Decision Making Under Uncertainty Research Team

This project brings together world renown experts in the psychology of judgment and decision making, abrupt climate change, water policy, and the development of new computer based methods to support decision making under uncertainty.

Principal Investigators

Robert Lempert, a senior scientist at RAND, has been a leading developer of robust decisionmaking methods.

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David Budescu, professor of psychology at the University of Illinois, has a particular interest in decisionmaking under ambiguity.

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Klaus Keller, assistant professor of geosciences at Penn State, is a leading developer of integrated assessment approaches to assess policy responses to abrupt climate change. His research focuses on two main questions:

  • how can one detect anthropogenic climate change in the oceans? and
  • how can one use this scientific information to inform the design of sound climate management strategies?

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Lead Researchers

David Groves, associate policy researcher at RAND, is a developer of robust decisionmaking methods and has worked to apply these methodologies to long-term water resources planning.

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Debra Knopman, a RAND vice president and former Deputy Assistant for Water and Science at the Department of Interior, is an expert on water policy. Previous positions include member of the U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Water and Science at the Department of the Interior. She also held several different positions at the U.S. Geological Survey and, before that, was a professional staff member of the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works.

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Sandra Berry, behavioral social scientist at RAND, is the Senior Director of RAND's Survey Research Group.

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Additional Project Participants

Catherine Brennan is a graduate student in the Department of Geosciences at Penn State University. Her research focuses on improving detection of anthropogenic climate change in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation using hydrographic observations.

Benjamin Bryant is a doctoral fellow in Policy Analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School and holds a B.S. in mathematics from Harvey Mudd College. His research interests include computational methods to support robust decisionmaking, and investigating potential improvements to the regulatory process via increased transparency and expanded uncertainty analysis.

Myles Collins is a doctoral fellow in Policy Analyis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School and holds a B.S. in environmental engineering from Northwestern University and an M.P.P. from UCLA. His research interests include the use of information in individual and group decisionmaking processes and the incorporation of market mechanisms into environmental policies.

Lynne Wainfan is a doctoral fellow in Policy Analyis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School and holds a B.S. in Aerospace Engineering from the University of Michigan, an M.S. in Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering from UCLA, and an M.Phil. in Policy Analysis from the Pardee RAND Graduate School. Her research interests include investment decision making under conditions of deep uncertainty, and the effects of communications media on group decision making. She has over 20 years' experience in the aerospace industry, most recently serving as the Chief Strategist for Boeing Space Services Co.