Iraq
Selected Research, Testimony, and Commentary
Improving Outcomes in Iraq Depends on Better Tracking of Violence Against Iraqis — Jun. 16, 2008
A formalized system of data collection will help monitor the extent and type of violence against Iraq civilians and will help improve U.S. counterinsurgency efforts.
Full Document
National Security Research Area
U.S. Military Prone to Operations Not in Accord with COIN Doctrine — Jun. 4, 2008
Similarities between the Vietnam War and current Middle East operations reveal our military is apt to engage in traditional warfare despite the more nuanced tactics called for by counter-insurgency doctrine.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
Unbeknownst to U.S., Islamic Media Shapes the Mid-East — May 23, 2008
A DVD is now available of a conference RAND sponsored to build awareness of popular media initiatives in the Islamic world that are successfully combating extremist agendas.
Full DocumentScience and Technology Research Area
Rethinking Counterinsurgency to Respond to the Evolving Jihadist Insurgency — May 5, 2008
Despite great technological and military advances, British and U.S. counterinsurgency (COIN) operations have been slow to respond and adapt to the rise of the global jihadist insurgency. Operational failures have highlighted the need for the West to rethink and retool its current COIN strategy.
Full DocumentTerrorism and Homeland Security Research Area
Center Assesses Post-Deployment Health-Related Needs of Iraq Veterans — May 11, 2008
The Invisible Wounds of War Study assessed Iraq veterans' health-related needs associated with PTSD, major depression, and traumatic brain injury, examined the treatment capacity of the current health care system, and estimated the costs of providing quality health care to all military members who need it.
Read MoreHealth and Health Care Research Area
Give Them Sabbaticals — May 7, 2008
In academia and, increasingly, corporate America, sabbaticals are a time-honored way to step aside from the daily grind and intellectually reboot. The U.S. Army should embrace something similar, writes Laura Miller.
CommentaryWorkforce and Workplace Research Area
A House of Tribes for Iraq — Apr. 25, 2008
Many western notions of governance may be struggling to take hold in Iraq, but one that deserves a close look is the effort to create what would amount to a unique upper legislative body: The House of Tribes, write Theodore Karasik and Ghassan Schbley.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Iraq Needs an Ownership Surge — Apr. 13, 2008
The military surge in Iraq has created conditions favorable for long-term stability. Now a new approach to economic reconstruction is needed to sustain the hard-fought military gains, write Clare Lockhart and Joseph Konzelmann.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Real Roles, Missions Debate — Apr. 7, 2008
The United States can and should move beyond a "one size fits all" approach to sizing military forces toward a construct that shapes each service for the types of operations it is actually expected to conduct in the future, write Andrew Hoehn and David Ochmanek.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
Iraq's Sunni Time Bomb — Apr. 3, 2008
While the recent fighting in Basra and Baghdad has alerted many Americans to the danger that Shiite-on-Shiite violence poses to our goals in Iraq, it should not divert our focus from another looming threat: that the Sunni tribesmen who have sided with the American-led coalition may turn against us, writes Matthew Sherman.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
Developing U.S. Civilian Personnel Capabilities in State-Building Operations — Mar. 19, 2008
Recent U.S. experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq have shown that engaging in stability and reconstruction operations is a difficult and lengthy process that requires appropriate resources. A framework for improving U.S. civilian personnel and staffing programs for state-building efforts could help.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
International Perspectives on Interagency Reform — Jan. 30, 2008
In testimony presented before the Armed Services Committee, Nora Bensahel discusses the lack of civilian capacity in stability and nation building operations, which has led to an overreliance on military forces.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Make Room for Refugees — Dec. 16, 2007
Today, tens of thousands of Iraqis are in grave danger, targeted because they have worked with the United States. Many have been murdered. Others have fled their homes because of attacks or threats… Many want to come to America, and we should welcome them, writes Olga Oliker.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
U.S. Should Take Advantage of Improved Security in Iraq to Withdraw — Dec. 2, 2007
Because security in Iraq is improving, the United States now has a chance to achieve the best realistic outcome of its unfortunate invasion and occupation: extricating the bulk of U.S. forces without making things worse, writes David C. Gompert.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
Army Resource Gaps Can Be Filled by Building Partner Capabilities — Nov. 6, 2007
Ongoing operations and emerging mission requirements place a heavy burden on U.S. Army resources, resulting in capability gaps that the Army might fill by building appropriate capabilities in allies and partner armies through focused security cooperation.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
The Right Way to Withdraw — Oct. 14, 2007
Had we not invaded Iraq, there are any number of better things we could do to fight terror with the billions the administration plans to spend in Iraq this year. [But w]e're involved too deeply in Iraq and Afghanistan to exit suddenly without fixing our mess, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
A New Tact on Iraq — Aug. 24, 2007
As the sixth anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the United States approaches, al Qaeda appears to be gaining strength. America remains on alert. As Brian Michael Jenkins states in this commentary for the Washington Post, it's reasonable to wonder whether, how and when this conflict will end.
