CAPP Events: 2003

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Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs Representatives Discuss Future of U.S.-Korea Relations with RAND Researchers

Officials from the Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs, including Park Sang-hoon, deputy director general of North American Bureau, and Choi Kwang-jin, deputy director of the North American Division, visited RAND’s Santa Monica office on December 9 to solicit insight and analysis from several RAND researchers on a study they are conducting to forecast the world environment in 2020 and its impact on Korea. They were accompanied by Consul Won-ik Lee from the Consulate General of the Republic of Korea in Los Angeles. Analysts Bruce Bennett, Charles Wolf, Eric Larson, and CAPP Director Nina Hachigian participated in a roundtable discussion with the Ministry representatives.

The meeting took place against a backdrop of rising anger in South Korea over the deaths of two girls who were accidentally struck by a U.S. military vehicle outside Seoul. The group discussed the danger that increasing anti-American protests pose to the U.S.-Republic of Korea (ROK) alliance. Mr. Park explained, “There’s a difference between anti-American sentiment and anti-Americanism. Right now, there is anti-American sentiment. We need to prevent it from becoming anti-Americanism.” He expressed his opinion that while anti-American sentiment is more shallow than ever before, it’s also more organized and widespread, partly due to technologies like the Internet that facilitate its spread. “[Such sentiment] is not political or ideological,” he added. “It’s related more to specific cases.”

Bennett suggested that perhaps the incident could provide a basis for the two countries to consider the objectives of the alliance and its value to both, in order to “ground the relationship”. Larson explained that positive messages from the leadership and media in Korea would work to reinforce to the Korean people how valuable the alliance is.

Mr. Park pointed out that the prospect of reunification poses complications for the main justification of the alliance – the threat posed by North Korea. “North Korea is the enemy but is also a partner in future reunification,” he said. Nina Hachigian pointed out that reunification could happen in the 2020 timeframe of the study. Especially after reunification, she asserted, “the alliance will have to be justified.” Mr. Park suggested that in a post-unification scenario, U.S. troops could arguably stay on the peninsula to provide balance and stability in northeast Asia.

The RAND analysts agreed on a point made by Charles Wolf that the war on terrorism should be addressed in the Ministry’s forecasting study. Larson noted that as the risk of conventional war recedes on the peninsula, concern over the possibility of extremists obtaining nuclear weapons from North Korea if it disintegrates will influence the future goals and capabilities of South Korean and U.S. forces. The group also agreed on the immediate need for cooperation between the U.S., South Korea, and its neighbors in the region to pressure North Korea on its weapons of mass destruction capabilities without sending threatening signals that could lead to less stability and greater paranoia in Pyongyang.