Has the population boom really turned into a bust, as numerous stories and columns have been proclaiming? Are international family planning efforts obsolete, as many of these accounts imply? Not yet, according to a new issue paper and accompanying research report from RAND.

Worldwide, the reports observe, the number of children born per woman has fallen by about half since 1950. The sharpest declines have occurred in East Asia and Latin America. Fertility rates in Japan and much of Western Europe have dropped below the level needed to keep those populations from shrinking over time.

Lost in the ballyhoo surrounding these trends, however, is the fact that global population continues to grow rapidly – by 80 million people annually, the equivalent of a Germany each year and an Africa every decade. Some 95 percent of this growth is concentrated in the developing nations of the world. And in many of those countries, the authors emphasize, fertility rates remain high and family planning programs continue to be critically important.

Though the precise effect of family planning programs is hard to measure, some estimates indicate that they are responsible for more than 40 percent of the worldwide decline in fertility over the last three decades. But while they are both effective and inexpensive, financial support for these programs has been under attack. Congress cut U.S. Agency for International Development family planning spending for several years running, in part because opponents have linked these efforts with abortion.

Ironically, the researchers point out, evidence from many countries indicates that by preventing unintended pregnancies, increased access to contraception substantially reduces the number of abortions. In Russia, for example, women now average 2.5 abortions in their lifetimes, down from 4.5 in 1970.

The authors make these key points:

• Most of the world’s population growth occurs in poor nations whose socioeconomic development is most likely to be hindered by high fertility. In sub-Saharan Africa, for example, the total fertility rate is 6.0 children per woman.

• "Population momentum" – the phenomenon of continuing growth even after fertility declines – remains strong in many regions where the rate of childbearing per woman has fallen because a record proportion of women are in their childbearing years. By the year 2000, nearly half a billion women – mostly in developing countries – will be in the 15-to-24 year age group.

• Among women in developing countries, there is a widespread preference for smaller families. Closing the gap between their preference and behavior – what demographers term the "unmet need for contraception" – can reduce unintended pregnancies and abortions alike. This is true even in some countries where the fertility rate is low.

• Family planning can offer a wide variety of health and quality-of-life benefits for women and children and economic advantages for developing countries. Donor countries also benefit as these countries become more productive trading partners and more stable and cooperative political actors.

"Now is not the time to curtail support for family planning programs in developing countries," emphasize authors Julie DaVanzo and David M. Adamson.

Their issue paper, Family Planning in Developing Countries: An Unfinished Success Story, is based on a broader study, The Value of Family Planning Programs in Developing Countries, by Rodolfo A. Bulatao, a demographer and RAND consultant. Both reports were prepared for RAND’s Population Matters project, a program to assess and communicate the policy-relevant results of demographic research that is funded by the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation and the United Nations Population Fund. DaVanzo, a senior RAND economist, directs the project.

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