CommentaryTerrorism and Homeland Security Research Area
The Real Analogy for Iraq — Aug. 24, 2007
The conflict raging in Iraq has been compared to many earlier wars, but the best historical comparison has been largely overlooked, write John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt in a commentary appearing in United Press International.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
Are the Sunnis Changing Sides — Aug. 17, 2007
Sunni insurgents are coming to the view that they cannot successfully resist both the U.S. and the Shiite-dominated government at the same time. Increasing numbers of Sunni fighters in Anbar Province are therefore preparing for a tactical accommodation with the less dangerous enemy, the U.S., writes James Dobbins.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Iraqi Refugee Challenge — Jun. 28, 2007
Better relations with [Iraqi refugee children] and the rest of the Arab world's "youth bulge" should be a high priority for American foreign policy and assistance, writes Kristin Cordell.
Commentary
A Comparative Evaluation of United Nations Peacekeeping — Jun. 25, 2007
James Dobbins discusses the performance of the United Nations in peacekeeping missions in testimony presented before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs' Subcommittee on International Organizations, Human Rights, and Oversight.
Full Document
Risks and Riddles — Jun. 01, 2007
The Soviet Union was a puzzle. Al Qaeda is a mystery. Gregory F. Treverton writes about why we need to know the difference.
Commentary
Insights on Joint Urban Operations from Afghanistan and Iraq — May 25, 2007
Today's strategic environment implies an obligation to preserve innocent life when possible and to rebuild that which war destroys. Various tools can help better enable military and civilian alike to meet these objectives by more effectively conducting urban combat and restoration.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
The Counterinsurgency Fight: Think Globally, Lose Locally — Apr. 27, 2007
Confronted with insurgents in some countries and a true global terror network operating in others, some people want to view these opponents as a monolithic force… The belief is also harmful, for four major reasons, write James T. Quinlivan and Bruce R. Nardulli.
Commentary
Who Lost Iraq? — Apr. 16, 2007
As Iraqi and American public opinion pushes the United States inexorably toward the exit, a debate over who lost Iraq is already gaining momentum. There is no shortage of culprits, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
The Taliban Threat is Not Just America's Burden — Apr. 12, 2007
When President George W. Bush meets European Union leaders for the annual US-EU summit in Washington on April 30, Afghanistan will be high on the agenda. This offers the EU the chance to move beyond rhetoric and take action to show it can be a credible force in the world, writes Robert Hunter.
Commentary
Iraqi Security Forces: Defining Challenges and Assessing Progress — Mar. 28, 2007
In testimony presented to House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, Olga Oliker discussed the Iraqi security forces, their status and development to date, and what we might want to know in the future to better assess progress.
Testimony
Iran's Covert War in Iraq — Mar. 16, 2007
There are four critical differences between the case against Iran today and the WMD estimates involving Iraq in 2003. All these differences combine to build an overwhelming case for the accuracy of the reports about Iranian involvement in Iraq, writes Rick Brennan.
Commentary
My Enemy's Enemy — Feb. 27, 2007
Somehow, the United States has maneuvered itself into a position where most Shiite and most Sunni, most Arabs and most Persians alike seem to regard America as their enemy, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
Iraq's Jobs-for-Peace Mirage — Feb. 11, 2007
As the wisdom of President Bush's proposed “surge” of US troops is debated across the US and around the world, another question about the US President's new policy to avert all-out civil war there is coming to the fore. Can using US funding to reopen Iraqi state-owned enterprises get young men to abandon the insurgency and sectarian militias?, writes Keith Crane.
Commentary
America's Long Wars — Feb. 01, 2007
It is clear that U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, along with his leadership team in the Pentagon, will devote the preponderance of their time contending with the "long war" against radical Islam... But the "long war" is not so much a traditional conflict with discrete battles composing continuous, identifiable "campaigns. It is a long-term strategic challenge that will demand all elements of U.S. statecraft, write Andrew R. Hoehn and David A. Shlapak.
Commentary
Put Iraqi Insurgents Out of Business — Jan. 29, 2007
The militias and insurgent groups that have turned Iraq into a killing field can't function without money. So as President Bush pursues a new war strategy, he should make sharply reducing the flow of money to them a top priority. If successful, this effort could give Iraq's government a fighting chance to curb the violence, writes Keith Crane.
