CAPP Events: 2003

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CAPP Hosts Delegation from Korean National Defense University

On October 14, 2002, the Center for Asia Pacific Policy hosted a visit to RAND’s Santa Monica office by a delegation of professors and students from the Korean National Defense University in Seoul. Several RAND analysts, including Bruce Bennett, William Overholt, Charles Wolf, Jr., Rachel Swanger, Norman Levin, Julia Lowell, and Benjamin Zycher provided an overview of RAND and its Korea-related projects and engaged in a roundtable discussion with the visitors on international policy issues.

The Los Angeles Times had published an article that day about the attitudes of South Korean youth that spurred speculation among the group as to whether or not young people's interest in reunifying the Korean peninsula has waned, as the article had posited. Members of the delegation described reunification as an emotional issue in their country. They explained that although concern is growing in South Korea about the implications and potential costs of reunification, they felt that these issues do not dampen the core desire of most South Koreans to view the peninsula as one country. “South Koreans believe reunification must be achieved in the future,” Professor Colonel Lee asserted, “but how to achieve it is controversial - by force, or by dialogue?” He added that most Koreans prefer peaceful means.

The group discussed the Sunshine Policy, a broad concept representing South Korean President Kim Dae-jung’s policies of pursuing engagement with North Korea, and considered its future. Levin, who is currently finalizing the third report in a series of examinations of the internal debate in South Korea over the Sunshine Policy explained that much of the internal controversy is centered less on whether to pursue engagement than on the way it is pursued. Specific issues of disagreement include the question of reciprocity - what North Korea should be expected to provide in return for economic and other assistance from the South - and how to provide assistance. Levin thought that uncertainty surrounding the upcoming presidential election and sharp divisions among policymakers in South Korea are likely to prevent any early new initiatives in the Sunshine Policy. “The focus will be on implementing the agreements that have already been made,” he speculated.

The impetus behind recent overtures made by North Korea to open its economy and expand international contacts were debated among the group. Overholt thought that these moves “show a country fundamentally rethinking its strategy [but that has] no new strategy yet.” Zycher respectfully disagreed. “I see a regime dedicated to preserving its strategy, yet nibbling at the edges to muddle through,” he stated. He expressed skepticism about the Sunshine Policy’s future, given the determination of the North Korean regime to maintain power and the likelihood that what he considered to be unreciprocated concessions from South Korea cannot be politically viable in the long term.

The group also discussed whether strains were developing in the relationship between the United States and South Korea and how to mitigate them. Levin thought that the differences between the two countries were greatly exaggerated. “I’d be inclined to say that the differences within our two countries are greater than between our two countries,” he stressed, but he added that differences in policies do exist and should be paid attention to in the future. Members of the delegation emphasized the history of ties between the two countries as a strong link. According to University Professor Yongdo Shin, “Koreans will always remember what the U.S. sacrificed for Korea during the Korean war.”