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Publications and Presentations

Published Research (in reverse-chronological order)

Identifying and Reducing Climate-Change Vulnerabilities in Water Management Plans — 2008

Groves, D. G., Knopman, D., Lempert, R., Berry, S., and Wainfan, L. RB-9135-NSF, RAND, Santa Monica, CA.

Preparing for an Uncertain Future Climate in Inland Empire – Documented Briefing — 2008

Groves, D. G., Lempert, R., Knopman, D., Berry, S. DB-550-NSF, RAND, Santa Monica, CA.

Presenting Uncertainty About Climate Change to Water Resource Managers - Summary of Workshops with the Inland Empire Utilities Agency — 2008

Groves, D. G., Knopman, D., Lempert, R., Berry, S., and Wainfan, L. TR-505-NSF, RAND, Santa Monica, CA.

A New Analytic Method for Finding Policy-Relevant Scenarios — 2007

Groves, D G, Lempert, R J. Global Environmental Change, 17, 73-85, 2007.

Early Detection of Changes in the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Implications for the Design of Ocean Observation Systems — 2007

Keller, K., C. Deutsch, M. G. Hall and D. F. Bradford. Journal of Climate, Volume 20, Issue 2, January 2007, pp. 145-157.

Economically Optimal Risk Reduction Strategies in the Face of Uncertain Climate Thresholds — 2007

McInerney, D. and K. Keller. Climate Change, Published online, January 2007.

Managing the Risk of Uncertain Threshold Responses: Comparison of Robust, Optimum, and Precautionary Approaches

Lempert, Robert J. and Myles T. Collins, Risk Analysis, Vol 27, No 4, 2007, p. 1009-1026.

A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios — 2006

Lempert, R. J., Groves, D. G., Popper, S. W., and Bankes, S. C. Management Science, 52(4).

Rethinking Water Policy Opportunities in Southern California – An Evaluation of Current Plans, Future Uncertainty, and Local Resource Potential — 2006

Wilkinson, R., and Groves, D. G. UC Santa Barbara Water Policy Program, Santa Barbara.

Success Matters: Recasting the Relationship among Geophysical, Biological, and Behavioral Scientists to Support Decision Making on Major Environmental Challenges — 2006

Knopman, D. S. Water Resources Research, Vol. 42, W03S09.

New Methods for Identifying Robust Long-Term Water Resources Management Strategies for California — 2005

Groves, D. G. Pardee RAND Graduate School, Santa Monica, CA.

Quantified Scenarios of 2030 California Water Demand — 2005

Groves, D. G., Matyac, S., and Hawkins, T. California Water Plan Update 2005, California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento, CA.

Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis — 2003

Robert J. Lempert, Steven Popper, and Steven C. Bankes, RAND Corporation, MR-1626-RPC, 2003.

Submitted or In Press (in alphabetical order)

Detecting Potential Changes in the Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26°N in the Atlantic — 2007

Baehr, J., K. Keller, and J. Marotzke

The Dynamics of Learning about a Climate Threshold — 2007

Keller, K. and D. McInerney

ERGO: An Efficient and Reliable Global Optimization Algorithm — 2007

Tuttle, B., K. Keller, and D. McInerney

Global optimization of an Observing System Design for the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation — 2007

Baehr, J., D. McInerney, K. Keller, and J. Marotzke

Managing the Risks of Climate Thresholds: Uncertainties and Needed Information

Keller, K., G. Yohe, and M. Schlesinger

Oxygen Observations Improve the Detection Capabilities of an Ocean Observation Array — 2007

Brennan, C., R. Matear, and K. Keller

The Regrets of Procrastination in Climate Policy — 2007

Keller, K., A. Robinson, D. F. Bradford, and M. Oppenheimer

Robust Strategies in the Face of Uncertain Climate Thresholds — 2007

McInerney, D., R. Lempert, and K. Keller

The Sensitivity of Probability Assessments to Time Units and Performer Characteristics

Yechiam, E., & Budescu, D.V.

Valuation of Vague Prospects with Mixed Outcomes

Budescu, D.V. & Templin. S

What is the Economic Value of Information About Uncertain Climate Thresholds?

K. Keller, S.-R. Kim, J. Baehr, D. F. Bradford, and M. Oppenheimer
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