Commentary
No Need to Expand U.S. Army — Jan. 26, 2007
President George W. Bush and Defense Secretary Robert Gates have announced plans to increase the size of the U.S. Army and Marines by 93,000, at a cost of $10 billion a year. At first blush, this seems to make sense. After all, it is now generally agreed that the United States has too few ground forces to meet its needs in Iraq without sapping its ability to defend American interests everywhere else. But on closer examination, the case for expanding the Army and Marines has not yet been made, writes David C. Gompert.
Commentary
Coordination Could Breed Control in Iraq — Jan. 24, 2007
[T]oo often, the different branches of the U.S. military and the U.S. government in Iraq have failed to effectively coordinate their activities with each other and with their Iraqi counterparts, writes Austin Long.
Commentary
A Bad Plan for the Middle East — Jan. 17, 2007
President George W. Bush's most recent address to the American people on Iraq may be the scariest presidential message since Ronald Reagan announced that he had launched a nuclear strike against the Soviet Union. Reagan was just kidding. Bush is not, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
U.S. Doesn't Need the Draft — Dec. 11, 2006
I've examined the issue of the draft closely as director of selective service in the Carter administration, under secretary of defense for personnel and readiness in the Clinton administration, and in researching my new RAND Corp. book... All the evidence shows that the draft is not needed by the nation and not wanted by the majority of Americans, writes Bernard Rostker.
Commentary
No Law and No Order — Dec. 01, 2006
Olga Oliker demonstrates that the Iraqi army and police are far less prepared than numbers and coalition reports suggest.
Commentary
Grand Strategy for the Middle East — Nov. 19, 2006
Debate in the United States about the war in Iraq is seemingly about strategy but is really about tactics, as America struggles to control the damage without changing its basic objectives and policies in the Middle East. A strategic reassessment is needed to find a way to deal not just with Iraq, but with the other interrelated problems in the region, writes Robert E. Hunter.
Commentary
Gates's Opportunity at Defense — Nov. 17, 2006
Robert Gates, nominated by President Bush to succeed Donald Rumsfeld as secretary of defense, will not have much time in office but he will have opportunity. Gates comes to the job without much baggage, either of ideology or policy. He didn't campaign for the job — indeed, he turned down the position of director of national intelligence when it was offered — so he has some independence. And he comes to office when desperation might make for a serious debate about policy toward Iraq, writes Gregory F. Treverton.
Commentary
Crafting Terror Strategy — Oct. 18, 2006
A successful strategy in the war on terror demands convincing Muslims around the world that their interests are congruent with U.S. interests and not with those of the terrorists. Actions that conflict with this objective, whatever their short-term tactical value, should be avoided, write David Ochmanek and Lowell Schwartz.
Commentary
Terror War Uncertainties — Oct. 06, 2006
The only certainty over the next five years is that events now unpredictable will profoundly affect the trajectory of the Global War on Terror.
Nonetheless, we can attempt to look beyond the headlines and discern some long-range trends that can give us some idea about what the state of this unconventional war will be on Sept. 11, 2011, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
What Went Wrong in Iraq? — Sep. 28, 2006
American military and diplomatic leaders have swung back and forth between various strategies to confront the hostile forces arrayed against them in Iraq. But despite recent U.S. initiatives, the fighting there only continues to intensify, particularly in Baghdad, writes Ed O'Connell.
Commentary
State of Terrorism Address: What Would Osama Bin Laden Say to Jihadists Five Years Later? — Sep. 11, 2006
Osama Bin Laden has issued many audio- and videotapes to spread his message. But what might he tell his most loyal followers about the state of the global war against the infidels five years after 9/11?, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
Safer, But Not Safe — Sep. 11, 2006
Five years after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the global jihadist enterprise continues to pose the most immediate threat to U.S. national security. Its destruction must remain America's primary objective, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
U.S. Mideast Setbacks — Sep. 01, 2006
The United States has suffered its second major setback in the Middle East—both at least partly self-inflicted and party due to faulty intelligence. The first was the invasion of Iraq and its aftermath. The second was failing to judge the course of the war in Lebanon and, once it was clear that the most advanced technology could be offset by the some of the most primitive—asymmetrical, guerrilla warfare—failing to stop the war before death and destruction rained down on Lebanon and Israel for weeks, writes Robert Hunter.
Commentary
Mideast Peace: Bush Has a Job to Do — Aug. 30, 2006
The Arab-Israeli conflict has bedeviled every U.S. president for more than a half-century. President George W. Bush now has an opportunity to bring it to an end. This is in the interests of Israel, the Palestinians, and everyone in the Middle East who prefers peace to war. From the perspective of the United States, it has become a strategic imperative, writes Robert Hunter.
