Europe and NATO
Selected Research, Commentary and Congressional Testimony
The Fall of the Wall: A World Restored? — Nov. 9, 2009
When the Berlin Wall fell 20 years ago, those raised in the shadow of possible nuclear holocaust felt disbelief, followed by relief and hope that the end of the Cold War would bring lasting peace, and the end of conflict. And in Europe, at least, it mostly did – but not everywhere, writes Christopher S. Chivvis.
Commentary
International Affairs Research Area
The Day After... in Jerusalem: A Strategic Planning Exercise on the Path to Middle East Peace — Nov. 6, 2009
Starting in 2008, the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy conducted a series of exercises to help the new U.S. administration address the challenges of the Arab-Israeli conflict (and of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in particular) as a key component of the broader effort to secure stability in the Middle East.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Our Man in Kabul — Nov. 5, 2009
Now that Karzai has been declared the election's winner, the breach with Abdullah—the man most responsible for his original rise to power—could have very dangerous consequences. The last thing Karzai, NATO, and the United States can afford is the emergence of a renewed northern alliance, writes James Dobbins.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Karzai's Second Term a Test for International Community — Nov. 2, 2009
Afghan President Hamid Karzai begins his second term with his country on the brink of chaos. To establish control, two major elements of reform are necessary, writes Terrence Kelly.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Price of Intoxication: The Case for a Minimum Price for Alcohol — Oct. 30, 2009
Both the English and Scottish governments have expressed interest in introducing laws setting a minimum price for all alcoholic beverages. Compelling research has found that this could save the taxpayer millions of pounds every year in health, criminal, and other costs, writes Lila Rabinovich.
CommentaryPublic Safety Research Area
Keeping Our Allies on Our Side in Afghanistan — Oct. 27, 2009
'There is only one thing worse than fighting with allies," observed Winston Churchill in 1945, "and that is fighting without them." It's a truth worth recalling as the Obama administration nears crucial decisions on Afghanistan, write Leo Michel and Robert Hunter.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
Biden's Task in Eastern Europe: Reassurance — Oct. 20, 2009
Vice President Joseph Biden's trip to eastern Europe this week provides an important opportunity to reassure Poland, the Czech Republic, and Romania that the U.S. is committed to their security. This reassurance is needed, especially in the wake of the decision to cancel the deployment of missile defense installations in the region, write F. Stephen Larrabee and Christopher S. Chivvis.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Green Buildings, Jobs and Summits — Sep. 25, 2009
If the United States is to be a global competitor in green building technology, it needs to learn from some of the countries that are at the table in Pittsburgh this week, writes Charles Ries.
CommentaryEnergy and Environment Research Area
G-20 Growing Pains — Sep. 24, 2009
The increasing importance of the G-20 summits is testimony to the growing role emerging states now play in managing the international economy. But integrating these newcomers into the global community is unlikely to be straightforward or simple, writes Lowell H. Schwartz.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
The Right Move in Europe: Improved Opportunities with NATO, Russia — Sep. 22, 2009
Obama's decision to alter course on missile defense was the right choice. Those who call it a capitulation to Russia are wrong, and it plays into Russia's hands to portray the decision in that manner. But the change of course will have to be complemented with more appropriate initiatives, writes Christopher S. Chivvis.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Real Threats, Real Fears, Real Defenses — Sep. 21, 2009
Critics of the Bush administration missile defense plans for Central Europe have charged that the U.S. would be deploying defenses that did not work against a threat that did not exist. It would also defend countries not threatened by Iran, while leaving Iran's more likely victims entirely uncovered, writes James Dobbins.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
China's International Behavior: Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification — Aug. 27, 2009
China is a global actor of significant and growing importance, now integrated into the international system and altering that system's dynamics. The complexity of China's ever-changing global activism raises questions about its intentions and the implications for global stability and prosperity.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Limited Options: Deterring North Korea and Iran — Aug. 14, 2009
The question today is no longer whether the United States can still prevent North Korea and Iran from emerging as nuclear-armed regional adversaries, but instead, how to prevent them from being empowered by their nuclear weapons. This won't be easy, writes Lowell H. Schwartz.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
World Economic Recession Unlikely to Have Lasting Geopolitical Consequences — Jul. 30, 2009
Will the current global economic recession have long-term geopolitical implications? Assuming that economic recovery begins in the first half of 2010, lasting structural alterations in the international system — a substantial change in U.S.-China relations, for example — are unlikely. This is because economic performance is only one of many geopolitical elements that shape countries' strategic intent and core external policies.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Russia and the Perils of Personal Diplomacy — Jul. 6, 2009
