Pardee Center Publications
Longer-Range Studies
Much of the policy analysis that RAND has published over the years might
literally qualify as "futures" studies. However, most of that
work has been aimed at the relatively near future – 1 to 5 years
out. Quite a number of studies have been done that looked at least 10
years, and as many as several decades into the future. It is that work
that is featured here.
There are three areas in which RAND has done a number of studies that
worked the longer-range future – work for the Netherlands
on its storm surge barrier, energy estimates and
climate change work. Studies in those three areas
are called out separately below.
The remaining works are sorted by the rough time periods that they addressed.
These are divided below into five time segments:
10-19 years | 20-29 years | 30-49 years | 50 or more | the indefinite future
The following publications are listed in reverse chronological order. Publications that are available online will have a link to a "Full Document"; links to "Document Abstract " generally include an abstract of the publication along with ordering information.
Netherlands
Policy Analysis of Water Management for the Netherlands. Vol. I, Summary
Report - 1983
B.F. Goeller, Stanley Charles Abraham, Allan F. Abrahamse, J.H. Bigelow,
J.G. Bolten, James C. DeHaven, David L. Jaquette, N.A. Katz, T.F. Kirkwood,
R.L. Petruschell, Tiina Repnau, J.P. Stucker, Warren E. Walker, Louis
H. Wegner, Mary E. Vaiana, R-2500/1-NETH
Document Abstract
Controlling the Oosterschelde Storm-Surge Barrier. Vol. I, Summary Report:
A Policy Analysis of Alternative Strategies - 1979
Louis Catlett, Sorrel Wildhorn, Richard E. Stanton, A. Roos, J. Al,
R-2444/1-NETH
Document Abstract
Controlling the Oosterschelde Storm-Surge Barrier. Vol. II, Sensitivity
Analysis: A Policy Analysis of Alternative Strategies
- 1979
Sorrel Wildhorn, Richard E. Stanton, R-2444/2-NETH
Document Abstract
Controlling the Oosterschelde Storm-Surge Barrier. Vol. III, Predicting
North Sea Water Levels: A Policy Analysis of Alternative Strategies
- 1979
Louis Catlett, Gaineford Hall, R-2444/3-NETH
Document Abstract
Controlling the Oosterschelde Storm-Surge Barrier--A Policy Analysis
of Alternative Strategies: Vol. IV, Basin Response to North Sea Water
Levels: The BARCON SIMPLIC Model - 1979
Louis Catlett, Richard E. Stanton, Orhan M. Yildiz, R-2444/4-NETH
Document Abstract
Protecting an Estuary from Floods. Vol. III, Assessment of Long-Run
Ecological Balances, an Addendum Calibration Data: A Policy Analysis of the Oosterschelde
- 1978
J.H. Bigelow, C. Dzitzer, J.C.H. Peeters, R-2121/3A-NETH
Document Abstract
Protecting an Estuary from Floods. Vol. I, Summary Report: A Policy
Analysis of the Oosterschelde - 1977
B.F. Goeller, Allan F. Abrahamse, J.H. Bigelow, J.G. Bolten, David
M. De Ferranti, James C. DeHaven, T.F. Kirkwood, R.L. Petruschell, R-2121/1-NETH
Document Abstract
Protecting an Estuary from Floods. Vol. II, Assessment of Security from
Flooding: A Policy Analysis of the Oosterschelde -
1977
Allan F. Abrahamse, J.H. Bigelow, R.J. Gladstone, B.F. Goeller, T.F.
Kirkwood, R.L. Petruschell, R-2121/2-NETH
Document Abstract
Protecting an Estuary from Floods. Vol. III, Assessment of Long-Run
Ecological Balances: A Policy Analysis of the Oosterschelde
- 1977
J.H. Bigelow, James C. DeHaven, C. Dzitzer, P. Eilers, J.C.H. Peeters,
R-2121/3-NETH
Document Abstract
Protecting an Estuary from Floods. Vol. IV, Assessment of Algae Blooms,
a Potential Ecological Disturbance: A Policy Analysis of the Oosterschelde
- 1977
J.H. Bigelow, J.G. Bolten, James C. DeHaven, R-2121/4-NETH
Document Abstract
Protecting an Estuary from Floods--A Policy Analysis of the Oosterschelde:
Vol. V, Anaerobic Conditions and Related Ecological Disturbances
- 1977
J.H. Bigelow, James C. DeHaven, R-2121/5-NETH
Document Abstract
Protecting an Estuary from Floods. Vol. VI, Selected Social and Economic
Aspects: A Policy Analysis of the Oosterschelde - 1977
David M. De Ferranti, F.J.P. Heuer, J.W. Weehuizen, R-2121/6-NETH
Document Abstract
Energy
E-Vision 2000, Shaping Our Future by Reducing Energy Intensity in the
U.S. Economy. Vol. I, Proceedings of the Conference
- 2003
CF-184-DOE
Full Document
Transition Paths to a New Era of Green Industry: Technological and Policy
Implications - 2002
Robert J. Lempert, P-8067
Document Abstract
Electricity Requirements for a Digital Society -
2002
Walter Baer, Scott Hassell, Ben Vollaard, MR-1617-DOE
Full Document
Finding Transatlantic Common Ground on Climate Change?