Commentary
Lebanon's Sectarian Aftershocks — Aug. 08, 2006
In the volatile Middle East, America's efforts to build friendships have often created new enemies. Many of the divided religious and ethnic factions living in the region view any U.S. move to support one group as a hostile act toward that group's opponents, write Fred Wehrey and Dalia Dassa Kaye.
Commentary
Protecting U.S. Interests In the Middle East — July 19, 2006
With fighting raging in Gaza, Israel, Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan, American interests are under immediate threat across much of the greater Middle East. Each day requires U.S. officials to make new tactical decisions to deal with rapidly changing developments, writes Robert E. Hunter.
Commentary
Islam and the West: Searching for Common Ground: The Terrorist Threat and the Counter-Terrorism Effort — Jul. 18, 2006
In testimony presented to the Committee on Foreign Relations, Bruce Hoffman addresses the terrorist threat and the counter-terrorism effort, focusing on how the U.S. can ensure that its assessments and analyses of the threat are based on sound, empirical judgment and that its counterterrorism policy is sufficiently comprehensive, well crafted and effectively directed.
Testimony
U.S. Options for Creating Transitional Security Forces — Jun. 28, 2006
In Iraq and elsewhere, the U.S. finds itself in need of a law enforcement capability for stability operations. How should such a force be created and what specific capabilities should it embody? Five major options, including cilivian and military, are explored.
Full Document
The Middle East's Changing Strategic Environment — Jun. 15, 2006
A conference held jointly by the Geneva Centre for Security Policy and the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy examined the changing strategic environment of the Middle East, with emphasis on the situation in Iraq; Iran's nuclear program; and strategies for countering Islamic terrorism.
Full Document
Zarqawi Death Won't End War — Jun. 10, 2006
While the U.S. killing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has removed the leading terrorist from Iraq, it has not removed terrorism from the country. "We can expect the terrorists and insurgents to carry on without him," President George W. Bush said, commenting on Zarqawi's death in an American bombing attack June 7. The president is right on this point, writes Farhana Ali.
Commentary
How Iraq's Neighbours Can Steer It Away From Destruction — Jun. 07, 2006
It is time to hold a peace conference on Iraq. Only a regional solution can end the continued fighting that threatens to spill over into neighbouring states, writes David Aaron.
Commentary
Iraq and Beyond — Spring 2006
The Spring 2006 Issue of RAND Review focuses on Iraq, outlining numerous lessons learned but not yet fully applied. Topics include sustaining U.S. forces, promoting reenlistments, rebuilding Iraqi security institutions, and more.
Full Document
Averting War with Iran — May 2, 2006
As the Bush administration wrestles with how to respond to Iran's latest challenge, it would do well to reflect on the lessons of its military invasion in Iraq. The toppling of Saddam Hussein was supposed to lead to a democratic Iraq that would ignite the fires of democracy throughout the Greater Middle East. Instead, regime change in Iraq has sparked regional turmoil and set off a chain reaction of unintended consequences, write F. Stephen Larrabee and Peter A. Wilson.
Commentary
Stability in Iraq Won't Come Without Disbanding Militias — May 2, 2006
While the formation of a new Iraqi government is one necessary condition to avert a civil war there, another is for the US and Iraqi governments to get control of the Shiite militias that American forces have been reluctant to fight, writes David C. Gompert.
Commentary
Nation-Building Efforts Hampered By Failures to Address Health Problems — Apr. 19, 2006
The United States missed opportunities to help win the support of the public in Iraq and Afghanistan by failing to make health a bigger focus of reconstruction efforts after U.S.-led invasions of the nations.
Full DocumentNews Release
Today's Wars Are Less About Ideas Than Extreme Tribalism — Mar. 27, 2006
Western strategists and policymakers should stop talking about a clash of civilizations and focus on the real problem: extreme tribalism. Recent events - riots in many nations protesting cartoons of the prophet Muhammad, Sunni-Shiite warring in Iraq, the Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan - confirm that the West is not in a clash with Islam. Instead, Islam, which is a civilizing force, has fallen under the sway of Islamists who are a tribalizing force, writes David Ronfeldt.
Commentary
The Defiant War — Mar. 19, 2006
Bad choices leave bad choices. The war against Saddam Hussein may have been a strategic mistake from the beginning, but walking away now is not the same, either practically or morally, as having avoided the strategic blunder of war in the first place, writes Gregory F. Treverton.
