists use to communicate their core messages. Far less research, however, has been devoted to the growing body of creative works produced by Arab authors and artists that counter the intellectual and ideological underpinnings of violent extremism.
Full DocumentThe Arts Research Area
The Right Move in Europe: Improved Opportunities with NATO, Russia — Sep. 22, 2009
Obama's decision to alter course on missile defense was the right choice. Those who call it a capitulation to Russia are wrong, and it plays into Russia's hands to portray the decision in that manner. But the change of course will have to be complemented with more appropriate initiatives, writes Christopher S. Chivvis.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Real Threats, Real Fears, Real Defenses — Sep. 21, 2009
Critics of the Bush administration missile defense plans for Central Europe have charged that the U.S. would be deploying defenses that did not work against a threat that did not exist. It would also defend countries not threatened by Iran, while leaving Iran's more likely victims entirely uncovered, writes James Dobbins.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
China's International Behavior: Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification — Aug. 27, 2009
China is a global actor of significant and growing importance, now integrated into the international system and altering that system's dynamics. The complexity of China's ever-changing global activism raises questions about its intentions and the implications for global stability and prosperity.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
How Russia Can and Can't Help Obama — Aug. 26, 2009
In hindsight, KGB analysts and Soviet officials were extraordinarily prescient about the perils of Islamist terrorism and the fallout from the Afghan jihad. But could Russia, for all its faults and foibles, be a more valuable counterterrorism partner today, asks Brian Michael Jenkins.
CommentaryTerrorism and Homeland Security Research Area
Limited Options: Deterring North Korea and Iran — Aug. 14, 2009
The question today is no longer whether the United States can still prevent North Korea and Iran from emerging as nuclear-armed regional adversaries, but instead, how to prevent them from being empowered by their nuclear weapons. This won't be easy, writes Lowell H. Schwartz.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
World Economic Recession Unlikely to Have Lasting Geopolitical Consequences — Jul. 30, 2009
Will the current global economic recession have long-term geopolitical implications? Assuming that economic recovery begins in the first half of 2010, lasting structural alterations in the international system — a substantial change in U.S.-China relations, for example — are unlikely. This is because economic performance is only one of many geopolitical elements that shape countries' strategic intent and core external policies.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Iran's Real Winners: The Revolutionary Guards — Jun. 22, 2009
Despite the huge protests on the streets of Tehran, Iranian President Ahmadinejad has once again triumphed. A relative newcomer to Iranian politics, his re-election and subsequent crackdown on the demonstrators suggest that the Iranian political system is moving in a new and potentially dangerous direction, writes Alireza Nader.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Lebanon Vote Tilts to the West — Jun. 10, 2009
The result of the June 7 parliamentary elections in Lebanon is a boon for the U.S., but it would be well-advised to play for the long term in Lebanon with a pragmatic policy that deals with the reality of Hezbollah's political power while continuing to strengthen moderate forces and national institutions, write Aram Nerguizian and Ghassan Schbley.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Obama's Turkish Dilemma — Apr. 6, 2009
President Obama's visit to Ankara this week highlights Turkey's growing strategic importance to the United States - and a high stakes dilemma for the President and for U.S. strategic interests, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Space: The Final Junkyard? — Apr. 2, 2009
Celestial real estate is increasingly popular. All in all more than 900 satellites, along with tens of thousands of bits of man-made space detritus, jockey for elbow room overhead. The result: a growing threat our atmosphere will soon become so crowded with floating junk as to become almost unusable, write Caroline Reilly and Peter D. Zimmerman.
