Global Demographic Trends and Their Implications

The latter half of the 20th century was one of the most dynamic periods of population change in human history. Advances in health care and nutrition helped people live longer and sharply reduced infant mortality around the world. As a result, the world's population doubled from 3 billion in 1950 to 6 billion in 1999. Although global population growth rates slowed after the mid-1960s, the world's population continues to grow. Ninety-five percent of this growth is occurring in developing countries. At the same time, birth rates in general have declined, in some places precipitously. In several European and Asian nations, fertility rates are now below replacement level, causing populations to decline. One result of these trends: A world bifurcated between low-growth (or negative growth), aging developed nations, where most of the world's wealth and jobs are concentrated, and high-growth, youthful developing nations, where most of the world's population is concentrated. What these trends imply and how they will play out provides the central focus of our work on global demographic trends.

Our work in this area has examined the following topics:

• Population change and economic development
• Global population shifts and their implications for immigration trends and labor markets
• Low fertility and population aging in Europe: causes, consequences, and policy implications
• Trends in global aging and the need for cross-national research to inform policies on aging
• The health and demographic transitions in Asia
• The importance of U.S. funding for international demographic research

See publications on this topic.