CAPP Events: 2002

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CAPP Hosts Discussion on India-Pakistan Relations

On February 5, CAPP sponsored a working lunch with Venu Rajamony, a Political Counselor at the Embassy of India in Beijing. Rajamony, who is currently spending six months in the United States as a Visiting Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, came to RAND to discuss the state of relations between Pakistan and India with an audience of RAND researchers, military fellows, and representatives from the Chinese Consulate in Los Angeles.

Rajamony first presented some background information about India and Pakistan relations. The two nuclear powers have fought three wars, two of them over the disputed region of Kashmir, and are currently engaged in a military stand-off at their border. Current tensions were prompted by a terrorist group's suicide attack on the Indian Parliament in December that India has attributed to Pakistani militants. On January 12, Pakistani President General Musharraf made a speech that was well-received by India in which he announced Pakistan's intentions to crack down on home-grown militant groups. Rajamony noted, however, that India is not likely to pull troops back from the border until Musharraf's words are translated into action. India has demanded that Pakistan hand over twenty accused terrorists on a "most wanted" list and has indicated that it will not remove its troops from the border until it sees a reduction in terrorist violence directed at Kashmir and India.

Rajamony then argued that the pressure that India is putting on Pakistan should be seen within the wider context of the U.S.-led war on terrorism. According to Rajamony, despite the fact that the Indian and U.S. media have accused India of taking advantage of the war on terrorism in its current conflict with Pakistan, Indians do not see their vigilance as mere opportunism. Rajamony opined that the United States and India both have security interests in addressing the problems of fundamentalist militants in Pakistan, and after the attack on its Parliament, the Indian government realized it must take a more proactive stance against terrorist groups.

Although the U.S. government has hinted at spreading the war on terrorism to other countries, Rajamony suggested that there is widespread sentiment in India that problems in Pakistan must be solved first. According to Rajamony, pressure from the United States and India on Pakistan to crack down on terrorists is working; India believes that the United States and India, working in coordination, can lead Pakistan away from militancy and terror by maintaining this pressure. Rajamony considered the war on terrorism a strategic glue that could bind the United States and India together. Since President Clinton's visit to India in March of 2000, relations between the United States and India have steadily improved, and the war on terrorism has shown India that the United States can play a positive role in the region.

Rajamony described a "new India on the move" - a pragmatic, self-confident country that does not ignore its problems and is not likely to set strict pre-conditions to negotiations over Kashmir - for example, the Prime Minister engaged Hizbul Mujahedeen, a pro-Pakistan Kashmiri militant group, in peace talks in 2000. Also, India is making slow but steady efforts towards economic liberalization and reform, which he argued should make the country an attractive partner to the United States.

After Rajamony's presentation concluded, seminar attendees engaged him in a lively discussion about the current crisis. Participants queried Rajamony about Musharraf's control or lack thereof of Pakistani militant groups, India's role in raising tensions in the current stand-off, the extent to which India's political parties disagree or are unified on foreign policy, and China's role in working with Pakistan on counterterrorism measures.