Identifying and Reducing Climate-Change Vulnerabilities in Water Management Plans — 2008

Groves, D. G., Knopman, D., Lempert, R., Berry, S., and Wainfan, L. RB-9135-NSF, RAND, Santa Monica, CA.

Research Brief

Preparing for an Uncertain Future Climate in Inland Empire – Documented Briefing — 2008

Groves, D. G., Lempert, R., Knopman, D., Berry, S. DB-550-NSF, RAND, Santa Monica, CA.

Documented Briefing

Presenting Uncertainty About Climate Change to Water Resource Managers - Summary of Workshops with the Inland Empire Utilities Agency — 2008

Groves, D. G., Knopman, D., Lempert, R., Berry, S., and Wainfan, L. TR-505-NSF, RAND, Santa Monica, CA.

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A New Analytic Method for Finding Policy-Relevant Scenarios — 2007

Groves, D G, Lempert, R J. Global Environmental Change, 17, 73-85, 2007.

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Early Detection of Changes in the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Implications for the Design of Ocean Observation Systems — 2007

Keller, K., C. Deutsch, M. G. Hall and D. F. Bradford. Journal of Climate, Volume 20, Issue 2, January 2007, pp. 145-157.

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Economically Optimal Risk Reduction Strategies in the Face of Uncertain Climate Thresholds — 2007

McInerney, D. and K. Keller. Climate Change, Published online, January 2007.

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Managing the Risk of Uncertain Threshold Responses: Comparison of Robust, Optimum, and Precautionary Approaches

Lempert, Robert J. and Myles T. Collins, Risk Analysis, Vol 27, No 4, 2007, p. 1009-1026.

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A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios — 2006

Lempert, R. J., Groves, D. G., Popper, S. W., and Bankes, S. C. Management Science, 52(4).

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Rethinking Water Policy Opportunities in Southern California – An Evaluation of Current Plans, Future Uncertainty, and Local Resource Potential — 2006

Wilkinson, R., and Groves, D. G. UC Santa Barbara Water Policy Program, Santa Barbara.

Read report at Donald Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, UC Santa Barabara

Success Matters: Recasting the Relationship among Geophysical, Biological, and Behavioral Scientists to Support Decision Making on Major Environmental Challenges — 2006

Knopman, D. S. Water Resources Research, Vol. 42, W03S09.

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New Methods for Identifying Robust Long-Term Water Resources Management Strategies for California — 2005

Groves, D. G. Pardee RAND Graduate School, Santa Monica, CA.

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Quantified Scenarios of 2030 California Water Demand — 2005

Groves, D. G., Matyac, S., and Hawkins, T. California Water Plan Update 2005, California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento, CA.

Read report at California Department of Water Resources

Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis — 2003

Robert J. Lempert, Steven Popper, and Steven C. Bankes, RAND Corporation, MR-1626-RPC, 2003.

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Assessing Key Vulnerabilities and the Risk from Climate Change

A. Patwardhan, S. Semenov, S. Schneider, I. Burton, C. Magadza, M. Oppenheimer, B. Pittock, A. Rahman, J. Smith, A. Suarez, F. Yamin, K. Keller, A Todorov, A. Finkel, D. MacMynowski, M. Mastrandrea, M. Fuessel, J. Corfee-Morlot, R. Sukumar, J.-P. van Ypersele, J. Zillman

Chapter 19 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, Working group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, contributing author

The Challenge of Delivering Good Science to Decision Makers — 2006

D. Knopman

Water Resources IMPACT, Vol. 8, No. 6, Nov 2006.

Detecting Potential Changes in the Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26°N in the Atlantic — 2007

Baehr, J., K. Keller, and J. Marotzke

To be available at: http://dx.doi.org/2010.1007/s10584-10006-19153-z, Climate Change

The Dynamics of Learning about a Climate Threshold — 2007

Keller, K. and D. McInerney

Access Draft PDF at Climate Dynamics

ERGO: An Efficient and Reliable Global Optimization Algorithm — 2007

Tuttle, B., K. Keller, and D. McInerney

Journal of Global Optimization

Global optimization of an Observing System Design for the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation — 2007

Baehr, J., D. McInerney, K. Keller, and J. Marotzke

Access Draft PDF at Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology

Managing the Risks of Climate Thresholds: Uncertainties and Needed Information

Keller, K., G. Yohe, and M. Schlesinger

Climatic Change

Oxygen Observations Improve the Detection Capabilities of an Ocean Observation Array — 2007

Brennan, C., R. Matear, and K. Keller

Access Draft PDF at Journal of Geophysical Research – Oceans

The Regrets of Procrastination in Climate Policy — 2007

Keller, K., A. Robinson, D. F. Bradford, and M. Oppenheimer

Access Draft PDF (Environmental Research Letters)

Robust Strategies in the Face of Uncertain Climate Thresholds — 2007

McInerney, D., R. Lempert, and K. Keller

Risk Analysis

The Sensitivity of Probability Assessments to Time Units and Performer Characteristics

Yechiam, E., & Budescu, D.V.

Decision Analysis

Valuation of Vague Prospects with Mixed Outcomes

Budescu, D.V. & Templin. S

Chapter in T.Connolly, T. Kugler, C. Smith, and Y. So, eds., Decision Modeling and Behavior in Uncertain and Complex Environments (Springer)

What is the Economic Value of Information About Uncertain Climate Thresholds?

K. Keller, S.-R. Kim, J. Baehr, D. F. Bradford, and M. Oppenheimer

Access Draft PDF as a chapter in Integrated Assessment, The State of the Art