Projects Related to Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Research under this project has lead to work with several leading resource management agencies helping them to include the potential impacts of climate change in their long-term plans. These projects include work led by David Groves with Southern California's Inland Empire Utilities Agency (IEUA), the California Department of Water Resources, the California Energy Commission, Denver Water, and the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California. Work has also included hurricane protection and coastal restoration planning in Louisiana and flood risk mitigation for New Orleans. A project under the leadership of Steven Popper is working with Israel's Ministry of National Infrastructure, Ministry of Finance, and the Prime Minister's office to examine the role of natural gas in Israel's long-term energy future.

Natural Gas and Israel's Energy Future

Israel can make natural gas usage a bigger part of its energy portfolio without jeopardizing its security, but even more importantly, the nation needs to make conservation measures a priority in its future energy plans.

Impacts on U.S. Energy Expenditures and Greenhouse-Gas Emissions of Increasing Renewable-Energy Use

Dramatic progress in renewable energy technology is needed if the United States desires to produce 25 percent of its electricity and motor vehicle fuel from renewable sources by 2025 without significantly increasing consumer costs.

The Federal Role in Terrorism Insurance: Evaluating Alternatives for Renewing TRIA in an Uncertain World

Taxpayers save money and businesses are better protected with the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) in place than if the act is allowed to expire. TRIA allows the insurance industry to play a larger role in compensating losses caused by smaller terrorist attacks by transferring some of the risk for the largest attack to the government.

Presenting Uncertainty About Climate Change to Water-Resource Managers

Climate change will affect water supplies in California, but few water-management agencies have formally included it in their plans. Robust decisionmaking methods can help identify vulnerabilities related to climate change and evaluate the most effective options for managing those risks.

A New Analytic Method for Finding Policy-Relevant Scenarios

Scenarios play a prominent role in policy debates over climate change, but questions continue about how best to use them. A new analytic method, based on robust decisionmaking, can be applied to water resource management in California and climate change policy questions.

RAND Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition

Established in 2001, the RAND Pardee Center aims to enhance the overall future quality and condition of human life by aggressively disseminating and applying new methods for long-term policy analysis in a wide variety of policy areas where they are needed most.

Robust Decisionmaking (RDM)

RDM has been written up in the 2010 World Bank Development Report, the 2009 NAS report Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate, and the 2009 U.S. Climate Change Science Program Report on Best Practices in Communicating and Characterizing Uncertainty.