CAPP Newsletter Archive: March 2003
March 2003 Table of Contents
from the Director
In February, RAND hosted Pakistan's Foreign Minister and Ambassador for a roundtable with researchers and submitted a report on Islam in Afghanistan's new constitution to the White House and President Karsai. Our researchers continue to brief government officials and the media on unfolding events on the Korean peninsula.
-Nina Hachigian, CAPP Director
Korean Government Says It's Prepared For Worst-Case Scenario
Bruce Bennett on CNN's Daybreak
January 16, 2003
CNN interviewed RAND analyst Bruce Bennett about North Korea's suspected nuclear capability and the dangers of a worst-case scenario--war-- arising from the current tension between the U.S. and North Korea. Bennett warned that, according to Russian intelligence reports, enough plutonium could have been smuggled into North Korea in the 1990s to make five or more nuclear weapons. He also cautioned that even the U.S. mainland might not be immune in a conflict.
Korea Just Tip of Iceberg
Greg Jones quoted by United Press International
January 13, 2003
While much attention has been understandably focused on the nuclear crisis posed by North Korea, global proliferation of all types of non-conventional weapons, by a variety of countries, is a critical security issue. Jones points out that successes in nonproliferation made before the 1990s have stalled in recent years. "Nuclear proliferation is the one that bothers me the most," said Jones. "We seem to now be losing ground."
of Illegal Exports to China
James Mulvenon quoted in the New York Times
January 15, 2003
Three separate recent indictments of Chinese natives for illegally exporting equipment and trade secrets show a continuing effort by China to procure high technology from the United States, particularly in Silicon Valley, according to the Times. "There is very aggressive economic espionage and reverse engineering by Chinese commercial enterprises exploiting the diaspora of Chinese," Mulvenon commented.
and Islam in the New Constitution of Afghanistan
RAND recently convened a group of experts in the fields of Islamic law, constitution writing, and democracy to offer ideas for Afghanistan's new constitution. The group discussed the constitutional history and current
politics of Afghanistan, as well as ways that other Muslim countries addressed Islam in their constitutions. They debated how different provisions of the future Afghan constitution could incorporate Islam and the advantages and drawbacks of different formulations. The report was submitted to the White House and to Afghanistan's President Hamid Karsai.
Military and Democracy in Indonesia: Challenges, Politics,
by Angel Rabasa and John Haseman
Indonesia's military continues to play a critical part in determining Indonesia's future. The authors of this book examine the role of the military in politics and society since the fall of President Suharto in 1998. They present several strategic scenarios for Indonesia, which have important implications for U.S.-Indonesian relations, and propose goals for Indonesian military reform and elements of a U.S. engagement policy.
Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic
Consequences of Population Change
by David E. Bloom, David Canning, Jaypee Sevilla
Developing countries can spur economic growth by reducing high fertility rates and enacting policies to improve health, education, and create job opportunities, according to a new RAND report. East Asian nations have had the most success in capturing the demographic dividend. The benefits of a falling birth rate and a burgeoning working-age population account for as much as one-third of the region's economic growth, according to the authors.
Science and Technology Capacity Building for Development
While the roles of science, technology and innovation are important in economic development, most developing countries do not have the same level of capacity to generate new knowledge as advanced countries. The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) is looking at ways to advance developing countries' science and technology (S&T) capacity. RAND researchers recently completed case studies of USAID's work in several countries, including efforts to improve energy efficiency and reduce pollution in India, to examine ways that USAID can more fully optimize its contributions to S&T capacity in the future. A new briefing has been posted in draft form to stimulate discussion.
PLA and the 16th Party Congress: Jiang Controls the Gun?
James Mulvenon article published in China Leadership Monitor
Winter 2003, Issue 5
For Western observers of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the 16th Party Congress presented a curious mixture of the past, the present, and the future. Mulvenon's article explores the implications of Jiang's gambit, analyzes the retirements of senior PLA leaders and the biographies of their replacements, and offers some predictions about the choice of defense minister and the future course of Chinese Communist Party-PLA relations.
News and Events
CAPP Hosts Pakistani Foreign Minister and Ambassador
CAPP held a roundtable discussion on January 24 with the visiting Foreign Minister of Pakistan, Mian Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri. Kasuri was accompanied by Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, Ambassador of Pakistan to the United States, and other officials. The delegation discussed a variety of topics with RAND analysts and CAPP board members. Read more
CAPP Advisory Board Members Hail from Korea
The CAPP Advisory Board welcomed two prominent representatives of Korea, Chairman Lee Woong-Yeul and Mr. Michael Kim. Board member Daniel Yun introduced them to RAND and arranged a visit to RAND's Santa Monica office last year. Read more
Islam and Militancy in Southeast Asia
RAND Senior Policy Analyst Angel Rabasa discussed political Islam in Southeast Asia at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University, on February 5, and at the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations on February 11. Rabasa is currently heading a RAND project on the Muslim World after 9/11. Read more
Ministry Representatives Discuss Future of US-Korea Relations
with RAND Researchers
CAPP hosted a visit to RAND's Santa Monica office from officials of the Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The group met with several RAND researchers on December 9 to solicit insight and analysis on a study they are conducting to forecast the world environment in 2020 and its impact on Korea. Read more
and the Internet: A Game of Cat and Mouse?
On December 12, 2002, CAPP hosted a presentation at RAND's Santa Monica office by Guo Liang, professor at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and a well-known authority on China's Internet, about China's Internet censorship and usage. He discussed the findings of his study of both users and non-users to gage the impact of the Internet on society, politics, and economics. Read more
and Journalists in Asia Meet with
RAND Director of International Programs and Development
Jerrold Green has given video presentations to U.S. Embassies in Beijing, Hanoi, and Tokyo to help interpret U.S. policy towards Iraq for journalists and researchers in each country.
U.S. and Korea: Where Do We Go From Here?
RAND analyst Gregory Treverton presented research on the future of North Korea and U.S. policy at a conference at the University of California, Irvine on January 31. Read more
from Taiwan Visit RAND
On November 20, CAPP hosted a roundtable with analysts from several research institutions in Taiwan. The topics of cross-strait relations, China's economy, and warming trends in the relationship between the U.S. and China
dominated the discussion. Read more
The following are newsgroups, magazines, portal sites, and other online resources that policy analysts, researchers, and others studying Asia-Pacific policy may find helpful. Please note that CAPP has no control over these sites and is not responsible for their content. Links to other sites are provided for convenience of reference only and are not intended as an endorsement by CAPP or RAND.
The Global Development Network (GDN) seeks to support and link research and policy institutes involved in the field of development. The GDN started out as a World Bank initiative in 1999 with the primary objectives of supporting the generation and sharing of knowledge for development and helping to bridge the gap between the development of ideas and their practical implementation. The premise of the GDN is that their achievement requires strengthening the capacity of research and policy institutions to undertake high-quality, policy-relevant research and to move research results into the policy debates, at both national and global levels.