Commentary
The Threat of Oil Jihad — Mar. 3, 2006
The Feb. 24 unsuccessful terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia on the world's largest oil processing facility was intended to bring jihad to the wallets of consumers around the world, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
Combating Al Qaeda and the Militant Islamic Threat — Feb. 16, 2006
[T]he attention of the U.S. military and intelligence community is directed almost uniformly towards hunting down militant leaders or protecting U.S. forces—not toward understanding the enemy we now face. This is a monumental failing not only because decapitation strategies have rarely worked in countering mass mobilization terrorist or insurgent campaigns, but also because al Qaeda's ability to continue this struggle is ineluctably predicated on its capacity to attract new recruits and replenish its resources.
Testimony
Amateur Hour in Iraq — Feb. 10, 2006
The American occupation of Iraq was marked by what can only be called heroic amateurism. Although the intervention was in fact the sixth American led nation building operation in little more than a decade, the Bush administration failed to apply most of the lessons learned so painfully in Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Kosovo and Afghanistan, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
Just Starting: The War Against Terror — Jan. 25, 2006
The central message of Osama bin Laden's latest audiotape heard 'round the world is that al-Qaida lives, he is in command, the jihadists are winning and victory is inevitable — the exact opposite of the message President George W. Bush delivers in speeches on the war on terrorism, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
Rebuilding Security Forces and Institutions in Iraq — Jan. 4, 2006
The Coalition Provisional Authority's record at rebuilding Iraqi security forces and building security sector institutions has been mixed, with too much emphasis on meeting short-term Iraqi security needs at the expense of long-term institution-building.
Full DocumentResearch Brief
Force Requirements in Stability Operations — Oct. 27, 2006
In this 1995 article, James Quinlivan investigates the numbers required for stability operations, both for entire countries and individual cities, and explores the implications of those numbers for deployment, rotation, readiness, and personnel retention.
Reprint
Iraq Needs Unity — Dec. 30, 2005
High voter turnout in the recent Iraqi elections demonstrates that democracy can mobilize the Iraqi people. What remains to be seen is whether democracy will also unite them, or drive them apart. Election returns are not encouraging on this score, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
War, Propaganda and Public Opinion — Dec. 18, 2005
Throughout America's history, the nation's citizens have been uncomfortable with the idea of government rather than a free press reporting on the news, both in the United States and abroad. Critics have labeled U.S. government attempts to bring news to people in other nations as "propaganda" intended to sway popular opinion, sometimes using false information. Supporters prefer to call such efforts "information campaigns" intended to educate the public with facts, writes Lowell Schwartz.
Commentary
The Bomber Behind the Veil — Dec. 13, 2005
Two recent attacks by female suicide bombers have put the world on notice that Muslim women are playing an increasingly important role in this form of terrorism. Understanding what motivates such women is a vital first step in seeking ways to combat this deadly trend, writes Farhana Ali.
Commentary
We Advance Our Cause — Dec. 11, 2005
The debate over the future of the U.S. troop presence in Iraq is heavy on accusations of deceit and cowardice and light on analysis. The American public needs an objective answer to the question: "How will withdrawing troops affect U.S. security interests?" writes David C. Gompert.
Commentary
NATO's Role in Nation-building — Dec. 8, 2005
Nation-building has been a growth industry since the end of the Cold War. The United Nations, NATO, the United States and more recently the European Union have all become engaged in missions that employ armed force in post-conflict environments with the objective of supporting a political transformation, that is to say democratisation. Not every recent military expedition fits this description, but nation-building, peace-building or stabilisation operations, depending on one's preferred terminology, have become the dominant paradigm for the use of armed force in the post-Cold War world, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
Little to Argue About on Iraq — Dec. 7, 2005
The American debate over Iraq has fallen into considerable confusion. Many Democrats are urging a timetable for American withdrawal. President Bush rejects any suggestion that the United States should "cut and run," writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
Shareholders Don't Shoot Each Other — Nov. 23, 2005
Privatizing Iraq's oil assets, and vesting all citizens with shares, can provide incentive for every Iraqi — including Sunnis, the insurgency's core — to view commerce as a better path than violence. Ownership would provide 28 million citizens with a prospective increase in per-capita income of about $5,800, substantially raising their present income. This is unlikely to persuade hard-core terrorists to change course. But turning all Iraqis into stockholders of the nation's oil wealth can win over the support of the bulk of the Sunni population that now backs the insurgency through provision of foot soldiers, intelligence, cover, safe houses or passive acceptance, writes Charles Wolf, Jr.
Commentary
Misjudging The Jihad: Briefing Osama on All the War's Wins and Losses — Nov. 13, 2005
We see the televised briefings in Washington, but what about the briefings on the other side of on the campaign against terror, perhaps in the mountains of Pakistan? An aide briefing Osama bin Laden on the al Qaeda balance sheet today would have to admit to plenty of bad news, write Brian Michael Jenkins and Gregory F. Treverton.