- 2002
Robert J. Lempert, LRP-200104-12
Document Abstract
The Heavy Oil Resources of the United States - 1983
Richard Nehring, Ronald Wayne Hess, Murray Kamionski, R-2946-DOE
Document Abstract
Oil and Energy Demand in Developing Countries in 1990
- 1980
Charles Wolf, Daniel A. Relles, Jaime Navarro, P-6526
Document Abstract
The Demand for Oil and Energy in Developing Countries
- 1980
Charles Wolf, Daniel A. Relles, Jaime Navarro, R-2488-DOE
Document Abstract
International Arrangements for Uranium Enrichment
- 1979
Michael Mihalka, Marvin Miller, Kenneth A. Solomon, R-2427-DOE
Document Abstract
A Simulation Analysis of U.S. Energy Demand, Supply, and Prices
- 1975
Kent P. Anderson, R-1591-NSF/EPA
Document Abstract
Energy Use and Conservation in the Residential Sector: A Regional Analysis
- 1975
Stephen H. Dole, R-1641-NSF
Document Abstract
Oil and Gas Supplies for California: Past and Future
- 1975
Richard Nehring, R-1850-CSA/RF
Document Abstract
A USAF Energy Consumption Projection Model - 1974
W.D. Gosch, W.E. Mooz, R-1553-ARPA
Document Abstract
Energy Demand in the Future--Reducing the Growth Rate
- 1973
Ronald D. Doctor, P-4992
Document Abstract
A Methodology for Projecting the Electrical Energy Demand of the Manufacturing
Sector in California - 1973
W.E. Mooz, C.C. Mow, R-0991-NSF/CSRA
Document Abstract
A Probabilistic Forecasting Methodology Applied to Electric Energy Consumption
- 1973
Richard G. Salter, R-0993-NSF
Document Abstract
A Methodology for Projecting the Electrical Energy Demand of the Residential
Sector in California - 1973
C.C. Mow, W.E. Mooz, S.K. Anderson, R-0995-NSF/CSRA
Document Abstract
A Methodology for Projecting the Electrical Energy Demand of the Commercial
Sector in California - 1973
W.E. Mooz, C.C. Mow, R-1106-NSF/CSRA
Document Abstract
A Methodology for Projecting the Electrical Energy Demand in California:
A User's Guide to the Model - 1973
S.K. Anderson, R-1107-NSF/CSRA
Document Abstract
California's Electricity Quandary: III. Slowing the Growth Rate
- 1972
Ronald D. Doctor, Kent P. Anderson, Morton B. Berman, Stephen H. Dole,
Morlie Hammer Graubard, Paul T. McClure, C.B. Smith, R-1116-NSF/CSA
Document Abstract
California's Electricity Quandary: I. Estimating Future Demand
- 1972
W.E. Mooz, C.C. Mow, R-1084-NSF/CSRA
Document Abstract
Future Energy Demand and Its Effect on the Environment
-1972
D.N. Morris, R-1098-NSF
Document Abstract
Climate Change
Carrots and Sticks for New Technology: Abating Greenhouse Gas Emissions
in a Heterogeneous and Uncertain World - 2002
Robert J. Lempert, David A. Robalino, LRP-200000-44
Document Abstract
Climate-Change Strategy Needs to Be Robust - 2002
Robert J. Lempert, M.E. Schlesinger, LRP-200100-62
Document Abstract
Adaptive Strategies for Climate Change - 2002
Robert J. Lempert, M.E. Schlesinger, LRP-200200-19
Document Abstract
The Impacts of Climate Variability on Near-Term Policy Choices and the
Value of Information - 2001
Robert J. Lempert, M.E. Schlesinger, Steven C. Bankes, Natalia G. Andronova,
RP-906
Document Abstract
Anticipating Technological Change: Combinatorial Chemistry and the Environment
- 2001
Susan A. Resetar, Elisa Eiseman, MR-1394.0-EPA
Full Document
When We Don't Know the Costs or the Benefits: Adaptive Strategies for
Abating Climate Change - 1996
Robert J. Lempert, M.E. Schlesinger, Steven C. Bankes, RP-557
