CAPP Newsletter Archive: March 2003
March 2003 Table of Contents
Message from the Director
CAPP
in the News
New RAND Publications on Asia
RAND
Research Highlights
CAPP News and Events
Recommended
Resources
Message
from the Director
In February, RAND hosted Pakistan's Foreign Minister and Ambassador for a
roundtable with researchers and submitted a report on Islam in Afghanistan's
new constitution to the White House and President Karsai. Our researchers
continue to brief government officials and the media on unfolding events
on the Korean peninsula.
-Nina Hachigian, CAPP Director
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South
Korean Government Says It's Prepared For Worst-Case Scenario
Bruce Bennett on CNN's Daybreak
January 16, 2003
CNN interviewed RAND analyst Bruce Bennett about North Korea's suspected
nuclear capability and the dangers of a worst-case scenario--war-- arising
from the current tension between the U.S. and North Korea. Bennett warned
that, according to Russian intelligence reports, enough plutonium could have
been smuggled into North Korea in the 1990s to make five or more nuclear
weapons. He also cautioned that even the U.S. mainland might not be immune
in a conflict.
North
Korea Just Tip of Iceberg
Greg Jones quoted by United Press International
January 13, 2003
While much attention has been understandably focused on the nuclear crisis
posed by North Korea, global proliferation of all types of non-conventional
weapons, by a variety of countries, is a critical security issue. Jones points
out that successes in nonproliferation made before the 1990s have stalled
in recent years. "Nuclear proliferation is the one that bothers me the
most," said Jones. "We seem to now be losing ground."
Charges
of Illegal Exports to China
James Mulvenon quoted in the New York Times
January 15, 2003
Three
separate recent indictments of Chinese natives for illegally
exporting equipment and trade secrets show a continuing effort
by China to procure high technology from the United States,
particularly in Silicon Valley, according to the Times. "There
is very aggressive economic espionage and reverse engineering
by Chinese commercial enterprises exploiting the diaspora
of Chinese," Mulvenon commented.
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Democracy
and Islam in the New Constitution of Afghanistan
RAND recently convened a group of experts in the fields of Islamic law, constitution
writing, and democracy to offer ideas for Afghanistan's new constitution.
The group discussed the constitutional history and current
politics of Afghanistan, as well as ways that other Muslim countries addressed
Islam in their constitutions. They debated how different provisions of the
future Afghan constitution could incorporate Islam and the advantages and
drawbacks of different formulations. The report was submitted to the White
House and to Afghanistan's President Hamid Karsai.
The
Military and Democracy in Indonesia: Challenges, Politics,
and Power
by Angel Rabasa and John Haseman
Indonesia's military continues to play a critical part in determining Indonesia's
future. The authors of this book examine the role of the military in politics
and society since the fall of President Suharto in 1998. They present several
strategic scenarios for Indonesia, which have important implications for
U.S.-Indonesian relations, and propose goals for Indonesian military reform
and elements of a U.S. engagement policy.
The
Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic
Consequences of Population Change
by David E. Bloom, David Canning, Jaypee Sevilla
Developing countries can spur economic growth by reducing high fertility rates and enacting policies to improve health, education, and create job opportunities, according to a new RAND report. East Asian nations have had the most success in capturing the demographic dividend. The benefits of a falling birth rate and a burgeoning working-age population account for as much as one-third of the region's economic growth, according to the authors.
Read the report or the research brief
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RAND
Research Highlights
Science and Technology Capacity Building
for Development
While the roles of science, technology and innovation are important in economic
development, most developing countries do not have the same level of capacity
to generate new knowledge as advanced countries. The U.S. Agency for International
Development (USAID) is looking at ways to advance developing countries' science
and technology (S&T) capacity. RAND researchers recently completed case
studies of USAID's work in several countries, including efforts to improve
energy efficiency and reduce pollution in India, to examine ways that USAID
can more fully optimize its contributions to S&T capacity in the future.
A new briefing has been posted in draft form to stimulate discussion.
The
PLA and the 16th Party Congress: Jiang Controls the Gun?
James Mulvenon article published in China Leadership Monitor
Winter 2003, Issue 5
For Western observers of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the 16th Party
Congress presented a curious mixture of the past, the present, and the future.
Mulvenon's article explores the implications of Jiang's gambit, analyzes
the retirements of senior PLA leaders and the biographies of their replacements,
and offers some predictions about the choice of defense minister and the
future course of Chinese Communist Party-PLA relations.
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CAPP
News and Events
CAPP
Hosts Pakistani Foreign Minister and Ambassador
CAPP
held a roundtable discussion on January 24 with the visiting
Foreign Minister of Pakistan, Mian Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri.
Kasuri was accompanied by Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, Ambassador
of Pakistan to the United States, and other officials. The
delegation discussed a variety of topics with RAND analysts
and CAPP board members. Read more
New
CAPP Advisory Board Members Hail from Korea
The CAPP Advisory Board welcomed two prominent representatives of Korea,
Chairman Lee Woong-Yeul and Mr. Michael Kim. Board member Daniel Yun introduced
them to RAND and arranged a visit to RAND's Santa Monica office last year. Read
more
Political
Islam and Militancy in Southeast Asia
RAND
Senior Policy Analyst Angel Rabasa discussed political Islam
in Southeast Asia at the Elliott School of International
Affairs, George Washington University, on February 5, and
at the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations on February 11.
Rabasa is currently heading a RAND project on the Muslim
World after 9/11. Read more
Korean
Ministry Representatives Discuss Future of US-Korea Relations
with RAND Researchers
CAPP
hosted a visit to RAND's Santa Monica office from officials of
the Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The group met with several
RAND researchers on December 9 to solicit insight and analysis
on a study they are conducting to forecast the world environment
in 2020 and its impact on Korea. Read
more
China
and the Internet: A Game of Cat and Mouse?
On
December 12, 2002, CAPP hosted a presentation at RAND's Santa
Monica office by Guo Liang, professor at the Chinese Academy
of Social Sciences and a well-known authority on China's
Internet, about China's Internet censorship and usage. He
discussed the findings of his study of both users and non-users
to gage the impact of the Internet on society, politics,
and economics. Read more
Researchers
and Journalists in Asia Meet with
RAND Director of International Programs and Development
Jerrold Green has given video presentations to U.S.
Embassies in Beijing, Hanoi, and Tokyo to help interpret
U.S. policy towards Iraq for journalists and researchers
in each country.
The
U.S. and Korea: Where Do We Go From Here?
RAND analyst Gregory Treverton presented research
on the future of North Korea and U.S. policy at a conference
at the University of California, Irvine on January 31. Read
more
Scholars
from Taiwan Visit RAND
On November 20, CAPP hosted a roundtable with analysts
from several research institutions in Taiwan. The topics
of cross-strait relations, China's economy, and warming trends
in the relationship between the U.S. and China
dominated the discussion. Read more
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The following are newsgroups, magazines, portal sites, and other online resources that policy analysts, researchers, and others studying Asia-Pacific policy may find helpful. Please note that CAPP has no control over these sites and is not responsible for their content. Links to other sites are provided for convenience of reference only and are not intended as an endorsement by CAPP or RAND.
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