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Social Issues in Islamic Countries

Selected Research, Commentary and Congressional Testimony

Our Man in Kabul — Nov. 5, 2009

Afghan President Hamid Karzai at press conference in presidential palace, photo courtesy of defenseimagery.mil/Tech. Sgt. J. Morrison

Now that Karzai has been declared the election's winner, the breach with Abdullah—the man most responsible for his original rise to power—could have very dangerous consequences. The last thing Karzai, NATO, and the United States can afford is the emergence of a renewed northern alliance, writes James Dobbins.

Karzai's Second Term a Test for International Community — Nov. 2, 2009

Afghan Members of Parliament, photo courtesy of http://www.flickr.com/photos/webethere/2537821065/

Afghan President Hamid Karzai begins his second term with his country on the brink of chaos. To establish control, two major elements of reform are necessary, writes Terrence Kelly.

Fighting Terror the Cold War Way — Oct. 14, 2009

Arabic books, photo courtesy of flickr/Hishaam Siddiqi

With much talk about how to "win hearts and minds" in the Muslim world, it's surprising that few are looking back to a global contest of ideas that the U.S. and its allies categorically won: the Cold War, write Todd C. Helmus and Dalia Dassa Kaye.

Living Conditions in Anbar Province in June 2008 — Sep. 30, 2009

Iraqi girl amid crowd waiting to begin school, photo courtesy of defenseimagery.mil/Mowerey

Effective counterinsurgency is dependent on understanding the local population. A survey of those living in Iraq's Anbar Province (once one of the country's most violent areas), reveals both the many improvements that have occurred, as well as the extent to which these Iraqis have suffered from the effects of war.

Barriers to the Broad Dissemination of Creative Works in the Arab World — Sep. 22, 2009

Arab woman reads at a bookstore

Many analysts have examined the media that violent extremists use to communicate their core messages. Far less research, however, has been devoted to the growing body of creative works produced by Arab authors and artists that counter the intellectual and ideological underpinnings of violent extremism.

U.S. Handling of Mujahedin-E-Khalq Since U.S. Invasion of Iraq Is Examined — Aug. 4, 2009

Iraqi and MeK flags

During the Iraq war, Coalition forces first classified the MeK, an Iranian militant group advocating the overthrow of their government, as enemy combatants operating in Iraq. Following a ceasefire agreement, the U.S. controversially switched their status to civilian. This decision and what should now be done with MeK members is reviewed.

Timeline to Withdraw U.S. Troops from Iraq Is Feasible, but Combat Forces Are Needed for Elections — Jul. 28, 2009

U.S. soldier salutes Iraqi flag

The U.S. military can meet President Obama's timeline - one of three alternatives that are compared - for the drawdown of troops from Iraq, but sufficient combat force must remain to ensure a peaceful January 2010 election. Slower drawdowns are recommended for the regions most at risk of post-withdrawal conflict.

In the Graveyard of Empires: America's War in Afghanistan — Jul. 14, 2009

abandoned Russian tank in Afghanistan, photo courtesy of USAF/Sturkol

Longtime Afghanistan expert Seth G. Jones harnesses important new historical research, thousands of declassified government documents, and interviews with prominent figures to reveal how the siphoning of resources to Iraq left Afghanistan vulnerable to a "war of a thousand cuts." He argues for a radically new approach.

Iran's Real Winners: The Revolutionary Guards — Jun. 22, 2009

hands holding small free iran sign, photo courtesy of flickr/Steve Rhodes

Despite the huge protests on the streets of Tehran, Iranian President Ahmadinejad has once again triumphed. A relative newcomer to Iranian politics, his re-election and subsequent crackdown on the demonstrators suggest that the Iranian political system is moving in a new and potentially dangerous direction, writes Alireza Nader.

