CAPP Events: 2003

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Malaysia After Mahathir

Malaysia, a modernizing, stable Islamic country with a vibrant market economy, occupies a strategic position along important Asian sea lanes and plays a key role in enforcing security in the region. RAND Project AIR FORCE has supported research to examine U.S.-Malaysia relations post-September 11, including key issues in bilateral security cooperation. On October 23, 2003, analyst Anny Wong presented her findings at RAND’s Washington, D.C. office and discussed what the pending retirement of Prime Minister Mahathir, leader of Malaysia for the past two decades and an outspoken critic of the West, might mean for the United States.

Prior to September 11th, the U.S. and Malaysia enjoyed a good overall working relationship on trade and security cooperation. However, Mahathir’s outspokenness and the arrest of his former deputy prime minister, Anwar Ibrahim, which was perceived by many in the West as politically motivated, kept many western leaders at arms length from him. The attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, however, provided an opportunity for Mahathir and the U.S. to move past the rhetoric and the Anwar incident. Mahathir visited the U.S. Embassy for the first time in 21 years and immediately condemned the attacks. And although Mahathir expressed reservations against the United States’ action against Afghanistan, Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF), he did grant overflights for U.S. military planes engaged in OEF.

September 11th not only gave Malaysia an opportunity to strengthen its relationship with the U.S., it also helped Mahathir’s party, the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), to reassert its dominance after losing 22 seats to the opposition party in 1999, an election Wong described as reflecting widespread voter discontent with the government’s handling of the 1997 financial crisis and Anwar’s treatment.

The war on terror has also allowed Mahathir to underscore his claims about the danger of domestic extremist groups and the need to crack down on them. Malaysia has detained at least 90 alleged Islamic terrorists since September 11th, increased surveillance of its citizens, imposed harsher penalties for terrorist financing, and enforced its long-standing Internal Security Act, which allows the government to detain citizens for up to two years without trial or legal counsel based on the mere suspicion of criminal activity.

According to Wong, the war on terror has also intensified debate on the interpretation and role of Islam in Malaysia society, with Mahathir positioning himself as a moderate voice.

While Malaysia appears to value its defense ties with the United States, Wong pointed out that the relationship has to be viewed within the context of domestic sentiments and politics. Malaysia’s colonial history and the government’s fear of the opposition, including the PAS Islamist party, prevent it from working too closely with the U.S. or other western powers. Wong said that the continuing increase in the influence of Islam throughout Malaysian society in the past two decades must be factored into U.S. thinking about future U.S.-Malaysian defense and diplomatic ties.

Wong lent some insight into what the future might hold after Mahathir’s retirement. Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah, Mahathir’s successor, is a former defense, education, foreign affairs and home affairs minister who was once in charge of the police and the special branch for intelligence. He is known as an able administrator and arbitrator. But Mahathir, despite his often inflammatory rhetoric, is seen as a strong leader with a vision who may be “a hard act to follow”, according to Wong. She stated that Abdullah “still has to prove himself as first among equals and make tough and unpopular decisions.”

She outlined some of the key challenges for “Pak Lah,” as Abdullah is known in Malaysia. They include:

• Maintaining cohesion in UMNO – infighting is always a problem;
• Reforming the party to eliminate the cronyism, abuses and corruption that have driven away many supporters, particularly the younger Malay Muslims;
• Handling the political opposition and avoiding backlashes against UMNO and the government. Abdullah is likely to face significant challenges from the PAS, which holds political strength in several states with large rural Malay Muslim populations, as well as Anwar’s National Justice Party (Keadilan) and his aggrieved supporters;
• Dealing with the growing Islamic influence throughout society and preventing moderates from losing ground to conservatives;
• Strengthening state institutions, such as the judiciary, that Mahathir had weakened;
• Keeping the economy growing to provide employment to a rapidly growing Malay population;
• Scaling back preferential policies for Malays to encourage greater Malay competitiveness and respond to growing resentment against preferential policies among non-Malay voters

Ultimately, Wong predicted that, since neither the U.S. nor Malaysia sees any urgent need for change, Mahathir’s departure would not result in a fundamental change to current diplomatic or defense relations between the two countries in the short term. Nevertheless, she emphasized that the relationship must be maintained, with appropriate investments and interactions to advance shared objectives and leverage mutual capabilities, for the U.S. to ensure effective cooperation where and when the need arises for Malaysia to support the war against terror.