As President Obama takes part in his first U.S.-Russian summit, a good deal of media attention has focused on whether he will be able to establish good personal relations with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, though the preoccupation with personal relations has rarely proved successful, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Mullah Sprung from Gitmo Jail Now Leads Foe in Afghan Campaign — Jul. 5, 2009
As Marine Corps forces roll into southern Afghanistan, they face an enemy familiar to US officials — Mullah Zakir, a former Guantanamo Bay prisoner who now leads a reconstituted Taliban, writes Seth G. Jones.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
The Long March: Building an Afghan National Army — Jun. 2, 2009
The Afghan National Army (ANA) is critical to the success of achieving a stable Afghanistan. This monograph assesses the ANA's progress and finds that though it has come a long way since the outset of the recent conflict in the country, the United States will play a crucial role in Afghanistan for the foreseeable future.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
The U.S. and India Need to Work Together to Prepare for an Increasingly Chaotic Pakistan — May 12, 2009
For every good reason, the Obama Administration is devoting enormous thought to Pakistan. In my judgment, the evolving situation in Pakistan is potentially the most dangerous international situation since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, writes Robert D. Blackwill.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
NATO After the Summit: Rebuilding Consensus — May 6, 2009
In testimony presented before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Subcommittee on European Affairs, Robert E. Hunter sets forth the need for a revised transatlantic compact with engagement beyond Europe's borders, efforts to reinvigorate the NATO-Russia Council, and the development of non-military activities.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
European Union at Cross Purposes in Kosovo — Apr. 27, 2009
Of all the international actors involved in Kosovo right now, the European Union has by far the most at stake. It is also in the strongest position to remedy the situation. Sadly, it is too divided over Kosovo's declaration of independence over a year ago to take effective action, writes Christopher Chivvis.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Leaving the Nest — Apr. 17, 2009
In the wake of President Obama's recent European trip, hopes for a rejuvenation of transatlantic security cooperation continue to rise. This means resolving some old problems and avoiding new pitfalls, writes Christopher S. Chivvis.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Piracy Still Threatens the Freedom of the Seas — Apr. 6, 2009
As recent events off the Horn of Africa have demonstrated, armed violence at sea is emerging as a growing threat.... Piracy threatens the freedom of the seas, increases the cost of international business, endangers political security through corruption, and could trigger a major environmental disaster, write Peter Chalk and Laurence Smallman.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Afghanistan Is NATO's Most Important Challenge — Apr. 3, 2009
NATO has a useful future. But it will require bridging the gap in perceptions between the U.S. and most of the European allies about what is important for security and what to do about it. Both sides have to start seeing the other's interests and concerns; and the time to make those commitments is at the NATO summit, writes Robert E. Hunter.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan — Apr. 2, 2009
In testimony presented before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on Middle East and South Asia, Seth G. Jones asserts that a key challenge to bringing about the end of the Afghan insurgency lies in implementing the new U.S. strategy.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
Space: The Final Junkyard? — Apr. 2, 2009
Celestial real estate is increasingly popular. All in all more than 900 satellites, along with tens of thousands of bits of man-made space detritus, jockey for elbow room overhead. The result: a growing threat our atmosphere will soon become so crowded with floating junk as to become almost unusable, write Caroline Reilly and Peter D. Zimmerman.
CommentaryScience and Technology Research Area
Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan — Mar. 26, 2009
In testimony before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs former Ambassador to Afghanistan James Dobbins outlines the steps the Obama administration should take to secure the nation as the situation there worsens.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Ultimate Exit Strategy — Mar. 26, 2009
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has described the upcoming high-level conference on Afghanistan at The Hague as a "big-tent meeting, with all the parties who have a stake and an interest in Afghanistan." With the situation in that country growing more precarious by the day, those attending this meeting must also think big, write Karl F. Inderfurth and James Dobbins.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
France's Creeping Reintegration — Mar. 24, 2009
At the upcoming NATO summit, French President Sarkozy is expected to formally announce France's return to NATO's integrated military command, which, if confirmed, will remove an important irritant in U.S.-French relations and open up new possibilities for strengthening U.S.-European cooperation more broadly, writes Stephen Larrabee.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
U.S.-NATO Immersion Course — Mar. 10, 2009
At a major conference in Munich last month, Vice President Joseph Biden underscored the U.S. determination to rebuild strong and productive relations with its European allies. No issue matters more than Afghanistan, writes Robert E. Hunter.