Commentary
Bush Needs Allies Near Iraq, However Unsavoury — Nov. 1, 2005
To stabilise Bosnia, the Clinton administration had to deal with Slobodan Milosevic and Franjo Tudjman, the two men personally responsible for the genocide Washington was trying to stop. To put together a successor regime to the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Bush administration had to deal with the regional states that had been tearing that country apart for 20 years, including Russia, Pakistan, India and Iran. The time has come for a similarly inclusive effort on Iraq, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
Terror in Historical Context — Oct. 28, 2005
President George W. Bush asserts that fighting in Iraq is a necessary correction to the responses by the Carter, Reagan, and Clinton administrations to earlier terrorist challenges. "To leave Iraq now," the president argues, "would be to repeat the costly mistakes of the past that led to the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 … the terrorists concluded that we lacked the courage and character to defend ourselves, and so they attacked us." However, this "mistakes of the past" thesis ignores the historical context and differing circumstances of previous decisions, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
The Logic of Suicide Terrorism — Oct. 20, 2005
Suicide bombings have become an increasingly popular tool for terrorists, as witnessed in Iraq. RAND terrorism expert Bruce Hoffman discusses the logic behind suicide terrorism, how other countries that have had sustained, intense, and numerous attacks have dealt with it, and the lessons they learned in the process.
CommentaryTerrorism and Homeland Security Research Area
Four Years After 9/11, War on Terror Slogs On — Sep. 11, 2005
Four years after 9/11, where are we in the global war on terror? The question itself reflects our typically American desire to keep score, measure progress. Progress in World War II provided visible mileposts – the invasion of North Africa, the march through Italy, the return to the Philippines, the landing at Normandy, the liberation of Paris, the fall of Berlin, VE day, VJ day – a bloodier contest but we knew where we were going, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
Exiting Iraq — Aug. 29, 2005
During a visit to Iraq in April, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said: "We don't really have an exit strategy. We have a victory strategy. We are here for a mission to set the country on the path of democracy, freedom and representative government." The successful Iraqi election last January was supposed to demonstrate that Iraq is on the correct path. Now the adoption of a constitution and the election of a post-transition government are supposed to move Iraq further on the path. But where does the path lead afterwards?, write Lowell H. Schwartz and Jeff Michaels.
Commentary
Iraq's Constitution: From Dayton to Baghdad — Aug. 27, 2005
The last time American diplomats locked a group of prospective founding fathers in a room with orders not to come out until they had a constitution was a decade ago, in Dayton, Ohio. The founding fathers in question represented Bosnia's Muslim, Roman Catholic and Orthodox Christian communities. In Baghdad today, as in Dayton 10 years ago, observers have established three major criteria for success, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
In Iraq's Prisons, Try a Little Tenderness — Aug. 25, 2005
When Americans talk about "the lessons of Vietnam," they usually mean failed policies and programs that shouldn't be repeated. But there were some successes in the Vietnam War, including an initiative to win the allegiance of captured and defecting Vietcong and North Vietnamese fighters by treating them generously and reshaping their attitudes. This idea — that harsh treatment of prisoners can be less effective than showing compassion — now deserves a test in Ira, write Scott Gerwehr and Nina Hachigian.
Commentary
Timing is Everything — Aug. 13, 2005
The bombings just over a month ago in London call to mind those in Madrid last year, and not just because they were both attacks on public transit. Both may have been intended to achieve goals that are important to achieving the international jihadist movement's strategy for re-establishing an authentic Sunni Caliphate that includes all lands once subject to the Caliph, writes Terrence K. Kelly.
Commentary
Gauging Counterinsurgency — Aug. 09, 2005
Many Americans wonder why the world's most powerful military force, which toppled Saddam Hussein quickly and without suffering heavy casualties, is unable to stop insurgents from staging an average of 70 attacks a day across Iraq, writes Nora Bensahel.
Commentary
A Future Beyond a Funeral — Aug. 05, 2005
The West must do a better job of bringing opportunity and dignity to these Muslim youths. If we can't, the terrorists will continue to prey upon such vulnerable young people, convincing them that the path to glory and dignity lies along the road of suicide bombings and explosive devices. It seems obvious that the success of the terrorist movement rests on the vulnerability of youth worldwide. In military parlance, halting this trend would be considered the deep fight, writes Ed O'Connell.
