CAPP Events: 2004

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Constructing a Chinese Road Map for the North Korea Nuclear Crisis

On January 26, 2003, CAPP hosted a seminar by Dr. John Park, a postdoctoral research fellow at Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, at RAND’s Santa Monica office. Park discussed his efforts to construct a model Chinese road map for resolving the North Korea crisis that represented a synthesis of the analyses Park collected from policymakers and elites.

Analyses for the road map came from Park’s interviews with analysts at Beijing University, the Central Party School and the China Institute for Contemporary International Relations. Park also studied policy papers by Chinese analysts.

Park described China’s evolution from a passive observer propping up North Korea’s failed state to an active mediator willing to engage in bargaining tactics to entice North Korea to the negotiating table. Park attributes this shift to the importance of China’s ambitions to achieve “xiaokang.” A xiaokang society is one in which most people are moderately well off, and economic prosperity is sufficient to move most of the Chinese people to comfortable means. According to Park, China’s government considers the North Korea crisis to be a threat to xiaokang; therefore, xiaokang is the dominant lens of analysis for the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) North Korea policy.

The step-by-step process for constructing the road map included building matrixes that compared information about the Northeast Asian powers (China, South Korea, Japan, and the United States). Rankings of the national interests and motivations of the Northeast Asian powers (including the U.S.) included nuclear non-proliferation, the refugee crisis, ballistic missile development, and Korean reunification. Park stated that nuclear proliferation is of primary concern to China. Although North Korea’s nuclear weapons do not present a direct threat to China, China’s concern is that proliferation in the region could spread. “The greater the number of nuclear states, the greater the chance of instability,” Park stated.

The road map could present opportunities for the development of a strategic partnership between the United States and China. Also, if a road map succeeded in permanently dismantling North Korea’s nuclear program, China’s prestige would soar, Park hypothesized. Park warned that potential threats exist with the road map as well, though. A slow implementation may prolong the crisis and allow North Korea to buy time. Also, a shift in U.S. foreign policy or a new administration could derail Beijing’s diplomacy efforts.