Lebanon Vote Tilts to the West — Jun. 10, 2009

Lebanese voter dips thumb in ink bottle, photo courtesy of flickr/Sana Tawlieh

The result of the June 7 parliamentary elections in Lebanon is a boon for the U.S., but it would be well-advised to play for the long term in Lebanon with a pragmatic policy that deals with the reality of Hezbollah's political power while continuing to strengthen moderate forces and national institutions, write Aram Nerguizian and Ghassan Schbley.

Living with the Outcome: Elections in Lebanon — Jun. 5, 2009

banners, people, flags at 2009 Lebanese parliamentary elections, photo courtesy of flickr/Sana T

Lebanon is scheduled to hold elections June 7, and the pro-Western political alliance favored by the United States may lose. If it does, the Obama Administration should not consider the result a triumph for Hezbollah, but a challenge, write Aram Nerguizian and Ghassan Schbley.

Dangerous But Not Omnipotent: Exploring the Reach and Limitations of Iranian Power in the Middle East — May 19, 2009

cover of MG-781

Iran's rise as a regional power presents a key foreign policy and security challenge to the United States, but its reach may be more limited than Western conventional wisdom suggests. U.S. strategy should work to exploit existing barriers to Iran's harmful activities, while simultaneously seeking areas of engagement.

The U.S. and India Need to Work Together to Prepare for an Increasingly Chaotic Pakistan — May 12, 2009

pictures from the flag off ceremony at the india pakistan border at sunset, wagah, near amritsar, 2000, photo courtesy of flickr/radicaleye

For every good reason, the Obama Administration is devoting enormous thought to Pakistan. In my judgment, the evolving situation in Pakistan is potentially the most dangerous international situation since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, writes Robert D. Blackwill.

Occupying Iraq: A History of the Coalition Provisional Authority and How It Failed to Secure Iraq — May 11, 2009

an Iraqi statue of Saddam Hussein is pulled from its pedestal

The American engagement in Iraq has been looked at from many perspectives, from planning to invasion and the long ensuing occupation. The activities of the Coalition Provisional Authority and its administrator, L. Paul Bremer, are recounted in this study through interviews with policymakers, former officials' memoirs, journalists' accounts, and the nearly 100,000 never-before-released CPA documents.

South Asia's Taliban Problem: Multiple Threats From Multiple Groups — Apr. 14, 2009

an Iraqi man, photo courtesy of U.S. Army/Herrera

For India, the development of a conducive environment on its western flank for groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad has already resulted in sophisticated terrorist attacks on Indian soil. While there is good reason for India and its neighbors to be concerned, there is considerable misunderstanding of the threat, writes Seth Jones.

Power to the People: Rebooting Conventional Diplomacy — Feb. 27, 2009

teen boy gives peace sign

The story of how President Obama engineered a grass-roots campaign, mobilizing formerly disengaged U.S. citizens with new media and new technologies, has reached almost mythological proportions. Less well known is the story of similar grass-roots efforts emerging in local communities around the world, write Cherl Benard and Edward O'Connell.

Going the Distance — Feb. 15, 2009

soldiers in Afghanistan, photo courtesy of U.S. Army/Abney

Afghanistan has a reputation as a graveyard of empires, based as much on lore as on reality.... Yes, the situation is serious, but it's far from doomed. We can still turn things around if we strive for a better understanding of the Afghan insurgency and work to exploit its many weaknesses, writes Seth G. Jones.

United States, East Africa Allies Must Overcome Radical Islam to Reshape the Region' Security — Feb. 4, 2009

cover of MG-782

While al Qaeda is the primary terrorist/extremist threat in East Africa, the region suffers more broadly from a danger of radical Islamist groups and organizations that the United States and its allies must address to reshape the region's security environment.

Maritime Piracy: Reasons, Dangers and Solutions — Feb. 4, 2009

pirates off Somali shore, photo courtesy of U.S. Navy/Zalasky

In testimony presented before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation, Peter Chalk testifies on the scope and contributing factors driving the rash of recent pirate attacks and the principal dangers associated with this particular manifestation of transnational crime.

