CAPP Events: 2002

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Researchers from China Think Tank Visit RAND

On September 6, 2002, CAPP hosted a roundtable for visiting representatives from the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), the think tank for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The delegation, which was led by CIIS Vice President Ruan Zongze, visited RAND’s Santa Monica office to discuss various foreign policy issues with a group of RAND researchers and CAPP advisory board members. Shen Shishun and Guo Xiangang accompanied Mr. Ruan. RAND representatives included James Dobbins, director of NDRI's International Security and Defense Policy Center, Charles Wolf, Jr., Corporate Chair in International Economics, and Edward (Ted) Harshberger, Director of Project AIR FORCE’s Strategy and Doctrine program. William (Bill) Overholt, CAPP’s Asia Policy Corporate Chair, chaired the roundtable.

Bill Overholt provided the opening remarks and presented an overview of current U.S. foreign policy. He stated that the current over-arching policy of the Bush administration is succeeding in the war on terror. “Everything else is seen through that prism,” he added. Overholt noted that, while the war on terrorism has had a positive effect on U.S.-China relations, policy makers remain concerned about the escalating arms race between China and Taiwan and potential Chinese claims in the South China Sea.

He described the United States as a country held together by ideas, rather than a shared ethnic identity, with an ideological commitment to liberty and democracy that infuses U.S. foreign policy. He explained that divisions within the government concerning U.S. relations with China tend to reflect broader divisions in the nation as a whole. The center of the political spectrum, while less noisy than the far left and far right contingents who may have negative views of China, is solidly well-represented in Congress and at U.S. universities and, according to Overholt, has held for seven American presidencies. Overholt went on to say that China’s excessive territorial claims in the South China Sea are an enormous gift to those Americans who argue that China has aggressive, expansionist ambitions.

Vice President Ruan then discussed the arduous process of reform that China has undertaken in the past twenty years. He explained that a strong consensus exists in China to continue the momentum of economic reform and growth. He also stated that there is strong support in China for cooperation with the United States. Ruan addressed the issue of China-Taiwan relations and expressed his opinion that China would like to keep the status quo, which he asserted was “also in America’s best interests.” He thought that U.S. concern about China’s potential claims to islands in the South China Sea could be handled in a constructive way. He described this area as “less of a hotspot” than Taiwan.

The researchers also discussed the effects of globalization and agreed that nation states are becoming more interdependent as a result of global trade, the influence of technology and the Internet, and the need for cooperation against insurgent groups and terrorists, who are not bound by the same restraints that nation-states face as a result of this interdependence. According to the CIIS analysts, these factors have prompted China’s leaders to begin to consider China’s image in the international community and place a priority on working constructively with the rest of the world.

Overholt pointed out that the Bush administration is probably the last American administration to have its central experiences shaped by the Cold War, and CIIS researchers noted that the same observation could be made about the current leadership in China. He stressed that this will have wide-ranging implications for the U.S.-China relationship, as a new generation of leaders shaped less by Cold War ideology than by the realities of globalization eventually accede to power.