Commentary
Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan — Feb. 26, 2009
In testimony presented before the Senate Armed Services Committee, James Dobbins suggests steps the new Administration and its allies should consider in reviewing Afghan policy.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Going the Distance — Feb. 15, 2009
Afghanistan has a reputation as a graveyard of empires, based as much on lore as on reality.... Yes, the situation is serious, but it's far from doomed. We can still turn things around if we strive for a better understanding of the Afghan insurgency and work to exploit its many weaknesses, writes Seth G. Jones.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
Maritime Piracy: Reasons, Dangers and Solutions — Feb. 4, 2009
In testimony presented before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation, Peter Chalk testifies on the scope and contributing factors driving the rash of recent pirate attacks and the principal dangers associated with this particular manifestation of transnational crime.
Full DocumentTransportation and Infrastructure Research Area
The Secret Briefing Obama Needs on Day One — Jan. 22, 2009
A select few Americans will ever see the president's daily brief -- a digest of the intelligence community's most closely guarded secrets. But trust me, Barack Obama is going to need much more useful information than he is getting now, writes Gregory F. Treverton.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
Challenges Ahead for the EU's Security and Defense Policy — Jan. 16, 2009
On its 10th anniversary, the European Union can look back on its Security and Defense Policy (ESDP) with some sense of accomplishment. But the next 10 years may prove more difficult, writes Christopher S. Chivvis.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Enhancement by Enlargement: The Proliferation Security Initiative — Dec. 21, 2008
The Proliferation Security Initiative consists of 91 countries seeking to limit the spread of weapons of mass destruction between states or non-state actors that would thereby pose a serious threat to global or regional security. This report assesses the perspectives of the five "hold-out" nations and how to possibly gain their affiliation.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
Thinking About America's Defense: An Analytical Memoir — Dec. 15, 2008
Lieutenant General Glenn A. Kent, a uniquely acute analyst and developer of American defense policy in the second half of the twentieth century, summarizes the dozens of national security issues in which he was personally engaged in his 33-year career in the Air Force and his more than 20 years as one of the leading analysts at RAND.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
Terrorists Have to Be Lucky Once; Targets, Every Time — Nov. 30, 2008
The 9/11 tragedy was a catalyst that accelerated the pace of the changes in the UK security model that were already occurring due to the waning threat of terrorism from the IRA and the growing threat from those who espoused an ideology of violent jihadism. The changes took place in three main areas, writes Lindsay Clutterbuck.
CommentaryTerrorism and Homeland Security Research Area
Piracy Needs Regional Answer — Nov. 25, 2008
The international community is at something of a loss as to how to respond to the increasingly audacious nature of piracy off the Horn of Africa.... What's needed is a less dramatic and more nuanced approach, one with a greater focus on the land-based violence in Somalia, home of the pirates, writes Peter Chalk.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Talk to the Taliban? Not Now — Nov. 11, 2008
As new U.S. Central Command chief Gen. David Petraeus got a firsthand look at the worsening security situation in Afghanistan last week, he heard from some U.S., British and Afghan officials that the best way forward is to engage in peace talks with the Taliban. Such talks have already even tentatively begun. This is a bad idea.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Lessons from Six Decades of Research on Deterrence, From Cold War to Long War — Oct. 30, 2008
The United States' 2006 reversal of its 2002 proclamation that deterrence was irrelevant to most future national security strategies is bolstered by research which shows that deterrence will likely play an ongoing role in U.S. efforts to manage a variety of threats, including both near-peer competitors and terrorist organizations.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
It's 2018, and the Economy's Hot... — Oct. 22, 2008
If the nation is to emerge from a recession in a position of strength, we should chart our course carefully now. The government bailout of the banking sector could yield a substantial payout one day—and now is the time to earmark that money for our knowledge sector, writes Jonathan Grant.
Commentary
A 'Europe Whole and Free and at Peace' — Sep. 9, 2008
Events in Georgia, "half way around the world" as President Bush reminded us, can and will have broader repercussions, most particularly on Russia's relations with Europe and especially the United States, far beyond anything at stake in the Caucasus, writes Robert E. Hunter.
Commentary
Ukraine: The Next Crisis? — Sep. 7, 2008
The Russian invasion of Georgia has sent shock waves throughout the West and the former Soviet space - especially Ukraine. Indeed, Ukraine could be the next potential crisis, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Georgia: Breakdown of Vision the West Had for a New Europe — Aug. 28, 2008
Since the Russian Federation sent tanks, troops, and planes slicing into Georgia, commentators have reached for a variety of historic parallels.... None of these supposed parallels catches the current situation.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Kosovo and South Ossetia More Different Than Similar — Aug. 25, 2008
The Russian government has long highlighted the similarities between Kosovo and South Ossetia.... The two situations, however, while similar on some points, are fundamentally different where it matters: in their implications for the future of international relations, writes Olga Oliker.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Turkey's Second Chance — Aug. 24, 2008
The recent decision by the Turkish Constitutional Court not to close the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) helped Turkey - and especially Prime Minister Tayyip Recep Erdogan - narrowly dodge a dangerous political bullet.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
UK's 30 Year Defense Plan to Acquire 50 Ships, Submarines May Overstretch Capacity — Jul. 21, 2008
To preserve its ability to design, build and support complex warships and submarines, the UK's Ministry of Defence (MOD) asked RAND Europe for help with identifying labour implications for its shipbuilding programme. Research indicates that MOD will need to preserve and sustain several key technical skills, especially detailed designers and professional engineers for various stages of surface ship and submarine acquisition and support.
