CMEPP in the News: Commentaries: 2007
RAND researchers often write commentaries for publications on a variety of topics. This page lists commentaries and op-eds about the Middle East. For a complete list of commentaries and op-eds by RAND staff, visit the RAND Newsroom.
Long-term instability? - Dec. 31, 2007
The tragic assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto casts a dark shadow across Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state with a long history of militarism and militancy. According to this commentary by C. Christine Fair for the Washington Times, this event could move Pakistan towards a deeper and irreversible slide into Islamist violence.
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The State of the Afghan Insurgency - Dec. 11, 2007
Six years after the overthrow of the Taliban regime, Canada, NATO, and the Afghan government
stand at an important crossroads. Testimony presented by Seth G. Jones before the Canadian Senate National Security and Defence Committee on December 10, 2007.
Congressional Testimony
U.S. Should Take Advantage of Improved Security in Iraq to Withdraw - Dec. 4, 2007
The recent improvement in security in Iraq may provide the U.S. military with a chance to achieve the best realistic outcome of the conflict to date: the extrication of the bulk of it’s forces. This topic is the subject of a commentary by David C. Gompert for the San Francisco Cronicle.
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The right way to withdraw - October 15, 2007
We're involved too deeply in Iraq and Afghanistan to exit suddenly without fixing our mess, states James Dobbins in this commentary for the Los Angeles Times. Having toppled the Iraqi government, the United States has assumed weighty responsibilities for about 28 million people whom we cannot in good conscience shirk.
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Ready for Another Mideast War? - September 20, 2007
On Sept. 6, Israeli aircraft bombed Syria, seem to have violated Turkish airspace, and the Israeli government has offered no explanation. Does this mean we on the verge of another Middle East war? This and other questions are discussed by James Dobbins in this timely commentary for the International Herald Tribune.
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Unofficial Diplomacy Efforts Can Have a Positive Effect in the Middle East, South Asia Over Long Term - September 19, 2007
Unofficial diplomatic discussions can play a significant role in shaping attitudes in the Middle East and Asia, but are best used as a long-term strategy without expectations for dramatic policy shifts, according to a report issued today by the RAND Corporation.
News Release 
Full Document
A New Tact on Iraq - August 29, 2007
As the sixth anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the United States approaches, al Qaeda appears to be gaining strength. America remains on alert. As Brian Michael Jenkins states in this commentary for the Washington Post, it's reasonable to wonder whether, how and when this conflict will end.
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The Real Analogy for Iraq - August 27, 2007
The conflict raging in Iraq has been compared to many earlier wars, but the best historical comparison has been largely overlooked. Based on this commentary by John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt for United Press International the war that is the most fitting historical reference point to Iraq today is the Spanish Civil War (1936-1939).
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Are the Sunnis changing sides - August 17, 2007
The warring parties in Iraq seem to be more interested in fighting each other than expelling the United States. According to James Dobbins in this commentary for the International Herald Tribune, it seems that Sunni insurgents are increasingly coming to realize that they cannot successfully resist both the United States and the Shiite-dominated government. Therefore increasing numbers of Sunni fighters are developing a tactical accommodation with the less dangerous enemy, the United States.
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Spending Aid to Palestinians Wisely - August 16, 2007
Efforts to develop the Palestinian economy and self-government depends heavily on foreign assistance for desperately poor Palestinians and also how the funds will be spent. However, according to this commentary by David Aaron and C. Ross Anthony for the International Herald Tribune the United States and other donor nations must join with the Palestinian leadership to ensure that the funds are used to boost Palestinian support for the new government and to promote economic policies that improve the lives of Palestinians.
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United States Should Reassess Priorities, Next Steps in Iraq - August 9, 2007
U.S. political persuasion, security policies, and economic assistance in Iraq should focus on reducing sectarian and other violence. The United States should also consider its next steps in the event that violence does or does not decline.
News Release Full Document Research Brief
How to Talk to Iran - July 22, 2007
American and Iranian ambassadors are scheduled to meet soon in Baghdad to discuss Iraq. Is this encounter a departure from decades of non-communication? In this commentary by James Dobbins for the Washington Post, we find out that American and Iranian officials have met many times over the years.
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Blair's Project for a New Palestine - July 7, 2007
The release of an abducted BBC journalist in Gaza is being seen by some as an attempt by Hamas to curry favour with Tony Blair, Britain's newly appointed international envoy to Israel and Palestine. One of his first efforts, as discussed in this commentary by Robert Hunter for the Project Syndicate may be the thankless task of helping Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas build institutions for a viable state, following Hamas's military takeover of Gaza.