CommentaryScience and Technology Research Area
Iran's New Contender — Mar. 24, 2009
Iran's presidential race just got more interesting, with former Prime Minister Mousavi throwing his hat in the ring and former President Khatami withdrawing his. This development poses the most significant challenge yet to current President Ahmadinejad - and a potential opportunity to alter the relationship between Iran and the West, writes Alireza Nader.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Implications for U.S. of the Saudi-Iranian Struggle for Influence in the Middle East — Mar. 17, 2009
Saudi Arabia and Iran have long been rivals in the Middle East, but the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003 and the ongoing war in Iraq have increased tensions between the two states. This study analyzes the Saudi-Iranian struggle for influence in Iraq, the Persian Gulf, Lebanon and Palestine and its implications for U.S. interests.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Is Iraq Safe Yet? — Mar. 5, 2009
The Obama administration's decision to withdraw the bulk of United Sates troops from Iraq over the next 19 months has sparked fears that Iraq will once again plunge into the wide-scale and debilitating violence that it endured from 2004 to 2007. Those fears are, for the most part, overblown, writes Lowell Schwartz.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
To Talk With Iran, Stop Not Talking — Mar. 3, 2009
If the dominant imperative is to stop Iran from getting the bomb, every month counts. Perhaps the simplest -- and certainly the quickest -- way to launch a dialogue with Iran, and the one least likely to play unhelpfully into the upcoming Iranian election, would be to simply stop not talking to Tehran, writes James Dobbins.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
Power to the People: Rebooting Conventional Diplomacy — Feb. 27, 2009
The story of how President Obama engineered a grass-roots campaign, mobilizing formerly disengaged U.S. citizens with new media and new technologies, has reached almost mythological proportions. Less well known is the story of similar grass-roots efforts emerging in local communities around the world, write Cherl Benard and Edward O'Connell.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Obama's Foreign Policy Team and U.S.-Korean Relations — Feb. 16, 2009
The concrete contours of President Obama's foreign policy team have finally begun to emerge. What is intriguing is how many assignments are being given to those who have worked on the Korean peninsula, writes Chaibong Hahm.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
Going the Distance — Feb. 15, 2009
Afghanistan has a reputation as a graveyard of empires, based as much on lore as on reality.... Yes, the situation is serious, but it's far from doomed. We can still turn things around if we strive for a better understanding of the Afghan insurgency and work to exploit its many weaknesses, writes Seth G. Jones.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
Afghanistan's Growing Security Challenge — Jan. 27, 2009
This essay from a collection, which examines the security situation in Afghanistan through the largest public opionon survey ever conducted in Afghanistan, asks three questions. What are Afghan perceptions of the security environment? How do these perceptions vary across the country? How do Afghans feel about their security institutions?
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Domestic Trends in the United States, China, and Iran: Implications for U.S. Security Planning — Jan. 22, 2009
The U.S. Navy faces uncertainty about the need to prepare for a high-end future conflict against a powerful, well-armed opponent versus the so-called Long War against rogue nations and terrorist organizations. The answer depends to a large extent on the evolution of U.S. relations with China and Iran and the future of the United States itself.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
Unfolding the Future of the Long War: Implications for the U.S. Military — Jan. 19, 2009
While policymakers, military leaders, and scholars have offered numerous definitions of the "long war" - an epic struggle against adversaries bent on forming a unified Islamic world to supplant western dominance; an extension of the war on terror - no consensus has been reached about this term or its implications for the United States.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
Defeating Hamas Will Not Defeat Iran — Jan. 14, 2009
In the absence of clarity of what Israel hopes to leave behind in Gaza, some observers speculate that the offensive against Hamas has a second target: Iran.... Although Hamas surely benefits from Iranian support, Iran's regional position has little to do with Hamas, writes Dalia Dassa Kaye.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Enhancement by Enlargement: The Proliferation Security Initiative — Dec. 21, 2008
The Proliferation Security Initiative consists of 91 countries seeking to limit the spread of weapons of mass destruction between states or non-state actors that would thereby pose a serious threat to global or regional security. This report assesses the perspectives of the five "hold-out" nations and how to possibly gain their affiliation.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