Defeating Hamas Will Not Defeat Iran — Jan. 14, 2009

Hamas supporters, photo courtesy of Flickr/eremi

In the absence of clarity of what Israel hopes to leave behind in Gaza, some observers speculate that the offensive against Hamas has a second target: Iran.... Although Hamas surely benefits from Iranian support, Iran's regional position has little to do with Hamas, writes Dalia Dassa Kaye.

In Iraq, a Different Kind of Drama Stages a Message of Reconciliation — Dec. 18, 2008

Ghada Hussein Al-Almy directing street theatre troupe in Iraq

While female suicide bombers in Iraq have been getting all the headlines, a very different cadre of women has emerged on the scene with the opposite goal of forging peace and paving over the sectarian differences. Above all, these activists want to take back the streets and neighborhoods of their country, write Edward O'Connell and Cheryl Benard.

Is Ahmadinejad in Trouble? — Dec. 17, 2008

Iran's President Ahmadinejad

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may lose the June 2009 presidential election. And a more pragmatic figure... may assume power. But no one, especially in the United States, should count on a dramatic change in Iran's policies, even if Ahmadinejad loses, writes Alireza Nader.

India, Pakistan Must Confront Threat of More Violence — Dec. 9, 2008

Indian security guard, photo courtesy of Flickr/ayaschok

As the last Mumbai sites were being cleared of terrorists, grim signs emerged of the challenges that face India and Pakistan. Unfortunately, beginning to know what the Mumbai attack was -- and what it was not -- only augurs more violence for India. At least three factors are at play, writes Christine Fair.

The Backlash Against Terror — Dec. 8, 2008

Muslim woman and child, India

The recent terrorist attacks in Mumbai, India, are part of a disturbing trend across the Muslim world of groups that target civilians in the name of Islam. Less visible to Western eyes, but potentially just as significant, is a growing backlash among Muslims who condemn such attacks as unethical, writes Seth Jones.

History of Egyptian Grassroots Political Reform Movement Provides Insight Into Reform Efforts — Nov. 25, 2008

poster of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, photo courtesy of Flickr

The Kefaya Movement, an indigenous effort for political reform organized in Egypt, provides policymakers with an example of the challenges grassroots organizations in the Arab world face as they try to implement democracy and political reform. In late 2004, Kefaya was able to mobilize wide segments of Egyptian society.

Piracy Needs Regional Answer — Nov. 25, 2008

anti-piracy training, photo courtesy of U.S. Navy/Erdmann

The international community is at something of a loss as to how to respond to the increasingly audacious nature of piracy off the Horn of Africa.... What's needed is a less dramatic and more nuanced approach, one with a greater focus on the land-based violence in Somalia, home of the pirates, writes Peter Chalk.

Talk to the Taliban? Not Now — Nov. 11, 2008

a Taliban captured by soldiers in Afghanistan, photo courtesy of Army/J. Wagner

As new U.S. Central Command chief Gen. David Petraeus got a firsthand look at the worsening security situation in Afghanistan last week, he heard from some U.S., British and Afghan officials that the best way forward is to engage in peace talks with the Taliban. Such talks have already even tentatively begun. This is a bad idea.

Four Countries in the Middle East Face the Human Capital Challenges of the 21st Century — Oct. 31, 2008

arab student in Middle East works on laptop, Starbucks drink

Education and labor market initiatives are under way in four Arab nations -- Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates -- to address the challenges of developing the human capital of their populations for the 21st century global economy, though better evaluation of the implemented reforms will be needed to determine their efficacy.

New Book Provides Unique View Into Mind of Fanatical Jihadists — Oct. 15, 2008

masked terrorist

David Aaron, a veteran U.S. diplomat and director of the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy, has compiled a wide range of writings by Islamic terrorists that offer an unusual window into their mentality. The book, "In Their Own Words: Voices of Jihad," is a virtual encyclopedia of jihadist rhetoric written by the terrorists themselves.