Document Abstract
Future Emission Scenarios for Chemicals That May Deplete Stratospheric
Ozone -1988
James K. Hammitt, Frank A. Camm, P.S. Connell, W.E. Mooz, Kathleen
A. Wolf, Donald J. Wuebbles, Anil Bamezai, R-3628-JMO/RC
Document Abstract
Projected Use, Emissions, and Banks of Potential Ozone-Depleting Substances
- 1986
Timothy H. Quinn, Kathleen A. Wolf, W.E. Mooz, James K. Hammitt, Syam
Sarma, Thomas W. Chesnutt, N-2282-EPA
Document Abstract
The Problem of Climate: A Review for the Nonspecialist
- 1975
W. Lawrence Gates, P-5472
Document Abstract
10-19 years
The Global Course of the Information Revolution: Recurring Themes and
Regional Variations - 2003
Richard O. Hundley, Robert H. Anderson, Tora K. Bikson, C.R. Neu, MR-1680-NIC
Full Document
The Global Technology Revolution: Bio/Nano/materials Trends and Their
Synergies with Information Technology by 2015 - 2001
Philip S. Antón, Richard Silberglitt, and James Schneider, MR-1307-NIC
Full Document
The Class of 2014: Preserving Access to California Higher Education
- 1998
George S. Park, Robert J. Lempert, MR-971-EDU
Full Document
Forecasting Enlisted Supply: Projections for 1979-1990
- 1979
Richard L. Fernandez, N-1297-MRAL
Document Abstract
New Centers of Power in the Pacific Basin 1985-1995
-1977
Guy J. Pauker, P-5849
Document Abstract
Projecting the Growth of Television Broadcasting: Implications for Spectrum
Use - 1976
Rolla Edward Park, Leland L. Johnson, Barry Fishman, R-1841-FCC
Document Abstract
Air Force Command and Control Information Processing in the 1980s: Trends
in Software Technology - 1974
Donald W. Kosy, R-1012-PR
Document Abstract
Computers in the 1980s: Trends in Hardware Technology
-1974
Rein Turn, P-5189
Document Abstract
The Probable State of Computer Technology by 1980, with Some Implications
for Education - 1971
Frederick W. Blackwell, P-4693
Document Abstract
Forecasting Asian Strategic Environments for National Security Decisionmaking:
A Report and a Method - 1970
W. Wilcox, RM-6154-PR
Document Abstract
Modeling the Economic Development of a Poorly Endowed Region: The Northeast
of Thailand -1970
John L. Enos, RM-6185-ARPA
Document Abstract
20-29 years
Exploring Advanced Technologies for the Future Combat Systems Program
- 2002
John Matsumura, Randall Steeb, Thomas J. Herbert, John Gordon, Carl
A. Rhodes, Russell W. Glenn, Mike Barbero, Fred Gellert, Phyllis Kantar,
Gail Halverson, Robert Cochran, Paul Steinberg, MR-1332-A
Full Document
E-Vision 2000, Key Issues That Will Shape Our Energy Future: Summary
of Proceedings, Scenario Analysis, Expert Elicitation, and Submitted Papers
- 2001
CF-170-DOE
Full Document
The Global Course of the Information Revolution, Political, Economic,
and Social Consequences: Proceedings of an International Conference
-2000
Richard O. Hundley, Robert H. Anderson, Tora K. Bikson, James A. Dewar,
Jerrold D. Green, Martin C. Libicki, C.R. Neu, CF-154-NIC
Full Document
Scenarios for Evolution of Air Traffic Control -
1981
Robert Wesson, Kenneth A. Solomon, Randall Steeb, Perry W. Thorndyke,
Keith Wescourt, R-2698-FAA
Document Abstract
Energy Alternatives for California: Paths to the Future
- 1975
William R. Ahern, Ronald D. Doctor, William R. Harris, Albert J. Lipson,
D.N. Morris, Richard Nehring, James C. DeHaven, Morlie Hammer Graubard,
David L. Jaquette, A.D. Lee, W.E. Mooz, Richard G. Salter, Kathleen A.