Commentary
Accelerating Economic Progress in Iraq — July 20, 2005
Because the Iraqi government remains highly centralized and because there is still no constitutional basis for devolving authority, technical assistance needs to be concentrated on making the core ministries of the central government function more efficiently, not on channeling assistance through provincial and municipal government institutions that lack the constitutional authority to make and control expenditure decisions, according to Keith Crane,
testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Congressional Testimony
The Lessons of London — Jul. 17, 2005
[W]hile we have damaged the jihadists' network, we have not dented their determination. Al-Qaeda today is an ideology that transcends the original organization to inspire many little al-Qaedas. Comprising old veterans and new volunteers, the jihadists communicate on a thousand more Web sites, train at secret locations, continue to plan and prepare attacks, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
Lessons to Be Learned from Conflicts in Bosnia, Kosovo and Afghanistan — Jun. 28, 2005
Iraq's elections gave Shia and Kurdish leaders democratic legitimacy, but they further marginalized Sunnis. As a result, the still rising tide of violence in Iraq has taken on an increasingly sectarian character. The Shia and Kurdish communities can prevail in this conflict as long as they stick together. Between them, they represent three-quarters of Iraq's population. They also have the support of both the United States and Iran, but the Sunni minority is also receiving support from neighboring Sunni societies, like Saudi Arabia and Syria. This sort of externally sponsored competition is a formula for long, bloody civil war, says James Dobbins.
Commentary
Strategy: Political Warfare Neglected — Jun. 26, 2005
In Yemen three years ago, Islamic scholars challenged a group of defiant al-Qaeda prisoners to a theological debate. “If you convince us that your ideas are justified by the Koran, then we will join you in the struggle,” the scholars told the terrorists. “But if we succeed in convincing you of our ideas, then you must agree to renounce violence.” The scholars won the debate, the prisoners renounced violence, were released and were given help to find jobs. Some have since offered advice to Yemeni security services – a tip from one led to the death of al-Qaeda's top leader in the country, writes Brian Michael Jenkins
Commentary
Revitalizing U.S.-Turkey Relations — June 8, 2005
In a Washington Times commentary, Frank Carlucci and F. Stephen Larrabee discuss recent developments towards re-establishing a strong relationship between the U.S. and Turkey, and key points of focus for a Turkish-American partnership, including Iraq, broader Middle East democratization, and Iran.
Commentary at washingtontimes.com
Can the Iraq Beast Be Tamed? — May 18, 2005
Two years after conquering Iraq, America now finds itself locked in a struggle with a fierce insurgency that is using suicide bombers, improvised explosive devices, beheadings, ambushes, kidnappings, and assassinations to kill Iraqis, Americans, and coalition forces, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
Iraq: Democracy vs. Power Sharing — May 7, 2005
Three recent and well-studied American initiatives all had the potential to alter the equation in Iraq when they were introduced, but in unpredictable ways: the Iraqi elections, President George W. Bush's commitment to spreading democracy and the administration's handing over of more responsibility to Iraqis. In fact, these are all related, and with the fog lifting from their aftermath, it is increasingly possible to begin to predict their cumulative effects, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
Kidnappings in Iraq Strategically Effective — Apr. 29, 2005
Kidnapping for ransom or for political ends has become a key component of Iraq's resistance movement. But while terrorist kidnappers have long been able to attract publicity, create crises and occasionally obtain political concessions, insurgents in Iraq are the first in the annals of terrorism to transform kidnapping into a strategic weapon, write Brian Michael Jenkins, Meg Williams, and Ed Williams.
Commentary
Contrary to Some Journalistic Snap Judgments, the Iraqi Elections Were Not a Victory for a Theocracy Controlled by Iran — Feb. 20, 2005
The final results of the Jan. 30 Iraqi elections were certified Thursday and contained no surprises — the Shiite slate of parties won a large plurality of the votes, with the Kurds making a strong showing, writes Terrence K. Kelly.
Commentary
Iraq: Not Terrorist Central
— Jan. 30, 2005
By fighting terrorists in Iraq, does America reduce the likelihood it will have to fight them in the United States? It is an appealing idea to a nation that continues to worry about another 9/11, but on careful analysis the argument does not stand up, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
Upcoming Iraqi Elections Could Make Ethnic Strife There Even Worse
— Jan. 26, 2005
The Iraqi elections could consolidate support among Sunnis for the insurgency, increase violence and channel the fighting that results along ethnic and religious lines. That's because Iraq's present electoral system will award representation to each province based not on its population but on the number of voters who actually reach the polls. So Baghdad and the Sunni triangle will be at a serious disadvantage. Violence there is extraordinarily high and voter participation is likely to be correspondingly low, says James Dobbins.
Commentary
Our Way or the Highway
— Jan. 15, 2005
By now, just about everyone has heard U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's response to a soldier's question about the need for more armored vehicles to protect U.S. troops from insurgent attacks along Iraq's dangerous highways. But there is a more fundamental question: Why are the highway attacks still succeeding?, writes James Quinlivan.
