CAPP Newsletter Archive: January 2003
January 2003 Table of Contents
Message from the Director
CAPP
in the News
New RAND Publications on Asia
RAND
Research Highlights
CAPP News and Events
Recommended
Resources
Message
from the Director
This edition of the newsletter features RAND's work related to the current
crisis over North Korea. Dr. Norman Levin and Dr. Yong-Sup Han's new book
explores in depth the politics of the Sunshine policy in South Korea. Dr.
Greg Treverton and Dr. Bruce Bennett have analyzed the current standoff for
South Korean newspapers. The newsletter also summarizes discussions with
South Korean diplomats visiting RAND. In addition, as was described in the
last newsletter, RAND is currently engaged in a study of anti-American
sentiment in South Korea. As always, please send me any comments or questions
you have.
-Nina Hachigian, CAPP Director
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Cause
for Felicitation in Korea
by Gregory F. Treverton and Spencer Kim
Korea Herald
December 25, 2002
While some hasty prognosticators have warned that the recent election of
Roh Moo-hyun as President of Korea does not bode well for Korean-U.S. relations,
the authors argue that Roh's election depended more on issues of national
pride than anti-Americanism. They caution, however, that in order for Washington
to have a real partner in South Korea with Roh at the helm, the U.S. will
have to treat Seoul as a real partner, "not merely a reflex
follower."
Bruce
Bennett Interviewed in the Kookmin Daily
January 3, 2003
The Kookmin Daily newspaper interviewed RAND analyst Dr. Bruce Bennett about
the potential threat North Korea's military power poses to South Korea, Pyongyang's
nuclear weapons program, and the effects of recent protests against the U.S.
military presence in South Korea on the U.S.-ROK relationship.
Read the article (Korean version)
U.S.
Bides Time on North Korean Crisis
James Mulvenon quoted in the Christian Science Monitor
January 3, 2003
North
Korea's expulsion of U.N. nuclear inspectors and declaration
that it would withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
has South Korea, China, Japan, the United States, and Russia
scrambling to find a solution to
the burgeoning crisis. Dr. Mulvenon comments on China's role as a leading
influence on Pyongyang: "The best thing the Chinese can do for us is,
when the North Koreans come to them for aid and succor, they are met with
silence. No hectoring, no lecturing - just silence. That would send the most
powerful message."
China
Hones in on NATO
Evan Medeiros quoted on CNN
November 25, 2002
The U.S.-led war on terrorism has dramatically increased America's military presence in Asia, prompting China to find out more about NATO and its intentions in the region.
Chinese
Warship Finishes Four-month World Tour
James Mulvenon quoted in USA Today
September 23, 2002
One of the most modern warships in the Chinese navy recently returned home
after traveling the longest in both distance and time of any naval deployment
since the founding of the People's Republic of China. "It's a visual
manifestation of (Beijing's) belief that China is a global power...It doesn't
believe it's a global military power. But it's a global power with increasing
military capabilities," Mulvenon commented.
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Sunshine
in Korea: The South Korean Debate over Policies Toward
North Korea
Norman D. Levin and Yong-Sup Han
The evolution of the debate over the South Korean government's "Sunshine" engagement
policy toward North Korea will be an important determinant of how the world
community responds to North Korea's violations of the 1994 Agreed Framework
and other international obligations. This book provides a framework for viewing
South Korean responses to this latest challenge, examining the South Korean
debate over policies toward the North, analyzing the sources of controversy,
and assessing their implications.
Read the report
The
Military and Democracy in Indonesia: Challenges, Politics,
and Power
by Angel Rabasa and John Haseman
Indonesia's military continues to play a critical part in determining Indonesia's
future. The authors of this book examine the role of the military in politics
and society since the fall of President Suharto in 1998. They present several
strategic scenarios for Indonesia, which have important implications for
U.S.-Indonesian relations, and propose goals for Indonesian military reform
and elements of a U.S. engagement policy.
