Futures Methodologies
Scenario Discovery
Recent studies point to a significant gap between current scenario practice and its potential contributions. Our research has significantly improved the analytic underpinnings of "scenario-discovery," one key step in an RDM analysis that may help bridge this gap. Scenario discovery uses statistical/data-mining algorithms to find policy-relevant clusters of cases in large, multi-dimensional databases of simulation model results. Conveniently interpreted as scenarios, these clusters help illuminate and quantify the tradeoffs among alternative strategies under deep uncertainty.
Thinking inside the box: A participatory, computer-assisted approach to scenario discovery — 2009
Comparing Algorithms for Scenario Discovery — 2008
A new analytic method for finding policy-relevant scenarios — 2007
A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios — 2006
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