Wolf, R-1793-CSA/RF
Document Abstract
Air Force Command and Control Information Processing in the 1980s: Trends
in Hardware Technology - 1972
Rein Turn, R-1011-PR
Document Abstract
Population Growth and Resource Requirements for U.S. Education
- 1972
William P. Butz, Paul L. Jordan, R-1033-CPG
Document Abstract
Comments on Future Air Transportation Systems - 1966
T.F. Kirkwood, P-3362
Document Abstract
Metropolitan Populations to 1985: Trial Projections
- 1964
Ira S. Lowry, RM-4125-RC
Document Abstract
30-49 years
A Metaphor for Thinking About Changes in Army Doctrine
- 1988
James A. Dewar, Morlie H. Levin, P-7487
Document Abstract
Some Changes in Information Technology Affecting Marketing in the Year
2000 - 1968
Paul Baran, P-3717
Document Abstract
Prospects of Technological Progress -1967
Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg, P-3643
Document Abstract
Value-Considerations in Public Policy Issues of the Year 2000
- 1967
N.H. Rescher, P-3664
Document Abstract
50 or more
Patterns in American Intellectual Frontiers - 1990
Carl H. Builder, N-2917-A
Document Abstract
Demographic Challenges in America's Future - 1982
William P. Butz, Kevin F. McCarthy, Peter A. Morrison, Mary E. Vaiana,
R-2911-RC
Document Abstract
Report on a Long-Range Forecasting Study - 1964
Theodore J. Gordon, Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg, P-2982
Document Abstract
The Indefinite Future
The Information Revolution in the Middle East and North Africa
- 2003
Grey Burkhart and Susan Older, MR-1653-NIC
Full Document
Vision of the Future of Scientific Research: Focal Points for Policy (Main Report in Dutch) - 2002
James P. Kahan, Erik J.G. van de Linde, Mirjam van het Loo, Janneke
Vader, Han de Vries, MR-1433/1-RE/OCW/EZ
Full Document
The Emergence of Peer Competitors: A Framework for Analysis
- 2001
Thomas S. Szayna, Daniel L. Byman, Steven C. Bankes, Derek Eaton,
Seth G. Jones, Robert E. Mullins, Ian O. Lesser, William Rosenau, MR-1346-A
Full Document
Networks and Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime, and Militancy
- 2001
John Arquilla, David Ronfeldt editors
Full Document
The Future of the Information Revolution in Latin America: Proceedings
of an International Conference - 2001
Gregory F. Treverton, Lee Mizell, CF-166-NIC
Document Abstract
Information and Biological Revolutions: Global Governance Challenges--Summary
of a Study Group - 2000
Francis Fukuyama, Caroline S. Wagner, MR-1139-DARPA
Full Document
Expandability of the 21st Century Army - 2000
James A. Dewar, Steven C. Bankes, Sean Edwards, MR-1190-A
Full Document
In Athena's Camp: Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age
- 1997
John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, editors, MR-880-OSD/RC
Full Document
Tribes, Institutions, Markets, Networks: A Framework About Societal
Evolution - 1996
David F. Ronfeldt, P-7967
Document Abstract
The Advent of Netwar - 1996
John Arquilla, David F. Ronfeldt, MR-789-OSD
Full Document
Future Worlds and Roles, a Template to Help Planners Consider Assumptions
About the Future Security Environment - 1995
William Schwabe, P-7929
Document Abstract
Social Security Financing: Informing Decisions for Uncertain Futures
- 1988
Audrey Chin, P-7493
Document Abstract
Countercyclical U.S. Fertility and Its Implications
- 1978
William P. Butz, Michael P. Ward, P-6263
Document Abstract
Military Implications of a Possible World Order Crisis in the 1980s
- 1977
Guy J. Pauker, R-2003-AF
Document Abstract
Establishment of a Long-Range Planning Capability
- 1969
Stephen H. Dole, Gene Harvey Fisher, Elwyn D. Harris, J. String,
RM-6151-NASA
Document Abstract
New Developments in Early Forecasting of Public Problems: A New Intellectual
Climate - 1967
Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg, P-3576
Document Abstract
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