CAPP Events: 2002

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Legislators from Taiwan Visit RAND

On September 3, 2002, legislators from the Kuomintang and the People First Party, which represent the largest opposition in the legislature to Taiwan's governing party, the DPP, visited RAND's Santa Monica Office.

RAND President and CEO Jim Thomson presented an overview of RAND to the delegation, after which the legislators participated in a roundtable discussion on relations between China and Taiwan with a group of RAND experts.

Ted Harshberger, Director of Project AIR FORCE's Strategy and Doctrine program, chaired the discussion. He began by explaining that while the United States' security interests are aligned with Taiwan, and supporting democracies is a long-term U.S. trend, the U.S.-Taiwan relationship is not cost-free. Tension across the Taiwan Straits poses the potential for U.S. military involvement in a conflict, and there are competing schools of thought about the policy implications of China-Taiwan relations. Therefore, the United States' position on the China-Taiwan issue is far from settled.

CAPP Chair Bill Overholt added that prior to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, Taiwan was the focus of U.S. military planning, reflecting the seriousness with which the United States regards its ties with Taiwan and a realistic recognition that the area presents the United States with an uncomfortable situation. "Taiwan is like a fault line--a place where tectonic plates meet," Overholt said. He then asked the legislators, "Is that where Taiwan wants to be?"

Harshberger cited a recent RAND report, Dire Strait? Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Confrontation and Options for U.S. Policy, written by David Shlapak, David Orletsky, and Barry Wilson. The report evaluated the military buildup on both sides of the Strait and examined possible options for the United States if a military conflict between China and Taiwan were to erupt. The report's analysis showed that a large-scale amphibious invasion by China would have little chance of success; the main challenge facing the United States would be countering anti-access scenarios that might include missiles, submarines, and other diversionary tactics.

Some legislators expressed their concern that the ruling DPP party relies too much on the assumption that the United States would intervene in a China-Taiwan conflict.

RAND researchers thought there was less likelihood of a conventional World War II-style exchange of force between China and Taiwan and more danger in a Cold War-style prolonged discord in economic relations or other areas that would not be in the best interests of either country.

Overholt explained his view that the United States' policy toward Taiwan centers on human rights and democracy, and that the United States would like a peaceful solution to cross-strait tensions. "There is a need to find common ground," he said. "An arms race protracted to the next 20 years will not only be destabilizing, but very expensive."