The
People's Liberation Army as Organization: Reference Volume
v1.0
Editors: James C. Mulvenon and Andrew N. D. Yang
While the first four decades of PLA studies have necessarily tended to ignore organizational studies of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), an avalanche of new open sources and so-called "grey literature" (internal or unofficial military-related publications) now permits highly detailed examination of the Chinese military's organizational structure. Accordingly, the PLA field conference co-hosted by CAPP and the Taiwan-based Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies (CAPS) in June 2000 focused on "The PLA as Organization." The resulting report represents a landmark contribution to the field of Chinese military studies.
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RAND
Research Highlights
The RMB: Convertibility and the Exchange
Rate
China has stated that its goal is a stable, but not a pegged, currency. Chinese
leaders have also indicated that full convertibility is an eventual goal.
But the Asian crisis of 1997-1998 has left China's leadership concerned about
the economic vulnerabilities that accompany convertible currencies. RAND
analyst Dr. William Overholt is currently leading a study to explore pressures
for change in the current exchange rate and greater convertibility. Researchers
are also examining the effects and influence of key interests, such as foreign
investors, industry, and the WTO, as well as issues of regional stability.
Poor
Connections: China's Internet Frontier
Numerous obstacles keep the information revolution from spreading unfettered
to the furthest reaches of the globe. The fall 2002 issue of RAND Review
discusses the results of studies conducted by RAND researchers to examine
why the "information superhighway" has hit roadblocks in China
and other countries.
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CAPP
News and Events
RAND
Hosts Conference on Indonesia
Over
60 U.S. and Asian government and military officials, analysts,
and business executives, including representatives of several
Southeast Asian embassies, attended a conference and panel
discussion sponsored by RAND and the United States-Indonesia
Society (USINDO) at RAND's Washington office on December 11.
The event was held in connection with the release of "The
Military and Democracy in Indonesia: Challenges, Politics,
and Power" by Dr. Angel Rabasa and Col. (Ret.) John Haseman.
The Honorable Richard Solomon, President of the United States
Institute of Peace and a member of CAPP's Advisory Board, chaired
the conference. Read more
CAPP
Analyst Drafts Scholars' Declaration on Japanese Reform
Asia Policy Chair William Overholt drafted a declaration on Japanese reform
that was published in the journal Toyo Keizai (Japanese for "The Oriental
Economist") on November 6. The declaration came out of a series of meetings
convened at Harvard University by Professor Ezra F. Vogel and was signed
by several independent scholars from the United States. The statement stresses
that while the Japanese economy has the potential to continue its extraordinary
past achievements, strong measures will be necessary to avert calamity. Read
more
RAND-China
Reform Forum Conference Examines Economic and Security
Issues
Since
1998, the China Reform Forum (CRF), a think tank affiliated
with the Central Party School, and RAND have jointly organized
an annual conference of experts from China and the United States
focusing on economic and security subjects of mutual concern.
The fifth joint conference was held October 31-November 1 in
Beijing. Participants and observers included scholars, business
executives, and government officials from both the United States
and China. Read more
Delegation
from Korean National Defense University Attends Roundtable with
RAND Researchers
On
October 14, CAPP hosted a visit to RAND's Santa Monica office by
a delegation from the Korean National Defense University in Seoul.
Professors and students from the university discussed foreign policy
issues with several RAND analysts. Read more
CMEPP
Director Interviewed by Vietnamese Journalists
On November 25, Dr. Jerrold Green, Director of the Center
for Middle East Public Policy (CMEPP) and Director of International
Programs and Development at RAND, participated in a videoconference
with journalists in Vietnam at the U.S. Embassy in Hanoi regarding
the possibility of a U.S. war with Iraq.
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The following are newsgroups, magazines, portal sites, and other online resources that policy analysts, researchers, and others studying Asia-Pacific policy may find helpful. Please note that CAPP has no control over these sites and is not responsible for their content. Links to other sites are provided for convenience of reference only and are not intended as an endorsement by CAPP or RAND.
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