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Afghan Problem is Regional - July 5, 2007
While Iranian support for the Taliban would be disturbing, there is a serious danger of overreaction in the United States. Seth G. Jones discusses in this commentary for the United Press International that inflating the Iranian role risks further destabilization of Afghanistan and could negatively impact a potential avenue for U.S.-Iranian dialogue.
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In Ukraine, Four Steps to Democracy - June 28, 2007
The Ukrainian president´s decision to dissolve parliament and call for new elections demonstrated a resolve and decisiveness that had been often lacking in the past. According to this commentary by by Taras Kuzio and F. Stephen Larrabee for the Washington Post, the elections could give Ukraine's revolution — recently mired in crisis — new momentum and have an impact elsewhere in the post–Soviet space.
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Iraqi Refugee Challenge - June 28, 2007
According to UN estimates, about 2.2 million Iraqis — close to half of them children — have fled their country since the US invasion in 2003. As discussed by Kristen Cordell in this commentary for United Press International, without a greater US effort, young Arabs will remain a ripe and malleable target for recruitment by radical Muslim groups.
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Rand Studies Make Recommendations For A Successful Palestinian State - June 19, 2007
The RAND Corporation today issued the most comprehensive recommendations ever made for the success of an independent Palestinian state. The proposals, which include a landmark rail, highway, and infrastructure link between the West Bank and Gaza would open the door to dramatic new development and would give Palestinians new access to jobs, food, water, education, health care, housing and public services.
News Release
Two Years After Andijan: Assessing the Past and Thinking Towards the Future - June 13, 2007
Two years after the events in Andijan province, in Uzbekistan, both the events themselves and their implications continue to be questioned and reassessed as provided by Olga Oliker in testimony presented before the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe on May 18, 2007.
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Saudi Arabia: Shi´a Pessimistic About Reform, but Seek Reconciliation - June 1, 2007
The Saudi Shi´i news service al–Rasid released its second annual human rights report on discriminatory practices against the Kingdom's Shi´i minority. In this commentary by Fred Wehrey for the Arab Reform Bulletin, the report cites Salafi hardliners dissuading the ruling family from providing further concessions, intensified by the support of an Islamic presidentical candidate in Turkey that could significantly impact Turkey's relations with the West.
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Risks and Riddles - June 1, 2007
During the cold war, much of the job of U.S. intelligence was puzzle-solving. However the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rise of terrorism changed all that. The major challenge now is to frame the mysteries of terrorizm, which often grow out of too much information as dicussed by Gregory F. Treverton in this commentary for Smithsonian Magazine.
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Is America Prepared for Disaster? - May 30, 2007
How prepared is America for the next terrorist attack or natural disaster? Government and the private sector have spent billions of dollars and created the Department of Homeland Security to make America more secure. Brian Jackson discusses in this commentary for the Washington Post that there still is no satisfactory answer to this question.
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A war of nerves in Turkey - May 12, 2007
Turkey is entering a critical policial period due to the standoff surrounding the selection of a new president. The situation, as discussed by Stephen Larrabee for Project Syndicate, has intensified with the governmnent's support of an Islamic presidentical candidate and the strong position of the miliarty as defenders of Turkey's secular democracy. Effects of this could significantly impact Turkey's relations with the West.
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Afghanistan: Why Canada Should Stay - May 7, 2007
There is a growing movement in Canada to withdraw troops from Afghanistan. In this commentary for the Toronto Star, Seth G. Jones discusses how such a move would be a tragic mistake. Withdrawing would be a severe blow to NATO´s efforts in Afghanistan and would ultimately undermine Canada´s own security.
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The Counterinsurgency Fight: Think Globally, Lose Locally - April 27, 2007
Confronted with insurgents in several countries and a true global terror network operating in others, some people are tempted to incorrectly to view these opponents as a monolithic force, waging a global insurgency to destroy freedom. The reasons for this misconception and proposals for successful responses are the subject of this commentary by James T. Quinlivan and Bruce R. Nardulli for the Washington Post.
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Easing U.S.-Iran Tensions - April 19, 2007
The release of the British sailors and marines by Iran was considered a victory for common sense in this volitile region. Now it is important that U.S. and Iranian diplomats take advantage of this victory to begin de-escalation of tensions between these two key players in the Persian Gulf region. In this commentary by Robert E. Hunter for United Press International important issues are highlighted that may be used to bring the necessary parties to the table.