Commentary
Social Studies: 21st Century Tribes
— Dec. 12, 2004
In Afghanistan and Iraq, the United States is fighting virulent tribalism as much as Islamic fundamentalism. Salafi and Wahhabi teachings calling for jihad against infidels, fatwas from clerics justifying the murder of noncombatants and ultimatums from Sunni insurgents who behead captives all are expressions of extreme tribalism more than Islam,
writes David Ronfeldt.
Commentary
'Oil for Food' Worked
— Dec. 10, 2004
American outrage over the diversion of U.N.-supervised Iraqi oil-for-food money seems to miss three salient points. First, no American funds were stolen. Second, no U.N. funds were stolen. Third, the oil-for-food program achieved its two objectives: providing food to the Iraqi people and preventing Saddam Hussein from rebuilding his military threat to the region — and in particular from reconstituting his programs for weapons of mass destruction,
writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
Rereading the Duelfer Report — Nov. 15, 2004
While news that 380 tons of conventional explosives are missing from a former Iraqi military installation has made headlines, less attention is being paid to evidence that Iraqi scientists are using their skills to try to produce chemical and biological weapons for Iraqi insurgents. Even more worrisome is the possibility that these scientists could provide international terrorist groups operating in Iraq with chemical, biological or even nuclear weapons capabilities, write David E. Mosher and John V. Parachini.
Commentary
Lessons from the Past for Iraq's Future
— Jul. 23, 2004
Iraq's new government and its American and coalition allies are faced with the
challenge of simultaneously fighting the insurgency raging across the country on
both the military and political levels. They can get good advice on how to do this by
studying the views of Sir Gerald Templer, the architect of Britain's victory in the
Malayan insurgency during the 1950s, writes Bruce Hoffman.
Commentary
Countering Radical Islam Through Understanding
— Mar. 18, 2004
The U.S. can counter the destabilizing forces of radical Islam by better understanding the spectrum of Muslim views—views that separate allies from adversaries.
Full Document
News Release
Fighting Insurgency in Iraq
With Vietnam, El Salvador—and now Iraq—the U.S. has been ineffective in countering insurgencies. In light of this history, this report details where the U.S. has failed in Iraq and what challenges lie ahead.
Full Document (June 18, 2004)
Securing the Peace Will Require Finesse
The U.S. has made important course corrections in its approach to Iraq. The changes are also being accompanied by a shift in American military strategy toward a less prominent and less visible role for American and coalition forces on the streets of Iraq's major cities. American and Iraqi leaders will need to look beyond peace enforcement operations of the last decade and turn to British and American experiences of the past half-century in places like Malaysia, Kenya, Vietnam and Northern Ireland for inspiration, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary (June 27, 2004)
Future Trends in the Middle East
This report examines key trends in Middle East—energy security, weapons of mass destruction, economic reform, and leadership change—and their implications for the U.S.
Full Document Research Brief (June 2, 2004)
Why We Didn't Get the Picture
U.S. intelligence analysts have been taking a lot of criticism lately, but when all the investigations are completed, we will discover that this wasn't an intelligence analysis failure? Perhaps it is intelligence collection failure, combined with a misunderstanding about how intelligence really works, writes Bruce Berkowitz.
Commentary (February 1, 2004)
Middle East in the Shadow of Afghanistan and Iraq
Summarizes discussion at the May 2003 Geneva Centre for Security conference: impact of Iraq on the war on terrorism; the future of Iran and Iraq, the war on Syria, the Levant, Turkey, Jordan, and the Arabian peninsula; and the effect of the war on transatlantic ties.
Full Document (2003)
America's Role in Nation-Building: From Germany to Iraq
Examines lessons from seven case studies -- Germany, Japan, Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Kosovo, and Afghanistan -- then applies these to the Iraq case. The results suggest that nation-building will be difficult but possible for the U.S.
Full Document (2003)
Congressional Testimony: Next Steps in Iraq and Beyond
Testimony presented before the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate by writes James Dobbins .
Full Document (September 23, 2003)
Confronting Iraq
A RAND report from 2000 -- Confronting Iraq: U.S. Policy and the Use of Force Since the Gulf War -- analyzes attempts to coerce Iraq since Desert Storm. It examines military strikes and other pressure, and discusses constraints by domestic politics and international alliances.
Full Document (2000)
Persian Gulf Security: Improving Allied Military Contributions
Lays out a practical and realistic blueprint for securing improved European force contributions to Persian Gulf security that appears well within the allies' political, financial, and military means.
Full Document (2001)
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