Publications and Presentations
Published Research (in reverse-chronological order)
Identifying and Reducing Climate-Change Vulnerabilities in Water Management Plans — 2008
Groves, D. G., Knopman, D., Lempert, R., Berry, S., and Wainfan, L. RB-9135-NSF, RAND, Santa Monica, CA.
Preparing for an Uncertain Future Climate in Inland Empire – Documented Briefing — 2008
Groves, D. G., Lempert, R., Knopman, D., Berry, S. DB-550-NSF, RAND, Santa Monica, CA.
Presenting Uncertainty About Climate Change to Water Resource Managers - Summary of Workshops with the Inland Empire Utilities Agency — 2008
Groves, D. G., Knopman, D., Lempert, R., Berry, S., and Wainfan, L. TR-505-NSF, RAND, Santa Monica, CA.
A New Analytic Method for Finding Policy-Relevant Scenarios — 2007
Groves, D G, Lempert, R J. Global Environmental Change, 17, 73-85, 2007.
Early Detection of Changes in the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Implications for the Design of Ocean Observation Systems — 2007
Keller, K., C. Deutsch, M. G. Hall and D. F. Bradford. Journal of Climate, Volume 20, Issue 2, January 2007, pp. 145-157.
Economically Optimal Risk Reduction Strategies in the Face of Uncertain Climate Thresholds — 2007
McInerney, D. and K. Keller. Climate Change, Published online, January 2007.
Managing the Risk of Uncertain Threshold Responses: Comparison of Robust, Optimum, and Precautionary Approaches
Lempert, Robert J. and Myles T. Collins, Risk Analysis, Vol 27, No 4, 2007, p. 1009-1026.
A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios — 2006
Lempert, R. J., Groves, D. G., Popper, S. W., and Bankes, S. C. Management Science, 52(4).
Rethinking Water Policy Opportunities in Southern California – An Evaluation of Current Plans, Future Uncertainty, and Local Resource Potential — 2006
Wilkinson, R., and Groves, D. G. UC Santa Barbara Water Policy Program, Santa Barbara.
Read report at Donald Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, UC Santa Barabara
Success Matters: Recasting the Relationship among Geophysical, Biological, and Behavioral Scientists to Support Decision Making on Major Environmental Challenges — 2006
Knopman, D. S. Water Resources Research, Vol. 42, W03S09.
New Methods for Identifying Robust Long-Term Water Resources Management Strategies for California — 2005
Groves, D. G. Pardee RAND Graduate School, Santa Monica, CA.
Quantified Scenarios of 2030 California Water Demand — 2005
Groves, D. G., Matyac, S., and Hawkins, T. California Water Plan Update 2005, California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento, CA.
Read report at California Department of Water Resources
Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis — 2003
Robert J. Lempert, Steven Popper, and Steven C. Bankes, RAND Corporation, MR-1626-RPC, 2003.
Submitted or In Press (in alphabetical order)
Assessing Key Vulnerabilities and the Risk from Climate Change
A. Patwardhan, S. Semenov, S. Schneider, I. Burton, C. Magadza, M. Oppenheimer, B. Pittock, A. Rahman, J. Smith, A. Suarez, F. Yamin, K. Keller, A Todorov, A. Finkel, D. MacMynowski, M. Mastrandrea, M. Fuessel, J. Corfee-Morlot, R. Sukumar, J.-P. van Ypersele, J. Zillman
Detecting Potential Changes in the Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26°N in the Atlantic — 2007
Baehr, J., K. Keller, and J. Marotzke
To be available at: http://dx.doi.org/2010.1007/s10584-10006-19153-z, Climate Change
The Dynamics of Learning about a Climate Threshold — 2007
Keller, K. and D. McInerney
Access Draft PDF at Climate Dynamics
ERGO: An Efficient and Reliable Global Optimization Algorithm — 2007
Tuttle, B., K. Keller, and D. McInerney
Global optimization of an Observing System Design for the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation — 2007
Baehr, J., D. McInerney, K. Keller, and J. Marotzke
Access Draft PDF at Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology
Managing the Risks of Climate Thresholds: Uncertainties and Needed Information
Keller, K., G. Yohe, and M. Schlesinger
Oxygen Observations Improve the Detection Capabilities of an Ocean Observation Array — 2007
Brennan, C., R. Matear, and K. Keller
Access Draft PDF at Journal of Geophysical Research – Oceans
The Regrets of Procrastination in Climate Policy — 2007
Keller, K., A. Robinson, D. F. Bradford, and M. Oppenheimer
Access Draft PDF (Environmental Research Letters)
Robust Strategies in the Face of Uncertain Climate Thresholds — 2007
McInerney, D., R. Lempert, and K. Keller
The Sensitivity of Probability Assessments to Time Units and Performer Characteristics
Yechiam, E., & Budescu, D.V.
Valuation of Vague Prospects with Mixed Outcomes
Budescu, D.V. & Templin. S
What is the Economic Value of Information About Uncertain Climate Thresholds?
K. Keller, S.-R. Kim, J. Baehr, D. F. Bradford, and M. Oppenheimer
Access Draft PDF as a chapter in Integrated Assessment, The State of the Art
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