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RAND Proposes Blueprint for Building Moderate Muslim Networks - April 17, 2007
While Muslim radicals are a minority, they hold an important advantage over their nonradical counterparts in that they have developed extensive networks spanning the Middle East, North America, and Europe. This research brief summarizes work to develop a plan for building moderate Muslim networks to counter the message of Islamist radicals in the war of ideas within Islam.
Research Brief
Who lost Iraq? - April 16, 2007
The United States is relentlessly being urged to withdraw by Iraqi and American public opinion. Inevitably the debate over who lost Iraq is quickly gaining momentum. While the politicians seek blame, the soldiers in Iraq claim, rightly enough, that they are the only ones mobilized for this war, and decry the scarcity of on-site civilian experts as discussed in this commentary by James Dobbins for the International Herald Tribune.
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The Taliban threat is not just America's burden - April 12, 2007
When President Bush meets European Union leaders for the annual US-EU summit in Washington on April 30, Afghanistan will be high on the agenda. The summit will offer the EU a chance to move beyond rhetoric and take action to help the US - and themselves - by standing up to the Taliban, a terrorist group that hijacked a nation and is trying to get it back as discussed by Robert Hunter in this commentary for the Financial Times.
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Iraqi Security Forces - Defining Challenges and Assessing Progress - March 28, 2007
Testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, by Olga Oliker.
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Coping With Iran: Confrontation, Containment or Engagement? - March 21, 2007
Over 350 people recently attended a RAND–sponsored policy forum on Iran in Washington DC. The forum includes a series of discussions on the future of U.S.–Iranian relations featuring government officials from the United States and Iran, foreign affairs journalists, and policy analysts from RAND and other think tanks including: the Brookings Institution, Council on Foreign Relations, the New America Foundation, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and the American Enterprise Institute.
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Flagging Ally: Pakistan's Lapses Are Hurting the War on Terror - Mar. 18, 2007
Vice President Dick Cheney´s recent blunt warning to Pakistan President Musharraf to crack down on terrorism signals a growing consensus that Pakistan needs to do more to counter terrorist groups operating on its soil. However, as stated in a commentary by Seth G. Jones and John Gordon IV for the San Diego Union-Tribune, it must be recognized that any meaningful crackdown on extremist groups by the Pakistani government will have domestic political risks.
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Iran's Covert War in Iraq - March 16, 2007
There is understandable skepticism about the claim by U.S. military officials in Baghdad that Shi´ite militias in Iraq are receive support and training from elite units of the Iranian special forces. Although we may never have the smoking gun, states Rick Brennan in this commentary for the Washington Times, it is hard to believe such a large-scale covert action could take place by Iranian forces in Iraq without both the direct knowledge and approval of the Iranian government.
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Ending Afghanistan´s Civil War - March 8, 2007
The resurgence of civil war in Afghanistan can be attributed to two fundamental causes; the failure of the United States, the Karzai administration, and the rest of the international community to take advantage of the lull following the collapse of the Taliban regime in late 2001 to strengthen the new Afghan government and the fragmentation of the international coalition that the United States put together to stabilize and reconstruct Afghanistan. Testimony by James Dobbins before the United States Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
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Central Asia´s Great Game - Mar. 5, 2007
The recent election of the former deputy prime minister and health minister, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, as president of Turkmenistan could have a profound influence on events far from the remote Central Asian nation. With one of the largest natural gas reserves in the world, Moscow, Beijing, Washington and many European capitals will be watching closely to see what policies Berdymukhammedov will pursue, as discussed by F. Stephen Larrabee in a commentary for the United Press International.
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My Enemies Enemy - Feb. 27, 2007
American forces are being attacked from all sides by Sunni insurgents, ex–Baathists, and Al Qaeda operatives, with no sign of abating. In fact, one of the few things that the combatants have in common is their opposition to the American presence. The United States somehow has maneuvered itself into a position were most Arabs and Persian alike regard America as their enemy, as discussed in this commentary by James Dobbins that appeared in the International Herald Tribune.
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America´s Turkey problem - Feb. 23, 2007
As America struggles to stabilize Iraq while fighting rages, the last thing it needs is to become embroiled in a new crisis with Turkey. But that is where Washington appears headed if Congress passes a resolution accusing Turkey of committing genocide against Armenians from 1915 to 1918. This is the subject of a commentary by F. Stephen Larrabee and Suat Kiniklioglu that appeared in the United Press International.