Is Ahmadinejad in Trouble? — Dec. 17, 2008
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may lose the June 2009 presidential election. And a more pragmatic figure... may assume power. But no one, especially in the United States, should count on a dramatic change in Iran's policies, even if Ahmadinejad loses, writes Alireza Nader.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
The Obama Withdrawal From Iraq: How Fast? — Dec. 16, 2008
The debate over withdrawal of American forces from Iraq has effectively ended: Troops will begin withdrawing in early 2009.... What is not yet entirely clear is what type of residual American force may remain in Iraq, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
Lessons from Six Decades of Research on Deterrence, From Cold War to Long War — Oct. 30, 2008
The United States' 2006 reversal of its 2002 proclamation that deterrence was irrelevant to most future national security strategies is bolstered by research which shows that deterrence will likely play an ongoing role in U.S. efforts to manage a variety of threats, including both near-peer competitors and terrorist organizations.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
Meeting America's Security Challenges Beyond Iraq — Sep. 18, 2008
In a conference cohosted by RAND and the Center for Naval Analyses Corporation, members of the U.S. defense community discussed approaches to meeting the challenges of a demanding future security environment.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
Dangerous Thresholds: Managing Escalation in the 21st Century — Aug. 25, 2008
Historical examples and the analysis of two modified Delphi exercises augment an examination of approaches to escalation management within the demands of today’s security environment and its attendant threats involving not only long-standing nuclear powers, but also insurgent groups and terrorists.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
Testimony on America's Need of a New Grand Strategy, Shift in National Security Policy — Jul. 15, 2008
The unanticipated costs and unpredictable outcomes of the War on Terror necessitate a reevaluation of national security strategy, including a shift away from policies of preemption and democratization and towards nation-building with its consequent need for a rebalancing of political and military power.
Full DocumentRelated Testimony
Both Sides in Debate Over Iran Fail to See Dangers of Pre-Emptive Strike — Jun. 30, 2008
Opponents of war with Iran who take their stand on the grounds that Washington should talk to Tehran first are in danger of finding themselves trapped within a broadening national consensus that could lead to an unwinnable war, writes James Dobbins.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Afghanistan: From Chaos and Corruption to Sustainable Success — May 23, 2008
Since the 2002 U.S.-led attacks in Afghanistan, the country has
struggled to stabilize their government and society. RAND co-hosted a
conference attended by experts in academia, government and NGOs from
over 20 nations to discuss the need for a strategic approach to
Afghanistan's attempts at nation-building.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Good Morning, Syria! – Time to Revisit Our Axis of Evil List? — Apr. 22, 2008
The time may come to start contemplating whether Syria might follow the example of Libya and make its way off the axis of evil, write Cheryl Benard and Ed O'Connell.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Turkey as a U.S. Security Partner — Apr. 10, 2008
Turkey has long been an important ally, but Ankara is increasingly behaving more independently and assertively in ways that must factor into future U.S. planning for the region.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
Real Roles, Missions Debate — Apr. 7, 2008
The United States can and should move beyond a "one size fits all" approach to sizing military forces toward a construct that shapes each service for the types of operations it is actually expected to conduct in the future, write Andrew Hoehn and David Ochmanek.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
Not That Bad a Legacy, After All — Jan. 17, 2008
George W. Bush may leave a positive foreign policy legacy after all. A year ago this would have seemed difficult to credit... [Y]et over this period, Bush has put in place a series of more pragmatic policies from which even a Democratic successor will have a hard time moving away, writes James Dobbins.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Negotiating with Iran — Nov. 7, 2007
In testimony presented before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs, James Dobbins notes that it is time to speak to Iran, unconditionally and comprehensively.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
The Quest for Common Grounds in American and Iranian Public Opinion — Oct. 2, 2007
Although the emergent and ever-deepening conflict between Iran and the U.S. is often framed in the rhetoric of "clash of civilizations," a review of data from the World Values Survey found considerable common ground in the values
of the American and Iranian peoples.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
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