The RAND Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition was established in 2001 through a generous $5 million pledge from RAND alumnus Frederick S. Pardee. The RAND Pardee Center aims to enhance the overall future quality and condition of human life by aggressively disseminating and applying new methods for long-term policy analysis in a wide variety of policy areas where they are needed most.
The Pardee Center organizes its activities around two main themes: (1) advancing the state-of the-art in conducting long-term policy analysis so organizations can implement better long-range policy; and (2) developing and disseminating approaches that will help make proper stewardship for the future be more commonly practiced.
Robust Decision Making showed El Dorado Irrigation District managers the results of key trade-offs among future strategies and how expectations for future vulnerable conditions can guide decisions to augment their long-term plan.
The Colorado River Basin Study evaluated the river system's resiliency and compared resource management options. The Robust Decision Making methodology helped to identify vulnerabilities and compare portfolios of options.
This report describes a proof-of-concept analysis using Robust Decision Making to evaluate water resource management response packages for California's Central Valley under future uncertainty for the California Water Plan Update 2013.
Scenario discovery offers a new means to characterize and communicate the information in computer simulation models under conditions of deep uncertainty.
A new set of scenarios, referred to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), examines challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. Developing SSPs with a "backwards" approach could help inform the development of SSPs to ensure the storylines focus on the driving forces most relevant to distinguishing between the SSPs.
Many objective robust decision making (MORDM) combines concepts and methods from many objective evolutionary optimization and robust decision making (RDM), along with extensive use of interactive visual analytics, to facilitate the management of complex environmental systems.
Limiting climate change will require transformation of energy and other systems. A new model that uses Robust Decision Making tools enables decisionmakers to compare the long-term sustainability of alternative carbon emission reduction policies.
Climate information alone cannot be sufficient for anticipating and reducing climate impacts. Enhanced vulnerability science is needed, including local to global monitoring, to support effective anticipatory efforts to increase societal resilience to potentially disruptive events.
Ho Chi Minh City faces significant and growing flood risk. Recent risk reduction efforts may not work if climate and socio-economic conditions diverge from earlier projections. Robust decisionmaking can help Vietnam's capital develop integrated flood risk management strategies despite this uncertainty.
The path to climate change preparedness should start at the intersection of resilience and robustness — that is, building resilient communities with the individuals and organizations within those communities making robust decisions, ones designed to work well over a wide range of ever-changing conditions.
Quantitative analysis is often indispensable to sound planning, but with deep uncertainty, predictions can lead decisionmakers astray. Robust Decision Making supports good decisions without predictions by testing plans against many futures.
The severe underutilization of climate models as tools for supporting decision making is slowing progress in developing informed adaptation and mitigation responses to climate change. Addressing the root causes of this problem will require expanding the conception of climate models as scenario generators.
Developing an integrated perspective on mitigation, adaptation and residual climate impacts could be aided by identifying a set of global narratives and socio-economic pathways offering scalability to different regional contexts.