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Iraqís Jobs-for-Peace Mirage - Feb. 11, 2007
As the wisdom of President Bush´s proposed “surge” of US troops is debated across the US and around the world, another question about the US President´s new policy to avert all-out civil war there is coming to the fore. Can the US funded plan to reopen Iraqi state-owned enterprises divert young men from the insurgency and sectarian militia´s, or will state employees continue to get paid for not working? Keith Crane of the RAND Corporation provides this discussion for the Project Syndicate.
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America's long wars - Feb. 2, 2007
It is clear that U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, along with his leadership team in the Pentagon, will devote the preponderance of their time contending with the “long war” against radical Islam. At five years and counting, the “long war” is living up to its name, having now lasted longer than the U.S. Civil War, as well as America´s involvement World War I and World War II combined as discussed in this commentary by Andrew R. Hoehn and David A. Shlapak that appeared in the United Press International.
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Afghanistan's Local Insurgency - Jan. 31, 2007
The rising violence and the near certainty of a Taliban spring offensive have triggered calls for an increase in U.S. military forces in Afghanistan. But a military strategy is not likely to succeed. Counterinsurgencies are almost always won by establishing a viable and legitimate government at the local level that can win popular support as stated by Seth G. Jones in this commentary that appeared in the International Herald Tribune.
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Ending Afghanistan's Civil War - Jan. 30, 2007
The resurgence of civil war in Afghanistan can be attributed to two fundamental causes; first, the failure of the United States, the Karzai government, and the international community to strengthen the capacity of the new Afghan government to project its authority, provide public services, and security to the population beyond Kabul and second, the fragmentation of the international coalition to stabilize and reconstruct based on the testimony presented by James Dobbins before the House Armed Services Committee.
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Put Iraqi Insurgents Out of Business - Jan. 29, 2007
The militias and insurgent groups that have turned Iraq into a killing field can't function without money. Hence, President Bush should make sharply reducing the flow of money to these groups a top priority. If successful, this effort could give Iraq's government a fighting chance to curb the violence. In this commentary for the Christian Science Monitor, Keith Crane discusses a 5-point plan to starve militia fighters and insurgent groups of the cash they need to fight.
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Coordination Could Breed Control in Iraq - Jan. 24, 2007
Teamwork and coordination are vital for success in all sorts of activities -- on the athletic field, in business, in government and in war. Yet too often, the different branches of the U.S. military and the U.S. government in Iraq have failed to effectively coordinate their activities with each other and with their Iraqi counterparts as stated in this commentary by Austin Long in washingtonpost.com.
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A Bad Plan for the Middle East - Jan. 17, 2007
President George W. Bush's most recent address to the American people on Iraq may be the scariest presidential message since Ronald Reagan announced that he had launched a nuclear strike against the Soviet Union. Reagan was just kidding. Bush is not. The far graver risk inherent in the president´s plan is that the war in Iraq may spread to neighboring countries according to a commentary by James Dobbins in the International Herald Tribune.
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Central Asia´s other ‘Turkmenbashis’ - Jan. 15, 2007
The sudden death in late December of Saparmurat Niyazov, Turkmenistan´s authoritarian president-for-life who declared himself "Turkmenbashi" (Leader of all Turkmens), jeopardizes stability in a country that is an increasingly important supplier of energy to Europe. Worse, given the absence of a clearly designated successor and the weakness of civil society and other political institutions, his death could have repercussions across Central Asia as discussed in this commentary by F. Stephen Larrabee in Project Syndicate.
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Old front against terrorism - Jan. 14, 2007
It would be premature to portray Ethiopia's swift defeat of the Islamist forces in Somalia as a victory in the global war on terror. The December invasion blunted the immediate threat of Somalia's takeover by Islamist hard-liners. Al-Qaeda fugitives who found sanctuary in Somalia are again on the run. The internationally recognized but thus far ineffectual transitional federal government has been restored. There is now an opportunity to begin rebuilding Somalia from the ground up as stated in this commentary by Brian Jenkins in San Diego Union-Tribune.
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Europe's Afghan Test - Jan. 2, 2007
On Sept. 12, 2001, the European allies rose as one in support of the United States, struck by terrorists the day before. For the first time in its history, the North Atlantic Council invoked NATO's cardinal commitment, the "all for one" pledge to defend any ally subject to aggression. Five years later, the European allies watch the U.S. debate about Iraq with a mixture of schadenfruede and bemused detachment, but also with a good deal of apprehension and even fear for the impact of possible U.S. failure in Iraq as discussed by Robert E. Hunter in a commentary that appeared in the United Press International.
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