Dissertations
A number of students have used Robust Decision Making and other Pardee Center Methodologies in their dissertations.
Dissertations by Pardee RAND Graduate School Students
Reconsidering California Transport Policies: Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in an Uncertain Future — 2012
Applies robust decision methods to evaluate California's transportation policies that considers multiple views of the future, and identifies strategies that consistently reduce emissions at acceptable costs regardless of future conditions.
Managing New Orleans Flood Risk in an Uncertain Future Using Non-Structural Risk Mitigation — 2010
Considers proposals to augment the existing flood-damage protection system in New Orleans with “nonstructural” risk mitigation programs focused on single-family homes.
Improving Cost-Effectiveness and Mitigating Risks of Renewable Energy Requirements — 2008
Assesses the social welfare implications of a policy of requiring 25% of electricity and motor vehicle transportation fuels supplied to U.S. consumers to come from renewable energy sources, such as wind power and ethanol, by 2025.
From the Outside In: Shaping the International Criminal Court — 2007
Assess current U.S. policy regarding the International Criminal Court and discusses the effectiveness of other, perhaps more robust, policies.
Robust Decisions and Deep Uncertainty: An Application of Real Options to Public and Private Investment in Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies — 2007
This dissertation assesses the prospects for private-sector investment in hydrogen and fuel cell technologies using an innovative application of real options analysis. Its goal is to identify investment strategies that are robust against alternative futures and to assess the trade-offs of various policy instruments.
Exploratory Modeling and Adaptive Strategies for Investment in Standard Services to Facilitate Public Service Networks — 2006
Compares several strategies for delivering common services and finds that complementary modular services improve social welfare by eliminating redundancies and expanding the customer base. The author uses a case study of a proposed investment in nationwide consolidated public safety wireless networks in Korea to demonstrate that well-designed adaptive strategies can mitigate risks and enhance long-term investment values.
New Methods for Identifying Robust Long-Term Water Resources Management Strategies for California — 2006
Ensuring sufficient, high-quality water supplies for California will be a great challenge for water resource managers. This dissertation documents the development and use of a model to generate quantitative scenarios of future water demand in California and applies a new analytic method for decisionmaking under uncertainty to the water supply and demand management challenge facing Southern California.
Astronomical Odds: A Policy Framework for the Cosmic Impact Hazard — 2005
Addresses the cosmic impact hazard (the threat to the Earth posed by asteroids and comets) as an extreme example of a low-probability, high-consequence policy problem and presents a comprehensive framework for dealing with the technical and societal uncertainties surrounding the impact hazard. The author assesses the robustness of a proposed policy intervention: social reassurance by means of a demonstrated mitigation capability.
Zeroing In: A Capabilities-based Alternative to Precision Guided Munitions Planning — 2005
Uses the methodologies of exploratory modeling and robust planning to create a capabilities-based framework for the analysis of purchasing decisions for precision guided munitions. Combining both methodologies makes it possible to create improved and flexible munitions portfolios that perform well across a variety of possible futures while operating within an economic framework.
Dissertations by Non-PRGS Students
Exploratory Modeling and analysis: A promising method to deal with deep uncertainty — 2008
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