A Sino-U.S. war could take various, and unintended, paths. Because intense, reciprocal conventional counterforce attacks could inflict heavy losses and costs on both sides, leaders need options and channels to contain and terminate fighting.
This report analyzes Taiwan's options for allocating resources for air defense, describes the essential air defense problem that China poses, characterizes the current capabilities and level of funding that Taiwan invests in air defense, and develops several alternative investment strategies. The authors then test those investment strategies in three vignettes that span the range of conflict, from limited coercion to a full invasion.
Assessing the Ability of the Afghan Ministry of Interior Affairs to Support the Afghan Local Police2016
RAND researchers assess the ability of the Afghan Ministry of Interior Affairs to support the Afghan Local Police program; evaluate the range of logistics, personnel management, and training activities essential to the success of the program's local security mission; and identify lessons from support to the program that might prove useful when undertaking similar efforts to help build local security forces in the future.
Attitudes Toward Local and National Government Expressed over Chinese Social Media: A Case Study of Food Safety2016
Psycholinguistic analysis of Chinese-language social media can provide insight into the attitudes of Twitter and Sina Weibo users toward local and national government and Western companies. This exploration of Chinese-language social media regarding food safety traces a preliminary road map to conduct such analysis, including a methodology for analyzing Chinese-language social media and a discussion of the inherent promises and limitations.
The Center for Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance (CFE-DMHA): An Assessment of Roles and Missions2016
The Department of Defense's Center for Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance (CFE-DMHA) was established in 1994 to provide and facilitate education, training, and research in civil-military operations. This report examines CFE-DMHA's history, activities, and roles to determine how its missions can best be performed to achieve the objectives of the Department of Defense in this domain.
Drawing on Chinese military writings, this report finds that China's strategic-deterrence concepts are evolving in response to Beijing's changing assessment of its external security environment and a growing emphasis on protecting its emerging interests in space and cyberspace. China also is rapidly closing what was once a substantial gap between the People's Liberation Army's strategic weapons capabilities and its strategic-deterrence concepts.
Counterinsurgency Scorecard Update: Afghanistan in Early 2015 Relative to Insurgencies Since World War II2016
A key finding of previous RAND research on insurgencies worldwide since World War II was that an overall score on a scorecard of 15 equally weighted good and 11 equally weighted bad counterinsurgency factors and practices distinguished conflicts' historical outcomes. Using the scorecard approach and an expert elicitation exercise, a RAND study sought to extend the findings to the case of Afghanistan in 2015.
Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on January 21, 2016.