CAPP Newsletter Archive: July 2003
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July 2003 Table
of Contents
Message from the Director
CAPP
in the News
New RAND Publications on Asia
RAND
Research Highlights
CAPP News and Events
Recommended
Resources
Message
from the Director
I want to call your attention to two new RAND reports. The first, by Charles
Wolf, Nick Eberstadt, and others, examines the extent to which the major
challenges China will face in the next decade -- corruption, HIV, water,
and others -- will affect GDP growth, and by how much. Former Secretary of
Defense William Perry called this book "timely, carefully researched, and
well-written,...a significant contribution [to] this vital issue." The other
report, which I co-authored, takes a broad look at the effect, often profound,
of the information revolution on economics and politics in Asia. As always,
please send us any comments you have.
The newsletter also describes a roundtable that we were very honored to host with India's Deputy Prime Minister, His Excellency Lal Krishna Advani.
-Nina Hachigian, CAPP Director
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China:
Pitfalls on Path of Continued Growth
Commentary by Dr. Charles Wolf, Jr. in the Los
Angeles Times
June 1, 2003
Although China has experienced remarkable economic gains in the past two decades, Wolf warns that potential fault lines such as unemployment, poverty, corruption and pollution, among others, could severely hinder its economic growth, with dramatic consequences for Chinese society, government and party structure. Wolf's op-ed is based on his new book, which is highlighted below.
Sino-US
Ties: A New Sunrise
Dr. Evan Medeiros in the Straits Times (Singapore)
June 11, 2003
The article posits that since September 11th, the United States has readjusted
its policy to regard China as more of a strategic partner than a threat.
Medeiros comments on a Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) report that seems
to support this policy and indicates that Beijing would not threaten the
United States in the next 20 years. "...RAND Corporation's China expert,
Evan Medeiros, said that [the report] helped to silence many of the hawks'
warnings that China is America's primary adversary."
China
Replaces Top Navy Officers Over Sub Disaster
Dr. James Mulvenon in the Washington Post
June 13, 2003
In
a move that some analysts have labeled an unusual sign of
accountability, China recently dismissed its top two navy
officers as a result of the worst military accident since
the 1949 Communist takeover -- a submarine disaster in which
70 sailors and officers died. "In our system we regard
accidents like losing aircraft or accidents on a submarine
as the cost of doing business," Mulvenon said. "In
their system it's still much more political."
North
Korea WMD to Avoid Iraq's Fate
Dr. Bruce Bennett in Korea Times
May 22, 2003
Speaking
at a Korea AeroSpace Policy Institute meeting, RAND analyst
Bruce Bennett warned that the United States and South Korea
have only limited defensive capabilities against a potential
attack from North Korea. He also stated that North Korea "appears
to have concluded that it must have WMD (weapons of mass
destruction) to prevent a fate like the Iraqi regime suffered" --
an assumption that makes resolving the nuclear threat from
Pyongyang very difficult.
Fault
Lines in China's Economic Terrain
by Charles Wolf, Jr., K. C. Yeh, Benjamin Zycher, Nicholas Eberstadt, Sung-Ho
Lee
The authors consider how and by how much China's stellar economic performance
might be impaired by eight potential adversities that China may face in the
next decade. Former Secretary of Defense William Perry said of the book: "Fault
Lines in China's Economic Terrain...should be of compelling interest to government
officials and scholars...timely, carefully researched, and well-written...a
significant contribution [to] this vital
issue."
The
Information Revolution in Asia
by Nina Hachigian and Lily Wu
Hachigian and Wu take a broad look at the economic and political effects
of the information revolution in Asia. The report analyzes Asia's huge role
in the production and consumption of technology; Asia now accounts for over
80% of the total world output of desktop PCs, notebooks, cellular phones
and modems, and China represents the world's largest cell phone market of
over 200 million users. Likewise, information technology (IT) has had a profound
effect on the politics of some Asian nations, both liberal democracies and
one-party states alike.
The
ROK-U.S. Alliance: Where Is It Headed?
by Kim Dong Shin
Originally published in Strategic Forum, Institute for
National Strategic Studies, National Defense University Press
General Kim, a CAPP Visiting Scholar, advocates a new approach to guide the
future of the alliance that includes the drafting of a strategic plan that
defines shared objectives and the means to achieving them. Kim argues that
such a plan is needed to avert the current nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula.
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RAND
Research Highlights
Policy and Health in Asia: Financing
and Allocating
Public Expenditures
How countries finance and allocate public expenditures determines how they
meet their populations' health needs. This report synthesizes RAND research
on public health spending in Asia and recommends several policies that policymakers
can use to improve health status.
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CAPP
News and Events
Deputy
Prime Minister of India Visits RAND
The Deputy Prime Minister of India, His Excellency Lal Krishna Advani, visited RAND's Santa Monica office on June 11th. A distinguished delegation, including India's Home Secretary N. Gopalaswami and the ambassador of India to the United States, Lalit Mansingh, accompanied the Deputy PM. RAND President and CEO Jim Thomson chaired a roundtable discussion attended by several RAND analysts and CAPP Board Member Daniel Yun on U.S.-India relations, India's economy, and India's relationships with China and Russia.
Conference on China and the Internet
CAPP
co-sponsored perhaps the largest U.S. conference on the
Internet in China. "China and the Internet: Technology,
Economy, and Society in Transition," a two-day conference,
was held at the University of Southern
California on May 30-31, 2003.
Pardee RAND Graduate School and Tsinghua University Create Special Scholarship
The Pardee RAND Graduate School (RGS) and Tsinghua University have created a special scholarship that will bring one of Tsinghua's outstanding graduates to RGS each year for the Ph.D. in policy analysis. The candidates are first selected by a panel of six Tsinghua professors and then vetted by the RGS admissions process. This year Tsinghua selected two outstanding graduates, Cong Ze and Zheng Yuhui. "They were so good that the Admissions Committee chose them both," says RGS Dean Bob Klitgaard. "So we will have two inaugural Tsinghua-Pardee RAND Graduate School scholars for the fall of 2003."
Australia's Security Policy and the War on Terrorism
Australia's defense posture towards terrorism has shifted in the past five years. On May 14, CAPP hosted a discussion at RAND's Santa Monica office with visiting fellow Gina Kingston of Australia's Defence Science and Technology Organization (DSTO). Dr. Kingston discussed how Australia's force structure is changing to deal with future threats and how socio-political factors have influenced Australia's response to terrorism.
Green Speaks at Conference on the Future of the Gulf
RAND Director of International Programs and Development Dr. Jerrold Green recently discussed "U.S. Middle East Policy in the Post-Iraq War Era" at a Fujitsu Research Institute conference in Tokyo on "The Post-Iraq War and the Future of the Gulf."
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The following are newsgroups, magazines, portal sites, and other online resources that policy analysts, researchers, and others studying Asia-Pacific policy may find helpful. Please note that CAPP has no control over these sites and is not responsible for their content. Links to other sites are provided for convenience of reference only and are not intended as an endorsement by CAPP or RAND.
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