Events Archive - 2008: Geopolitical Risks in a Global Economy
Presentation by Gregory F. Treverton, Director, Center for Global Risk and Security, RAND Corporation, at the Business Continuity and Risk Management Forum, July 15, 2008. The idea was to move from broad drivers of geopolitical risk to selected implications, especially ones of interest to the group, primarily chief information and security officers. Several commented that the found it useful in “connecting the dots,” by giving them the chance to raise their sights from their immediate tasks to the broader context in which they were working.
From Drivers to Selected Trends
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World Export of Goods, 1950—2003, and of Goods and Services, 1970—2003
Nation is Changing Too - Immigration in 2002
What is Driving Geopolitics
- Global warming
- IT revolution
- Economic globalization
- Global demographics
- Other technological revolutions - or not
- Revolution in military affairs - or not
- Identity politics - “us” versus “them”
- Role of state and law
- U.S. foreign policy
Energy, Environment Divide (but perhaps less than expected)
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Oil rich increase influence
Oil poor losers - Africa, but perhaps China Carbon contentious
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Information Drives on, Companies in the Lead
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Digital divide diminishes More and more technology “foreign” Sensors ubiquitous Debate about limits, |
China has Taken 400 million People out of Poverty
Percent of Chinese over 65
China Puzzles
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Ages while still poor
Some “break” in “Leninist capitalism”
More and more technology ‘foreign’ Sensors ubiquitous Debate about limits, |
Islamic Extremism Peaks?
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Attacks since 9/11 unimpressive but
AlQaeda losing battle for “hearts and minds”
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A Few Wild Cards
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Current trends accelerate
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“Surprises”
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