Full DocumentResearch Brief
How to Save Karzai — Jul. 15, 2008
The United States and other NATO countries should stop undermining Hamid Karzai now, shore up support for him as the democratically elected president of Afghanistan, and help him show progress, writes Seth G. Jones.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
The Rise of Political Islam in Turkey: The Nation’s Role in Western Security Efforts — Jun. 23, 2008
While Muslim-majority Turkey may be the linchpin to promoting liberal Islam worldwide, relationships between the nation’s secular government and religious forces have shifted in the past decade, with implications for the future of Islam in the region and the world.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
Russia's Soccer Diplomacy — May 29, 2008
Despite its authoritarian political system, Russia is in many ways increasingly open. Its people are part of a consumer society that models its consumption habits after Western Europe, says Lowell Schwartz.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Breaking the Failed-State Cycle — May 27, 2008
The predominant threat to U.S. security in the 21st century comes not from the actions of opposing countries but from the fallout of collapsing ones. The world’s leading states can and should help the citizens of failed states by integrating efforts to reduce violence, advance the economy, and reform government.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Afghanistan: From Chaos and Corruption to Sustainable Success — May 23, 2008
Since the 2002 U.S.-led attacks in Afghanistan, the country has
struggled to stabilize their government and society. RAND co-hosted a
conference attended by experts in academia, government and NGOs from
over 20 nations to discuss the need for a strategic approach to
Afghanistan's attempts at nation-building.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Afghan Progress Spotty but Hopeful — Apr. 29, 2008
As NATO's role in Afghanistan was debated in Bucharest recently, the bad headlines continued rolling in. And yet, on the ground, there is equally compelling evidence that the efforts of the international community are making a difference, write Obaid Younossi and Peter Dahl Thruelsen.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Turkey as a U.S. Security Partner — Apr. 10, 2008
Turkey has long been an important ally, but Ankara is increasingly behaving more independently and assertively in ways that must factor into future U.S. planning for the region.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
Georgia on Their Mind — Mar. 27, 2008
As NATO heads toward its summit meeting in Bucharest on April 3-4, the question of NATO enlargement — especially whether to give Membership Action Plans, or MAPs, to Georgia and Ukraine — has re-emerged as a contentious issue, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Developing U.S. Civilian Personnel Capabilities in State-Building Operations — Mar. 19, 2008
Recent U.S. experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq have shown that engaging in stability and reconstruction operations is a difficult and lengthy process that requires appropriate resources. A framework for improving U.S. civilian personnel and staffing programs for state-building efforts could help.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
An Independent Kosovo Was a Part of the U.N.'s Plan — Feb. 25, 2008
Diplomatic wrangling over Kosovo’s declaration of independence this week has created a good deal of misunderstanding about the U.N. Security Council Resolution that defines that society’s current status and future evolution, writes James Dobbins.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Assessing the Impact of Nutrition Label Revisions in the EU — Feb. 7, 2008
The European Commission (EC) is currently considering a revision of its food nutrition labelling legislation. An assessment of the proposed policy alternatives addresses their potential economic, social and environmental impact.
Full DocumentHealth and Health Care Research Area
International Perspectives on Interagency Reform — Jan. 30, 2008
In testimony presented before the Armed Services Committee, Nora Bensahel discusses the lack of civilian capacity in stability and nation building operations, which has led to an overreliance on military forces.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Not That Bad a Legacy, After All — Jan. 17, 2008
George W. Bush may leave a positive foreign policy legacy after all. A year ago this would have seemed difficult to credit... [Y]et over this period, Bush has put in place a series of more pragmatic policies from which even a Democratic successor will have a hard time moving away, writes James Dobbins.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Army Resource Gaps Can Be Filled by Building Partner Capabilities — Nov. 6, 2007
Ongoing operations and emerging mission requirements place a heavy burden on U.S. Army resources, resulting in capability gaps that the Army might fill by building appropriate capabilities in allies and partner armies through focused security cooperation.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
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