Political Reform in the Arab World is a Mixed Bag in Confronting Terrorism — Sep. 24, 2008

political reform in arab countries

Democratic political reforms can marginalize extremists and undermine support for political violence, but cosmetic reforms and backtracking on democratization can exacerbate the risk of terrorism.

Probing Why Women Kill in Iraq — Aug. 7, 2008

two Muslim women in burqas

A significant emphasis has been placed on female suicide bombers' tactical success, and efforts to determine why they kill focus on al-Qaida's recruitment of women. But little attention is paid to the personal motivation women have for killing themselves and dozens of innocents around them, writes Farhana Ali.

U.S. Should Rethink "War On Terrorism" Strategy to Deal with Resurgent Al Qaida — Jul. 29, 2008

al qa'ida supporters

Current U.S. strategy against terrorist organization al Qaida has not been successful at limiting the group's capabilities. Since Sept. 11, 2001, al Qaida has been involved in more terrorist attacks than ever before, spanning an increasingly broader range of targets.

U.S. Has Long-Term Economic, Political Options to Help Make Iran More Democratic — Jul. 10, 2008

two Muslim women at Tehran, Iran bazaar, courtesy of Flickr

The United States should pursue a mixed strategy toward Iran, using a variety of means to promote favorable social developments within the country and at the same time exploiting vulnerabilities in the nation's political, economic and demographic conditions.

The Rise of Political Islam in Turkey: The Nation’s Role in Western Security Efforts — Jun. 23, 2008

turkish mosque at sunset

While Muslim-majority Turkey may be the linchpin to promoting liberal Islam worldwide, relationships between the nation’s secular government and religious forces have shifted in the past decade, with implications for the future of Islam in the region and the world.

Unbeknownst to U.S., Islamic Media Shapes the Mid-East — May 23, 2008

media conference

A DVD is now available of a conference RAND sponsored to build awareness of popular media initiatives in the Islamic world that are successfully combating extremist agendas.

Good Morning, Syria! – Time to Revisit Our Axis of Evil List? — Apr. 22, 2008

Photo Courtesy of Flicker

The time may come to start contemplating whether Syria might follow the example of Libya and make its way off the axis of evil, write Cheryl Benard and Ed O'Connell.

Danish Cartoons Doom Us All — Mar. 21, 2008

muslim protesting danish cartoon

Like two years ago, last week's rage in Pakistan over reprints of cartoons and a forthcoming Dutch film that insult Islam's holy book once again entangles Muslims and the West in a fury over freedom of speech, writes Farhana Ali.

Finding Common Ground in an Uncommon Nation — Mar. 19, 2008

Boys in Damascus, photo by Ed O'Connell

Cheryl Benard and Ed O'Connell write about their time in Syria discovering creative outlets in media, such as how a director in a country known for defending terrorism could produce "entertainment" that portrayed quite the opposite.

Women and Nation-Building — Feb. 27, 2008

Women and nation-building

Women's participation in post-conflict nation-building is an important ingredient in achieving an equitable, peaceful and more prosperous society. Leaders should include women in the earliest economic reconstruction activities.

Make Room for Refugees — Dec. 16, 2007

Iraqi refugees, photo courtesy U.S. Marine Corps

Today, tens of thousands of Iraqis are in grave danger, targeted because they have worked with the United States. Many have been murdered. Others have fled their homes because of attacks or threats… Many want to come to America, and we should welcome them, writes Olga Oliker.

The Quest for Common Grounds in American and Iranian Public Opinion — Oct. 2, 2007

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, photo by Daniella Zalcman

Although the emergent and ever-deepening conflict between Iran and the U.S. is often framed in the rhetoric of "clash of civilizations," a review of data from the World Values Survey found considerable common ground in the values of the American and Iranian peoples.

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